PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I’d up it to 6-12” for the LV. I think we get into the heavy banding for at least a few hours tomorrow night. I don’t buy the models that completely miss us with it. Can see that happening. If that does happen, I could see 12-20 inches as far west as the I-95 metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Oddly enough the euro bombs the low deeper than the NAM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Looks like a deform band through the heart of bucks/montco/chester/Delaware counties and another by the shore. In between there will likely be a subsidence(sp) zone that sees less accumulations. You can see that hinted here. Massive move towards the gfs though, game on! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6-12" at 10:1 ECM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Kind of surprised that Watches up in Lehigh/Berks haven’t been upgraded to Warnings yet. Will undoubtedly happen in 2hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Kind of surprised that Watches up in Lehigh/Berks haven’t been upgraded to Warnings yet. Will undoubtedly happen in 2hrs The main forecast update is now finalized usually between 1-2 AM/PM. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley. At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley. At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big. Sounds like a good call for Berks to Lehigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley. At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big. It was good seeing that Euro run. I’m thinking about a foot at least in the northern Philly suburbs - maybe higher if we get the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 29 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said: He just put out a new video. He surrendered. Now states it will tilt negative and will be a prolonged event Yesterday he stated quick mover and no negative tilt. Surprised he was so far off yesterday He just about doubled his totals for our area I’m fine with Hurricane. He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been. I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between. The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño. It is time. Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12z ECs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: Oddly enough the euro bombs the low deeper than the NAM. It’s still playing catch up but time is almost up. It’s like the kid in school rushing to answer the last 5 questions on the test before extended time has come to an end at the conclusion of the school day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 First and only call: shore points: 16-24”+ maybe a jackpot of 30” though I think 24” will be the lollipops. Potential for 30” is there though. I 95/295/195/476 corridor 10-16” I think there will be lollipops of 20” wherever the 2nd deformation band away from the shore sets up in here. Unfortunately closer to 10” or possibly even a “bust” of 7-8” whoever gets caught in between the 2 deformation bands. Lehigh Valley: 6-12” also depends on how far that deformation band makes it nw but I think at minimum 6” is looking like a good bet. Mickeytims house: 0” … we can only hope. i think this will be a region wide win. Some will just win more than others lol I expect tomorrow during the day will mostly be snow tv, possibly an inch or two on grassy surfaces but once the sun sets and intensity picks up it’s off to the races. 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 EPS is amazing as expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Blue Dream said: EPS is amazing as expected Yep much further west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep much further west Can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Can you post it? More tucked members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 warnings hoisted. Winter Storm Warning Severity: Severe Significant threat to life or property Weather Event Onset 7:00 AM (EST), February 22 Description * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Some blowing snow is likely which could lead to reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. Action Recommended Make preparations per the Description. Urgency Take action within next hour. Affected Area Berks Issued By National Weather Service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This is going to be one hell of a storm y'all, easily Top 5 for some and some near the Jersey coast may even see their largest storm ever. Enjoy it and savor it, I will be living vicariously through all of y'all 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Newman said: Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning It’s happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was Clustered west. Those easterly lows probably dragging mean down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'd chase this one if I wasn't sick. Can't believe the Goofus might actually get one right this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 does anyone think this will come even more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, Newman said: Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning Blizzard warnings to the Delaware River now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Winter Storm Warning for 8-16in in the Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15z SREF did not disappoint. 9z to 15z trend 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, jwilson said: I'd chase this one if I wasn't sick. Can't believe the Goofus might actually get one right this season. No need to chase, we’re all getting crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 51 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I’m fine with Hurricane. He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been. I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between. The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño. It is time. Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010. 2009-10 was technically a strong el nino, as it went above 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI. So our last moderate el nino was 2002-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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