Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Nomz]

Just now, bncho said:

GEFS looks like it removed all the eastern outliers

[DDweatherman]

The stage really is set for the euro here to either give us confidence or do what it’s done all season (get better at 18z then take an absolute shit at 1230am)

[jayyy]

GFS with full ensemble support versus the world. What could go wrong

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If it were up to me, tomorrow midday after 12z runs come in would probably be a good time to issue watches. One thing going for NWS is that this storm doesn’t happen during commute, at least until it’s over New England

Some of the model output is wild. 966 lp at our latitude on the Canadian. There will be watches up by tomorrow night for the Eastern shore at this rate.

[ravensrule]

Just now, 87storms said:

Some of the model output is wild. 966 lp at our latitude on the Canadian. There will be watches up by tomorrow night for the Eastern shore at this rate.

There will be watches up for Frederick tomorrow night. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The stage really is set for the euro here to either give us confidence or do what it’s done all season (get better at 18z then take an absolute shit at 1230am)

For once I think the handwriting’s on the wall

[Eskimo Joe]

HR66 on the 00z GFS has a pretty sick death back right over DC to Annapolis. Legit vertical velocities at 700mb. Someone is gonna get the goods it this keeps up for another 24 hrs.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

HR66 on the 00z GFS has a pretty sick death back right over DC to Annapolis. Legit vertical velocities at 700mb. Someone is gonna get the goods it this keeps up for another 24 hrs.

HR 72 is just sick. It's pure weenie porn. Wow.  

[balltermen]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

See yall on Sunday

if my bf didn't support my favorite thing in the world, he'd need to find a place to sleep for a week. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

HR 72 is just sick. It's pure weenie porn. Wow.  

Did you just turn on the porn now?. It’s always better live. 

[Ji]

This is paste falling at night with wind. Enjoy no power. Oh man.

Nah. This ain’t Feb 2010

[ravensrule]

Just now, balltermen said:

if my bf didn't support my favorite thing in the world, he'd need to find a place to sleep for a week. 

Please don’t tell us what your favorite thing is, my innocent mind couldn’t handle it. 

[Amped]

The 250mb jet has been more amped up and further west each of the past 4 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/xlxrxyI.gif

[balltermen]

Just now, Ji said:

Nah. This ain’t Feb 2010

nobody really knows how much we got on 2/9. I don't trust anyone's measurements. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

The 250mb jet has been more amped up and further west each of the past 4 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/xlxrxyI.gif

Love that trend. It backing up on the last run is a sweet look. 

[balltermen]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Please don’t tell us what your favorite thing is, my innocent mind couldn’t handle it. 

self-determination 

I will now self-determine the Euro into a HECS 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, balltermen said:

self-determination 

I will now self-determine the Euro into a HECS 

Man if the Euro comes in with even 6" - 10" this would be insane. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Man if the Euro comes in with even 6" - 10" this would be insane. 

If the AI goes west again in 40 mins look out.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

There will be watches up for Frederick tomorrow night. 

Frederick has a snow allergy during La Niña. Chasing is tempting, though.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Man if the Euro comes in with even 6" - 10" this would be insane. 

I would be shocked if it came in with less than 6”. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

If the AI goes west again in 40 mins look out.

I'm going to hang around for the Euro AI.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm going to hang around for the Euro AI.

On the ride back from Dulles to home, might as well tune in. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, balltermen said:

if my bf didn't support my favorite thing in the world, he'd need to find a place to sleep for a week. 

He does.  He'd be salty, but he'd let me stay here. problem is his friends love me more than they love him probably.  Going for his friend's bday. I'm a good bit older, but I party harder and outlast all of them mofos. He AND they would be salty about it, but they'd get over it.  I just need more than the GFS to justify it.  If it's just the GFS, I'm at BWI at 10:30.  If the Euro is on board then it's bye bye to him.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

If the AI goes west again in 40 mins look out.

Yep. That AI Euro shift from 12z to 18z was incredibly encouraging, and very uncharacteristic of its small run-to-run shifts. the AI GFS shifting west for 0z gives me some hope that trend will continue. 

[balltermen]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

On the ride back from Dulles to home, might as well tune in. 

might as well stay there. LWX overmeasures. you'll probably get 34"

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

He does.  He'd be salty, but he'd let me stay here. problem is his friends love me more than they love him probably.  I'm a good bit older, but I party harder and outlast all of them mofos. He AND they would be salty about it, but they'd get over it.  I just need more than the GFS to justify it.  If it's just the GFS, I'm at BWI at 10:30.  If the Euro is on board then it's bye bye to him.

Cmon euro do it. Side note, flying BWI to Houston when you live close to DCA and closer to Dulles than BWI? 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

He does.  He'd be salty, but he'd let me stay here. problem is his friends love me more than they love him probably.  I'm a good bit older, but I party harder and outlast all of them mofos. He AND they would be salty about it, but they'd get over it.  I just need more than the GFS to justify it.  If it's just the GFS, I'm at BWI at 10:30.  If the Euro is on board then it's bye bye to him.

This EURO run lays the groundwork 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

He does.  He'd be salty, but he'd let me stay here. problem is his friends love me more than they love him probably.  I'm a good bit older, but I party harder and outlast all of them mofos. He AND they would be salty about it, but they'd get over it.  I just need more than the GFS to justify it.  If it's just the GFS, I'm at BWI at 10:30.  If the Euro is on board then it's bye bye to him.

They say that breaking up is hard to do...

[stormtracker]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Cmon euro do it. Side note, flying BWI to Houston when you live close to DCA and closer to Dulles than BWI? 

All about the $$$ friend.  And I had a flight credit with United.  They only go out of BWI or IAD

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

He does.  He'd be salty, but he'd let me stay here. problem is his friends love me more than they love him probably.  Going for his friend's bday. I'm a good bit older, but I party harder and outlast all of them mofos. He AND they would be salty about it, but they'd get over it.  I just need more than the GFS to justify it.  If it's just the GFS, I'm at BWI at 10:30.  If the Euro is on board then it's bye bye to him.

I ain't reading all that. All I know is you're not missing a big snowstorm cause his friends like you.