“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Pennfisherman said:

This is including todays/tonight's snow right? pretty misleading for northern areas. 

Yes.

[Cyclone-68]

Gotta figure those winds are gonna scream with isobars like that 

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can see on the 06z GFS, it shifted the 25"ish amounts NE into central NJ....def some LBNE trends.

I think there’s a growing possibility that the bull’s-eye that ends up being more into southern New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think there’s a growing possibility that the bull’s-eye that ends up being more into southern New England.

Yea, it will be south of me, but let the south coast get 30" if it means I get 20".

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Can’t forget a lot of people (se areas included) cancelled this at d5 

Yup, but we knew

[weatherwiz]

If that trough axis can shift west just a tad more and dig a bit more this would be something. There is certainly enough time too to get a tick in that direction. That trailing s/w at 78 on GFS/Euro might just be screwing things up just a bit...you can tell this thing really wants to rip up just off the coast

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it will be south of me, but let the south coast get 30" if it means I get 20".

That’s not asking much, is it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

If that trough axis can shift west just a tad more and dig a bit more this would be something. There is certainly enough time too to get a tick in that direction. That trailing s/w at 78 on GFS/Euro might just be screwing things up just a bit...you can tell this thing really wants to rip up just off the coast

I'd love that to phase in.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love that to phase in.

That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell...

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on. 

I still think it helps more than hurts. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell...

I know that the SREF can’t be looked at individually, but it sure can be looked at from the perspective of trends. And doesn’t some of the stuff that feeds those models go into the NAM as well?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell...

The srefs 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell...

NAMAI is over the accordion

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

I still think it helps more than hurts. 

Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The srefs 

Never realized that...

[weatherwiz]

Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? 

I'll be sure to shed a tear

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? 

I'll be sure to shed a tear

They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAMAI is over the accordion

What about the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast ensembles?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do 

I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do 

I don't want them to because it has it's strengths if you know how to use it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations 

And mid level warm intrusions...

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And mid level warm intrusions...

Yup...can't believe I forgot to mention that and this probably supersedes what I mentioned in terms of importance. 

The NAM does have alot of strengths and unfortunately its weaknesses really suck but at least those are very easy to spot and understand.  

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't want them to because it has it's strengths if you know how to use it.

Events like today 

[dendrite]

They can’t get rid of the NAM because everything they come up with to replace it is worse. 

[ScituateMA]

Anyone know what the storm surge potential is looking like on the south shore of MA?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

They can’t get rid of the NAM because everything they come up with to replace it is worse. 

I’m sure they’ll shoe horn in the RRFS without it being ready. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ScituateMA said:

Anyone know what the storm surge potential is looking like on the south shore of MA?

Tides don’t seem very high but they’re not low either. 10’ tide in BOS harbor. 

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure they’ll shoe horn in the RRFS without it being ready. 

I don’t think so. They realized the one they were going to put into production was bad. The MPAS versions are already scoring better verifications….

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure they’ll shoe horn in the RRFS without it being ready. 

How was your step son feeling this morning before you shoed him off to school?