Henry's Weather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Even given a slip east, 495 may receive a deform, but I don’t buy an inside benchmark track yet - need more consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I’m not confident this doesn’t slip east - spider senses are acting up, been here before I'm not too worried about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not too worried about the GFS. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why is the NBM so bonkers when nothing else is that high? GFS and EURO are such lower... Likely the SREFs, but the NBM consists of 80+ different, individual ensemble members. I'm going off memory here, but it includes 10 SREF, 30 GEFS, 50 EPS, 3kmNAM, GFS, RAP, the high-res ARW models, and maybe 1 or two different (experimental) diagnostic models. The models incorporated into the NBM are lagged by a couple cycles too so it's not ingesting the most recent simulations. Honestly, I get why people get so confused with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Dont sweat the qpf trims from east tics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Why not? I'm not seeing any of the mesos do that....and other than 00z, it was basically noise, yet it was still shaving QPF...I don't buy that because I think there will be a deformation zone west of me...makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, Fozz said: I’ve really enjoyed the persistent pack we’ve had for the past month, even going back before the big storm. And it’s still around a foot deep even now after almost a month and a few smaller events. Yeah it’s felt like a classic New England winter…which is really more typical of northern New England hill towns. But it’s nice when they happen down here too which we had been in a recent drought on them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For big dogs SNE-wide, I have learned over the years to want H5 centers to track closer to ACK. I don’t like, and haven’t really liked frankly, these H5 progressions right over BM. Not a met, but my 2 cents 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Looks like most models have converged on 12-16 here. Potential for more sure, but that seems like the right forecast for now. Coastal NJ and SEMA seem like the jackpot spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: For big dogs SNE-wide, I have learned over the years to want H5 centers to track closer to ACK. I don’t like, and haven’t really liked frankly, these H5 progressions right over BM. Not a met, but my 2 cents I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF. Yes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 35 minutes ago, ariof said: Good luck to anyone trying to fly to the East Coast. Everything canceled starting around 18Z tomorrow, Monday, and I'd guess Tuesday AM as well. The closest we can get before Tuesday is Cleveland. At least we can get there in time to get a rental car to get to BOS before the snow begins (it will be tight on the Pike). Have friends who think they are coming into BOS on Monday. Ha! I have friends who were scheduled to fly from Presque Isle, ME to Boston and in the New Orleans Monday. The Boston flight has already been canceled and they’ve been rebooked out of Bangor Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GEM shaved QPF a bit around here, but low is dead-on last run...IDK, I'm just not that spooked and call BS on the rug-pull. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 06z GFS had the death band about where I have it...from KASH to ORH..00Z has it from Taunton to KPYM. NAM has it a shade west of where I do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HREF is nuts .. look at these rates 12z Monday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A friend of mine was asking my thoughts on them flying into BOS on Tuesday. I told them to expect delays if all goes well If they are coming in the morning … they might get canceled. If they are coming in the afternoon … they should be fine. If they think they are going to find an open seat … ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 18z EURO was Jan 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, mreaves said: I have friends who were scheduled to fly from Presque Isle, ME to Boston and in the New Orleans Monday. The Boston flight has already been canceled and they’ve been rebooked out of Bangor Monday afternoon. BGR and BTV might be the only commercial fields in New England to see flights on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 33 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Must have SREF as part of their calculations Also, they have ARW, HRRR, RAP, and other mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Let me say that this Cory fellow has a heck of a track record. When do we set up a gofundme to send him out of town the days before Christmas next year? We'll get the Grinch to jump over the BM with that! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NAM has had that band locked since 12z while the GFS is ticking se and EURO is waffling. I am inclined to go NAM on that...especially since they often end up NW of where we think they will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Didn’t realize the mean on the SREF plumes for KBDR was 20 inches. That wild, I don’t recall it ever being that high for a mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Man, how envious am I of you guys. What a season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF. True - hope this stays put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: True - hope this stays put I know this isn't a SWFE, but the NAM is usually pretty good at resolving mid level thermals within 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: HREF is nuts .. look at these rates 12z Monday RIGHT over my Accordion!! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Is there a possibility of some in SE MA getting 30 out of this? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know this isn't a SWFE, but the NAM is usually pretty good at resolving mid level thermals within 48 hours. I think I am coming to terms with likely being in between the best zones - I’ll take a 16” anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, subdude said: Is there a possibility of some in SE MA getting 30 out of this? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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