“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Henry's Weather]

Even given a slip east, 495 may receive a deform, but I don’t buy an inside benchmark track yet - need more consistency

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I’m not confident this doesn’t slip east - spider senses are acting up, been here before

I'm not too worried about the GFS.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not too worried about the GFS.

Why not?

[MegaMike]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why is the NBM so bonkers when nothing else is that high? GFS and EURO are such lower...

Likely the SREFs, but the NBM consists of 80+ different, individual ensemble members. I'm going off memory here, but it includes 10 SREF, 30 GEFS, 50 EPS, 3kmNAM, GFS, RAP, the high-res ARW models, and maybe 1 or two different (experimental) diagnostic models. The models incorporated into the NBM are lagged by a couple cycles too so it's not ingesting the most recent simulations. Honestly, I get why people get so confused with it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dont sweat the qpf trims from east tics. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Why not?

I'm not seeing any of the mesos do that....and other than 00z, it was basically noise, yet it was still shaving QPF...I don't buy that because I think there will be a deformation zone west of me...makes zero sense.

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’ve really enjoyed the persistent pack we’ve had for the past month, even going back before the big storm.

And it’s still around a foot deep even now after almost a month and a few smaller events.

Yeah it’s felt like a classic New England winter…which is really more typical of northern New England hill towns. But it’s nice when they happen down here too which we had been in a recent drought on them. 

[Henry's Weather]

For big dogs SNE-wide, I have learned over the years to want H5 centers to track closer to ACK. I don’t like, and haven’t really liked frankly, these H5 progressions right over BM. Not a met, but my 2 cents

[OrangeCTWX]

Looks like most models have converged on 12-16 here. Potential for more sure, but that seems like the right forecast for now.  Coastal NJ and SEMA seem like the jackpot spots.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

For big dogs SNE-wide, I have learned over the years to want H5 centers to track closer to ACK. I don’t like, and haven’t really liked frankly, these H5 progressions right over BM. Not a met, but my 2 cents

I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF.

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF.

Yes...

[mreaves]

35 minutes ago, ariof said:

Good luck to anyone trying to fly to the East Coast. Everything canceled starting around 18Z tomorrow, Monday, and I'd guess Tuesday AM as well.

The closest we can get before Tuesday is Cleveland. At least we can get there in time to get a rental car to get to BOS before the snow begins (it will be tight on the Pike).

Have friends who think they are coming into BOS on Monday. Ha!

I have friends who were scheduled to fly from Presque Isle, ME to Boston and in the New Orleans Monday. The Boston flight has already been canceled and they’ve been rebooked out of Bangor Monday afternoon. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM shaved QPF a bit around here, but low is dead-on last run...IDK, I'm just not that spooked and call BS on the rug-pull.

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z GFS had the death band about where I have it...from KASH to ORH..00Z has it from Taunton to KPYM.

NAM has it a shade west of where I do...

[40/70 Benchmark]

[ma blizzard]

HREF is nuts .. look at these rates 12z Monday 

[ariof]

45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A friend of mine was asking my thoughts on them flying into BOS on Tuesday.  I told them to expect delays if all goes well 

If they are coming in the morning … they might get canceled. 

If they are coming in the afternoon … they should be fine.

If they think they are going to find an open seat … ha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18z EURO was Jan 2022.

[ariof]

11 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I have friends who were scheduled to fly from Presque Isle, ME to Boston and in the New Orleans Monday. The Boston flight has already been canceled and they’ve been rebooked out of Bangor Monday afternoon. 

BGR and BTV might be the only commercial fields in New England to see flights on Monday.

[78Blizzard]

33 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Must have SREF as part of their calculations

Also, they have ARW, HRRR, RAP, and other mesos.

[ariof]

Let me say that this Cory fellow has a heck of a track record.

When do we set up a gofundme to send him out of town the days before Christmas next year? We'll get the Grinch to jump over the BM with that!

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM has had that band locked since 12z while the GFS is ticking se and EURO is waffling. I am inclined to go NAM on that...especially since they often end up NW of where we think they will.

[OrangeCTWX]

Didn’t realize the mean on the SREF plumes for KBDR was 20 inches. That wild, I don’t recall it ever being that high for a mean lol

[BRSno]

Man, how envious am I of you guys. What a season so far.

[Henry's Weather]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF.

True - hope this stays put

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

True - hope this stays put

I know this isn't a SWFE, but the NAM is usually pretty good at resolving mid level thermals within 48 hours.

[TheSnowman]

16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

HREF is nuts .. look at these rates 12z Monday 

RIGHT over my Accordion!!  

[subdude]

Is there a possibility of some in SE MA getting 30 out of this?

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know this isn't a SWFE, but the NAM is usually pretty good at resolving mid level thermals within 48 hours.

I think I am coming to terms with likely being in between the best zones - I’ll take a 16” anyday

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, subdude said:

Is there a possibility of some in SE MA getting 30 out of this?

I think so.