40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Pennfisherman said: This is including todays/tonight's snow right? pretty misleading for northern areas. Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Gotta figure those winds are gonna scream with isobars like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can see on the 06z GFS, it shifted the 25"ish amounts NE into central NJ....def some LBNE trends. I think there’s a growing possibility that the bull’s-eye that ends up being more into southern New England. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I think there’s a growing possibility that the bull’s-eye that ends up being more into southern New England. Yea, it will be south of me, but let the south coast get 30" if it means I get 20". 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 25 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: Can’t forget a lot of people (se areas included) cancelled this at d5 Yup, but we knew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 If that trough axis can shift west just a tad more and dig a bit more this would be something. There is certainly enough time too to get a tick in that direction. That trailing s/w at 78 on GFS/Euro might just be screwing things up just a bit...you can tell this thing really wants to rip up just off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it will be south of me, but let the south coast get 30" if it means I get 20". That’s not asking much, is it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, weatherwiz said: If that trough axis can shift west just a tad more and dig a bit more this would be something. There is certainly enough time too to get a tick in that direction. That trailing s/w at 78 on GFS/Euro might just be screwing things up just a bit...you can tell this thing really wants to rip up just off the coast I'd love that to phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd love that to phase in. That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell... 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on. I still think it helps more than hurts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell... I know that the SREF can’t be looked at individually, but it sure can be looked at from the perspective of trends. And doesn’t some of the stuff that feeds those models go into the NAM as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell... The srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM has ensembles? Someone online just mentioned they are amped as hell... NAMAI is over the accordion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, dendrite said: I still think it helps more than hurts. Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The srefs Never realized that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: NAMAI is over the accordion What about the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do I don't want them to because it has it's strengths if you know how to use it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, weatherwiz said: I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations And mid level warm intrusions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: And mid level warm intrusions... Yup...can't believe I forgot to mention that and this probably supersedes what I mentioned in terms of importance. The NAM does have alot of strengths and unfortunately its weaknesses really suck but at least those are very easy to spot and understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't want them to because it has it's strengths if you know how to use it. Events like today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 They can’t get rid of the NAM because everything they come up with to replace it is worse. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Anyone know what the storm surge potential is looking like on the south shore of MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, dendrite said: They can’t get rid of the NAM because everything they come up with to replace it is worse. I’m sure they’ll shoe horn in the RRFS without it being ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, ScituateMA said: Anyone know what the storm surge potential is looking like on the south shore of MA? Tides don’t seem very high but they’re not low either. 10’ tide in BOS harbor. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure they’ll shoe horn in the RRFS without it being ready. I don’t think so. They realized the one they were going to put into production was bad. The MPAS versions are already scoring better verifications…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure they’ll shoe horn in the RRFS without it being ready. How was your step son feeling this morning before you shoed him off to school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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