“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[dryslot]

My definition of a trend is 3 or more consecutive runs showing similar outcomes across guidance.

[kdxken]

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Apparently there is a PARA cmc however do not know where to find it. They posted in the NY forum a few times in the past.

Its on Weatherbell but there is only a 00Z and 12Z run there.  I am not sure if some websites have an 18 and 06

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, apm said:

Never seen such a big shift in EPS this close in:

12Z for 12Z Monday

18Z for 12Z Monday

 

 

 

 

Lopped off a large majority of those eastern members..that's a good sign. Gotta get this to day 3 or 3.5 now, as mentioned

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I do think the GFS sucks with east coast cyclogenesis.....you don't have to agree, but that's my take.

Well, that’s fine Ray. That’s a constructive criticism based upon years of experience or whatever. 
… It’s not filling the thread with garbage, which is frankly not fair and no pun intended, misguided   
I don’t agree or disagree…

You could actually philosophically say that it sucks at East Coast cycle Genesis. It’s so persistent so maybe that’s telling.  Just a thought.

[Pennfisherman]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

As big of a shift as it was, looks like we need another 50-100 mile shift NW for anyone in outside of i95

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Apparently there is a PARA cmc however do not know where to find it. They posted in the NY forum a few times in the past.

Paging @ineedsnow to find it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, apm said:

Never seen such a big shift in EPS this close in:

12Z for 12Z Monday

18Z for 12Z Monday

 

 

 

 

Look at that schlong of lows pointed NW right at Ginxy's kennel

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, that’s fine Ray. That’s a constructive criticism based upon years of experience or whatever. 
… It’s not filling the thread with garbage, which is frankly not fair and no pun intended, misguided   
I don’t agree or disagree…

You could actually philosophically say that it sucks at East Coast cycle Genesis. It’s so persistent so maybe that’s telling.  Just a thought.

No offense taken....no garbage, just your opinion. I get it.

[MuddyWx]

Hope it’s not an 18z burp. But would you look at that, a lot of us still in the game

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

My definition of a trend is 3 or more consecutive runs showing similar outcomes across guidance.

Yes, can't give it back tonight or tomorrow AM.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, can't give it back tonight or tomorrow AM.

No, Not at all now.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suspect it's real. @dryslotmade a great point about the data ingest. Hey, I will fully admit if I missed the boat here and try to learn from it.

Not to steal his thunder but I made the money post about this this morning  

I did a very discrete comparison of the Euro and the GFS recent runs and isolated the difference between the two. The euro is now finding the short wave that the GFS has been tracking all along and suddenly this happens. As far as I’m concerned that’s the money post.

I don’t care who makes the post. I’m just sayn’ for the sake of content

question is do they both now en masse collapse out to sea ha ha ha ha wouldn’t that be funny just for shits and giggles

I also described the phenomenon in modeling known as “data shadowing” , yesterday.  I’m wondering if the euro fell victim to that. Though I would’ve assumed that would be a thing of the past it could be a good description for what went on this week with that model. interesting.

[Prismshine Productions]

God I hate the fact the fucking Nammer is the first model at the plate at this range to compare H5 progression...

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[VivaManchVegas]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

My definition of a trend is 3 or more consecutive runs showing similar outcomes across guidance.

What am I missing here with the latest Euro?  Still at best a SENE storm? 6 inches for boston, 8 to 12 for the cape?  Everyone riding the trend?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not the steal his thunder but I made the money post this morning

I did a very discreet comparison of the euro and the GFS Ron’s and isolated the difference between the two. The euro is now finding the short wave that the GFS has been tracking all along and suddenly this happens. As far as I’m concerned that’s the money post.

I don’t care who makes the post. I’m just sayn’ for the sake of content

question is do they both know on mass collapse out the sea ha ha ha ha wouldn’t that be funny just for shits and giggles

Yes, you were level-headed. I recall.....if this trend continues through 12z tomorrow, I'll capitulate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, VivaManchVegas said:

What am I missing here with the latest Euro?  Still at best a SENE storm? 6 inches for boston, 8 to 12 for the cape?

Well,

1) I think you would see banding west of that QPF depiction

2) We still have 4 days to go....another 50 miles a big ask? There is a westward lean there...but we do need to make sure this isn't an 18z artifact.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Apparently there is a PARA cmc however do not know where to find it. They posted in the NY forum a few times in the past.

It’s a whiff too.. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, VivaManchVegas said:

What am I missing here with the latest Euro?  Still at best a SENE storm? 6 inches for boston, 8 to 12 for the cape?  Everyone riding the trend?

Euro got onboard, Don't think anyone wants to be in the bullseye at day 4, But continued tics in a favorable direction is what we would want to see.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s a whiff too.. 

Rule of thumb. if not posted, it's a whiff

[VivaManchVegas]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well,

1) I think you would see banding west of that QPF depiction

2) We still have 4 days to go....another 50 miles a big ask?

That is fair. I posted earlier about Gray mentioning that the main event just now getting sampled over the main land so I am not surprised.  Full disclosure, I would love zero snow from the Monday storm.  I can take the 6 inches from Fri nights storm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, apm said:

Never seen such a big shift in EPS this close in:

12Z for 12Z Monday

18Z for 12Z Monday

 

 

 

 

that’s why it all strikes me as data loss…

This is just to incongruently bad for that particular cluster. You don’t move that much this close in without there being a very significant systemic change and the best thing to account for that is missing data.  

If data shadowing somehow caught up with this particular model system, then I give it a pass because you’re only as good as the shit you’re eating

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty amazing how some folks are so snakebitten. If this was a few years ago and this happened , there would not be a soul who wouldn't be amped up and on board. With both major model suites on board and in lock step . Now there’s a ton of consternation and not buying and wringing of hands . It’s a study Typhoon Freutip would love to dive into 

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

that’s why it all strikes me as data loss…

This is just to incongruently bad for that particular cluster. You don’t move that much this close in without their being a very significant systemic change and the best thing to account for that is missing data.  

If data shadowing somehow caught up with this particular model system, then I give it a pass because you’re only as good as the shit you’re eating

Yes, Pretty big gap in data to get a bump like this, Correct.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, you were level-headed. I recall.....if this trend continues through 12z tomorrow, I'll capitulate. 

It’s a good approach… At this moment, I’m not really excited or disappointed. I’m really the same way I was this morning. Because it helps when you identify what’s going on I mean that protects you from that other shit I’m not sure what else to tellto tell people, but whatever.

[VivaManchVegas]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro got onboard, Don't think anyone wants to be in the bullseye at day 4, But continued tics in a favorable direction is what we would want to see.

Understood. I have been watching storm for so long... you loose sight it is still 4 days away. 

[dryslot]

Just now, VivaManchVegas said:

Understood. I have been watching storm for so long... you loose sight it is still 4 days away. 

The other thing that's probably being over looked is tomorrow nights sytsem has ticked a bit north the past few runs that lifts out sooner to give monday some room, Subtle but a factor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty amazing how some folks are so snakebitten. If this was a few years ago and this happened , there would not be a soul who wouldn't be amped up and on board. With both major model suites on board and in lock step . Now there’s a ton of consternation and not buying and wringing of hands . It’s a study Typhoon Freutip would love to dive into 

Well, there has been a pattern have off-hour runs being more amped...I don't think this is that, but can't rule it out yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The other thing that's probably being over looked is tomorrow nights sytsem has ticked a bit north the past few runs that lifts out sooner to give monday some room, Subtle but a factor.

Yup, it was mainly snow throughout SNE a couple of days ago, now even I'm getting a good bit of sleet.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there has been a pattern have off-hour runs being more amped...I don't think this is that, but can't rule it out yet. 

But that’s my point . Before these past few winters . Most everyone would buy into this being real. You can tell other than a handful, most do not and are expecting 00z to go back to a light snowfall