Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 EURO not having anything to do with this from jump street is a massive red flag. Just another model, but it has to come on board to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a waste. Oh well. But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 What about the 3-6/4-8 Saturday? Stealing Sunday/Monday’s thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: EURO not having anything to do with this from jump street is a massive red flag. Just another model, but it has to come on board to some degree 06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More like house on fire after 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 EPS pretty meh but a few hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Generally, the ECMWF outperforms the GFS, CMC, JMA, and UKMET for every variable (gph, wind, temperature, etc...), isobaric surface, and for all spatial (CONUS, N-Hem, etc...) and temporal (fcst hr 0-240) stratification over the past 31 days. I would say, the UKMET is a close 2nd place though (at least, for gph). It even slightly outperforms the ECMWF from ~122-140hr. For visualization (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/): Regardless, I'm still placing more weight on ensembles. If the EPS improves/holds steady, I'll still follow the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a waste. Oh well. And what about the ECMWF AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah usually euro showing this would be a death knell to the threat, but I don't trust the Euro at all.... If it ends up being a 1-2ft sne blizzard then the euro seriously should be shipped back to the factory for patchwork. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape. True, But for it to regress back at 12z leaves little confidence it wasn’t a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: EPS pretty meh but a few hits it was worse than 0z. pretty bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, MegaMike said: Generally, the ECMWF outperforms the GFS, CMC, JMA, and UKMET for every variable (gph, wind, temperature, etc...), isobaric surface, and for all spatial (CONUS, N-Hem, etc...) and temporal (fcst hr 0-240) stratification over the past 31 days. I would say, the UKMET is a close 2nd place though (at least, for gph). It even slightly outperforms the ECMWF from ~122-140hr. For visualization (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/): Regardless, I'm still placing more weight on ensembles. If the EPS improves/holds steady, I'll still follow the event. It's amazing how it pulls these scores given how bad it's been around this area, wrt storm placement in mid range since mid Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: it was worse than 0z. pretty bad Not good, we await our next lap dance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in, not what it used to be. Do I think this hits? No idea. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitive statements. I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 1. Glancing blow 2. Big hit 3. complete whiff 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: It's amazing how it pulls these scores given how bad it's been around this area, wrt storm placement in mid range since mid Jan It's hard to dispute the verification webpage. I guess it's possible results are skewed in favor of fair weather, but I agree with what Tip wrote a few days ago: I think most members focus on single events and get too emotionally biased. Anywho, as INS mentioned, the 12z EPS is a step back when looking at the mean... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in. Do I think this hits ? No idea, am I hopeful yes. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitives. I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 1. Glancing blow 2. Big hit 3. complete whiff It means something, it still out scores every other model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, MegaMike said: It's hard to dispute the verification webpage. I guess it's possible results are skewed in favor of fair weather, but I agree with what Tip wrote a few days ago: I think most members focus on single events and get too emotionally biased. Anywho, as INS mentioned, the 12z EPS is a step back when looking at the mean... Large step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro is a trash model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a trash model Not according to the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in, not what it used to be. Do I think this hits? No idea. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitive statements. I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 1. Glancing blow 2. Big hit 3. complete whiff This is not factual it’s just vibe based 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in, not what it used to be. Do I think this hits? No idea. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitive statements. I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 1. Glancing blow 2. Big hit 3. complete whiff #2 is off the table imo but it’s definitely not a 33% probability. Maybe 5% if we’re feeling lucky. #1 and #3 is pretty much a coin flip. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 29 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Not what CoastalWx likes to see!! What trends should we look for that may make CoastalWx feel a bit better about snow prospects at CoastalWx's house!? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m sure we will get one every weekend in May. I kind of don't mind them in May. Anything to delay the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Not according to the data Then feel free to ride it. I'm not saying the data is is inaccurate overall, but it HAS sucked on several singular storms over the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The OP euro is one thing, but the eps not even having slight interest should concern everyone 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The OP euro is one thing, but the eps not even having slight interest should concern everyone Gefs also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 It's still ~5 days out. Still plenty of time for trends, as Mr. Sey-Mour alluded to. Would ease my if the EPS improves. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I’m not saying the storm is going to hit at all. But a big hit is still on the table. Are you guys delusional or lack the memory of the euro having how many fantasy blizzards in the 4 to 8 day range this season to not even come close to verifying when other models had no interest. The EPS is a joke as well come on guys. How many head fakes did we have with the EPS this season showing big hits to not even see a damn flake 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Based on the off hour run waffling, 18z probably comes back to a degree I’m guessing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 35 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: It means something, it still out scores every other model It’s been bad for a while, when it’s on its own it’s usually wrong. Again I’m just saying have an open mind not saying this is guaranteed coming back to be a big hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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