“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Kitz Craver]

EURO not having anything to do with this from jump street is a massive red flag. Just another model, but it has to come on board to some degree

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a waste. Oh well.

But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL.

[weathafella]

What about the 3-6/4-8 Saturday?  Stealing Sunday/Monday’s thunder 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

EURO not having anything to do with this from jump street is a massive red flag. Just another model, but it has to come on board to some degree

06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape. 

[vortex95]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More like house on fire after 12z Euro.

 

[ineedsnow]

EPS pretty meh but a few hits

[MegaMike]

Generally, the ECMWF outperforms the GFS, CMC, JMA, and UKMET for every variable (gph, wind, temperature, etc...), isobaric surface, and for all spatial (CONUS, N-Hem, etc...) and temporal (fcst hr 0-240) stratification over the past 31 days. 

I would say, the UKMET is a close 2nd place though (at least, for gph). It even slightly outperforms the ECMWF from ~122-140hr.

For visualization (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/): 

Regardless, I'm still placing more weight on ensembles. If the EPS improves/holds steady, I'll still follow the event. 

[vortex95]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a waste. Oh well.

And what about the ECMWF AI?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah usually euro showing this would be a death knell to the threat, but I don't trust the Euro at all....

If it ends up being a 1-2ft sne blizzard then the euro seriously should be shipped back to the factory for patchwork.

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape. 

True, But for it to regress back at 12z leaves little confidence it wasn’t a blip

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS pretty meh but a few hits

it was worse than 0z. pretty bad

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Generally, the ECMWF outperforms the GFS, CMC, JMA, and UKMET for every variable (gph, wind, temperature, etc...), isobaric surface, and for all spatial (CONUS, N-Hem, etc...) and temporal (fcst hr 0-240) stratification over the past 31 days. 

I would say, the UKMET is a close 2nd place though (at least, for gph). It even slightly outperforms the ECMWF from ~122-140hr.

For visualization (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/): 

Regardless, I'm still placing more weight on ensembles. If the EPS improves/holds steady, I'll still follow the event. 

It's amazing how it pulls these scores given how bad it's been around this area, wrt storm placement in mid range since mid Jan

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

it was worse than 0z. pretty bad

Not good, we await our next lap dance

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in, not what it used to be. Do I think this hits? No idea. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitive statements.   I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 

1. Glancing blow 

2. Big hit 

3. complete whiff 

[MegaMike]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

It's amazing how it pulls these scores given how bad it's been around this area, wrt storm placement in mid range since mid Jan

It's hard to dispute the verification webpage.

I guess it's possible results are skewed in favor of fair weather, but I agree with what Tip wrote a few days ago: I think most members focus on single events and get too emotionally biased. 

Anywho, as INS mentioned, the 12z EPS is a step back when looking at the mean...

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in.  Do I think this hits ? No idea, am I hopeful yes. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitives.  I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 

1. Glancing blow 

2. Big hit 

3. complete whiff 

It means something, it still out scores every other model

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, MegaMike said:

It's hard to dispute the verification webpage.

I guess it's possible results are skewed in favor of fair weather, but I agree with what Tip wrote a few days ago: I think most members focus on single events and get too emotionally biased. 

Anywho, as INS mentioned, the 12z EPS is a step back when looking at the mean...

Large step back

[MJO812]

Euro is a trash model

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a trash model

Not according to the data

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in, not what it used to be. Do I think this hits? No idea. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitive statements.   I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 

1. Glancing blow 

2. Big hit 

3. complete whiff 

This is not factual it’s just vibe based

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro means absolutely nothing as others have said it’s been the outlier on massive hits this close in, not what it used to be. Do I think this hits? No idea. But day 5 is an eternity for all these definitive statements.   I believe we have a 1 in 3 shot at either 

1. Glancing blow 

2. Big hit 

3. complete whiff 

#2 is off the table imo but it’s definitely not a 33% probability. Maybe 5% if we’re feeling lucky. 
 

#1 and #3 is pretty much a coin flip. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

 

Not what CoastalWx likes to see!! What trends should we look for that may make CoastalWx feel a bit better about snow prospects at CoastalWx's house!?

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m sure we will get one every weekend in May.

I kind of don't mind them in May. Anything to delay the heat.

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Not according to the data

Then feel free to ride it. I'm not saying the data is is inaccurate overall, but it HAS sucked on several singular storms over the past month. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The OP euro is one thing, but the eps not even having slight interest should concern everyone

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The OP euro is one thing, but the eps not even having slight interest should concern everyone

Gefs also

[MegaMike]

It's still ~5 days out. Still plenty of time for trends, as Mr. Sey-Mour alluded to.

Would ease my  if the EPS improves.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I’m not saying the storm is going to hit at all. But a big hit is still on the table. Are you guys delusional or lack the memory of the  euro having how many fantasy blizzards in the 4 to 8 day range this season to not even come close to verifying when other models had no interest. The EPS is a joke as well come on guys. How many head fakes did we have with the EPS this season showing big hits to not even see a damn flake 

[Kitz Craver]

Based on the off hour run waffling, 18z probably comes back to a degree I’m guessing 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

35 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It means something, it still out scores every other model

It’s been bad for a while, when it’s on its own it’s usually wrong. Again I’m just saying have an open mind not saying this is guaranteed coming back to be a big hit.