2026 Severe Wx - General Thread

[SolidIcewx]

Enhanced risk now for southern MI. Storms on the west side looking nasty.

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A swath of damaging to severe gusts is expected across southern
   Lower Michigan over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts are
   also likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, scattered
   wind damage and large hail are still expected from parts of Nebraska
   into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible
   extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest
   and Tennessee Valley.

   ...20Z Update...
   The main change made to this outlook was to upgrade southern Lower
   MI to a Category 3/Enhanced Risk, driven by 30 percent/CIG1 wind
   probabilities. A cold-pool-driven MCS, with some bowing tendencies
   and a history of producing numerous measured gusts in the 60-70 mph,
   is rapidly approaching southern Lower MI. KGRR inbound velocity data
   shows a rear-inflow jet exists with this MCS, and surface
   observations/latest mesoanalysis show a favorable environment in
   place for bow-echo persistence. Surface temperatures are exceeding
   90 F in spots, amid 70-75 F surface dewpoints, yielding a gradient
   of 1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 30 kts of effective bulk shear
   coincides with this buoyancy gradient, with vectors oriented normal
   to the MCS leading-line orientation. Therefore, the expectation is
   for a damaging wind swath to occur over southern Lower MI with the
   passage of this MCS. At least scattered gusts will likely exceed 50
   kts in intensity, and a few of these gusts may exceed 75 mph.

   30 percent wind-driven probabilities were also added over portions
   of eastern PA into far southeastern NY and NJ, where surface
   temperatures are exceeding 100 F in spots ahead of a developing
   multicellular cluster. While vertical wind shear is modest, the
   well-mixed boundary layer is yielding low-level lapse rates well
   over 8 C/km on a widespread basis, with corresponding DCAPE
   approaching 1500 J/kg. As such, several of the stronger storm cores
   may produce wet downbursts capable of at least tree/wire damage on a
   scattered basis, and a few severe gusts are also possible.

[sbnwx85]

Under a warning here but the main line should stay north. Although there’s a nice pop up cell providing some garden variety

[Chinook]

new enhanced risk in southern Michigan, and these storm reports from around Chicago

 

[SolidIcewx]

79 mph reported in Kalamazoo. 
 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
419 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR CALHOUN AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES...

At 416 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Galesburg, or 7 miles east of Kalamazoo, moving east at 25 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Eastside Kalamazoo, Galesburg, Climax. Will be in the vicinity of Battle Creek by 5 PM.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 405 PM EDT, 79 MPH was reported at Kalamazoo Airport.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

[MazooWeather]

Storm that popped up overhead went from nothing to producing 80 mph wind gusts immediately 

[sbnwx85]

Garden variety cell grew into a decent storm. 50 mph gust in there at one point. Outflow breeze feels great rn. More storms backbuilding. Gonna be a good day.

[Chicago Storm]

Got rolled at home before heading off to work.

Peak wind gusts ~60MPH with scattered branches down around town.

As for ORD, one of the runway sensors gusted to 63MPH, but ASOS had a peak wind gust of 54MPH.

[Powerball]

There's also a SPC Enhanced Risk area now for Southern MI, all the way from Lake Michigan to Detroit, for daamging winds.

Funny enough, there are areas in the Enhanced Risk now that weren't even in the Slight Risk earlier.

SPC mesoanalysis does indicate the atmosphere's finally recovering across Metro Detroit from this morning's outflow bubble as well...

 

[Powerball]

https://x.com/i/status/2073156007291699252

[Chicago Storm]

Lake Geneva, WI was hit hard. Widespread and significant damage across that area, including several boats that were capsized on the lake.

Seven people were rescued from the lake and three children lost their lives.

[cyclone77]

A couple of tornado warnings up in far northwest IL where there is 0% tor probs from SPC.  #Illinois 2026.

[metallica470]

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

A couple of tornado warnings up in far northwest IL where there is 0% tor probs from SPC.  #Illinois 2026.

Not even under a severe storm watch in the region.

The cell near Stockton appeared to have some strong rotation on it too