Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If I knew the answer to that. No the models know better than we humans do. But I will say that historically it's gone both ways. And it's also possible they'll bring back and less magnificent storm of 1-3,2-4, 3-6" or so or that we'll remain in the outer snowbands with a lighter/wetter snowfall. We need the ridge out west to stay stronger and leave enough room for this system to get wrapped up the way some of the models earlier depicted it. On most of the 00Z runs the top of the ridge was flattened making for a more progressive flatter trough in the east. As long as the AI models have this thing IMO it's a legitimate threat.

WX/PT

IMO - I don't think the energy (storm) that is going to track across the country in the next few days has been fully sampled yet and fed into the models along with the northern energy. The west coast storm is progged to reach the west coast by 12Z Thursday. IMO expect further changes in model solutions over the next few days

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO - I don't think the energy (storm) that is going to track across the country in the next few days has been fully sampled yet and fed into the models along with the northern energy. The west coast storm is progged to reach the west coast by 12Z Thursday. IMO expect further changes in model solutions over the next few days

Horrible 0z suite. Onto 6z.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible 0z suite. Onto 6z.

why would 6Z be any different with old incomplete data ? Plus read my post about the storm not entering the west coast till 12Z Thursday - now the storm is probably in a sparse data region in the Pacific and not fully evaluated yet

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

why would 6Z be any different with old incomplete data ? Plus read my post about the storm not entering the west coast till 12Z Thursday - now the storm is probably in a sparse data region and not fully evaluated yet

I know. Its just a bad night for the models.

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know. Its just a bad night for the models.

yes look at the 0Z Euro starting at 12Z Thursday tracking that western storm which disappears in transit

[NEG NAO]

Can't make this stuff up - No Snow For You !

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Can't make this stuff up - No Snow For You !

The whole NY gets snoe except us. We truly live in the worst spot in NY for winter weather. 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Can't make this stuff up - No Snow For You !

Annnd this is why I had someone else into starting the thread. My record is still intact.

[MJO812]

Nam and Rgem are slightly more amped than 0z

[nycsnow]

Bye bye

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Bye bye

Its west of 0z.

The wave to our north ruins the big coastal . It lingers which dappens the heights. This had huge potential . Hopefully things change.

[RU848789]

In case anyone is interested in my summary posted elsewhere, here you go. Well, Dr. No, the King, looks like he might be back, as most of the global models tonight at 0Z caved to the Euro depiction over the last several runs of a much more progressive, flatter storm much further to our SE. So, the chances of a major snowstorm have gone down substantially, but not to zero, and the chances of even a minor to moderate storm have gone down significantly. The AI models, which have done quite well in the 4-6 day range this winter, still show a moderate to significant storm (with only one model the AIGFS still showing a major snowstorm)., while all of the physics-based models show either no snow or only a few inches. The cries you heard last night were from all the snow lovers around the world, lol. Below is a summary of the 12Z to 0Z changes...

• The ICON went from a 12-18" monster for all to nada for everyone (1-2" for AC to Cape May). That's nuts.
• The GFS went from 6-12+" for everyone at 12Z to 2-5" for most at 0Z
• CMC went from an 18-24" monster for everyone at 12Z to <1" for everyone at 0Z. Also nuts.
• The UK went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to ~1" along 95 and a few inches for the coast at 0Z. More nuts.
• The Euro had little to no snow for everyone at both 12Z and 0Z. Dr. No.
• The AIGFS went from 12-18" for everyone at 12Z to 6-12" for everyone (the high end at the coast) at 0Z.
• The Euro-AIFS went from 6-12" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z.
• The Weathernext 2 went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its west of 0z.

The wave to our north ruins the big coastal . It lingers which dappens the heights. This had huge potential . Hopefully things change.

There's always next winter. I just hope the PDO turns positive, more so than an el nino.

[RU848789]

So much for the myth that the AI models don't make big moves inside 5 days, lol. The cave to the Euro is nearly complete now.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Well there’s always the Hail Mary that the models lose it then get it back 

but the euro never being invested was a red flag. It’s maybe not coming 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Its west of 0z.

The wave to our north ruins the big coastal . It lingers which dappens the heights. This had huge potential . Hopefully things change.

It’s always something. Some turd always in the punch bowl. 

[RU848789]

Not the bomb from 24 hrs ago, but nice improvement on the AIFS from 0Z. Maybe we can still get a moderate snowfall from this...

[RU848789]

Not so fast my friend as Lee Corso used to say, as the Euro jumps back NW quite a ways....

 

 

 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not so fast my friend as Lee Corso used to say, as the Euro jumps back NW quite a ways....

 

 

 

We’ll see but had to reply, nice Coach reference. Legend.  

[Yanksfan]

Down this morning after viewing the 00z runs but not out. We’ve been through this roller coaster ride so many times before. Let the NW ticks commence!

[EasternLI]

Yeah who knows. Thought it was kinda funny to see the euro at 6z look better at 500 than any of it's other previous runs for this thing. Delicate setup 

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro ai looks pretty decent honestly i'd take it

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not the bomb from 24 hrs ago, but nice improvement on the AIFS from 0Z. Maybe we can still get a moderate snowfall from this...

Down at the southern end of the forum where you are, odds are in your favor for this one. For those of us north of the forums mason dixon line a tougher road to make this work.

[RU848789]

Nice bump in the EPS mean, also...

[WarmNoseHater]

Southerner here who will be in Manhattan this weekend for a couple of shows and I’m pulling for you!

Good to see that the NW ticks are standard across our geos

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro i'm assuming is a miss?

[Nibor]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro i'm assuming is a miss?

It came west by a good amount. Scraper. 

[RU848789]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro i'm assuming is a miss?

No, see my post above - 200 mile NW shift with minor snow for 95 and moderate snow for the coast.  

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, Neblizzard said:

Lesson learned never to get excited for a storm 5 days out with a hostile pattern 

I never do. I am more disappointed in the model performance. I have never seen something like this before.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I never do. I am more disappointed in the model performance. I have never seen something like this before.

It’s a fragile setup in a fast moving pattern. Lots of things can shift around and ruin the storm setup. It’s still 4 days out but this wouldn’t be the first whiff or OTS this or last winter.