The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[JonClaw]

9 minutes ago, NsWx516 said:

Not sure if its been posted but New York has declared a State of Emergency

Travel ban shouldn't be far behind now.

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

2/21 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 
/
Snow 10:1 NYC


SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM:  2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K:  2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1

Updated GFS

[Wxbear25]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

GFS not backing down. Pretty much the same as 12z

Definiitely a noticeable tick SE, but not nearly enough to be problematic

Realistically, the tracks arent THAT far off between the models, the GFS is just much more efficient at hurling that convection into the NW quadrant of the low 

[SACRUS]

2/21 GFS AI AIGFS

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

Snow 10:1

 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Definiitely a noticeable tick SE, but not nearly enough to be problematic

Realistically, the tracks arent THAT far off between the models, the GFS is just much more efficient at hurling that convection into the NW quadrant of the low 

Definitely agree with that.

[Tatamy]

37 minutes ago, North and West said:

Question I’ll pose, albeit may be too early: does this have some hallmarks of the granddaddies of the past, some that some of us have been alive for, some that we’ve only heard about?

My initial thoughts:

March 1888
February 1978
January 1996

Of course there are others, but those three are some inner-circle, first ballot HoFers.

Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen.


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Feb 1983 - Measured many hours of snow accompanied by wind gusts to 50   - 65 mph.  Location- East Northport.  Equipment- Downeaster

Models are forecasting similar winds on LI.  I have a Davis Vantage Vue on Fire Island and will be watching the reports there with great interest.

[steve392]

Anyone have Upton maps? 

[KeithB]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. 

Nam might be closer than we think

Yes....let's bring the 00z globals in strong, and then focus on mesos

[Prue11]

15 minutes ago, liwxfan said:

Feb 2013 (nemo) for suffolk county. Had 30 inches and constant thundersnow. I compare all storms to that one out here. More intense then 96 for me.

Same was twice as bad as 96. Grinds car was abandoned on LIE cooling home from work. Nicolls road was closed for a day

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have Upton maps? 

[EasternLI]

2.5" QPF on the GFS is acceptable lol

[SACRUS]

2/21 18z UKMET

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

Snow 1:1

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

2.5" QPF on the GFS is acceptable lol

I think what's at issue here is 

A: How much precip falls
B: How much of that preceip is frozen

I've seen anywhere from 1 inch to 3.5 inches of precip over NYC.

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

2/21 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 
/
Snow 10:1 NYC


SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM:  2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K:  2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.3 / 12.7
UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2

Updated UKMET

[Dark Star]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. 

Nam might be closer than we think

Is the ridge in the west where we would want it?

[David-LI]

when do they send that alert that makes all the phones start blasting with a loud sound? Havent got one yet. Not officially a blizzard until I get that alert.

[Mail Man]

Couldn't get much work done today due to the storm lol

[TriPol]

Just now, David-LI said:

when do they send that alert that makes all the phones start blasting with a loud sound? Havent got one yet. Not officially a blizzard until I get that alert.

The Blizzard Warning goes into effect at 1 pm tomorrow.

[TriPol]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. 

Nam might be closer than we think

Why do you think the EURO is so far off-base?

[Winterweatherlover]

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Not going to get dry snow with temps in mid 30s

More like 30-32 at the height of storm but still yes more wet than dry if think although upper levels very cold. 

[winterwarlock]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2/21 GFS AI AIGFS

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

Snow 10:1

 

Do you have the snow map for this

[Winterweatherlover]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lee Goldberg 

Honestly this is the best forecast. 

[steve392]

Instructor at work canceled classes for Monday.  Snow day for me! 

[Prue11]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I think what's at issue here is 

A: How much precip falls
B: How much of that preceip is frozen

I've seen anywhere from 1 inch to 3.5 inches of precip over NYC.

May lose an inch or two during daytime. After dark it’s game on

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

May lose an inch or two during daytime. After dark it’s game on

he talking about total precip not a inch or 2 of snow..

[Blizzardo]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Honestly this is the best forecast. 

really cant go wrong with that...lol

[Jt17]

Updated UKMET

I'd like to point out there's about .8 qpf diff between nyc and 15 miles south and it doesn't like a southern adjustment, just some randomness from this run.


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[TriPol]

Pix 11 forecast

[Jt17]

Do you have the snow map for this

X10.


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[Jt17]

2/21 18z UKMET

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24


 
Snow 1:1

This is a tremendous cave to the GFS. To those saying they needed non-US models on board. Here you go... and it's possibly underdone based on Ukies bias.


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