Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wheres Lonnie Quinn these days? hes gotta be all jacked up with his sleeves rolled up somewhere! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 How accurate is the HDRPS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Jt17 said: This is a tremendous cave to the GFS. To those saying they needed non-US models on board. Here you go... and it's possibly underdone based on Ukies bias. . Wow. Love to see UKMET on board. Going out for the night and hoping I don’t come back to any major swings lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 my point and click!!!! holy.... Sunday Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 3pm. High near 37. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Monday Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow between 9am and noon. High near 35. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Start time down in Ocean City NJ? 10am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Wheres Lonnie Quinn these days? hes gotta be all jacked up with his sleeves rolled up somewhere! we have a professional weather met craig allen doing the weekend weather on wcbs 2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Mail Man said: How accurate is the HDRPS?? Wouldn't give it weight for another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 HECS 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GEFS slightly snowier at 18z over 12z lol . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Does the NWS afd now not do coastal flooding details? They used to do tides section near hydrology stufg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 mirrors 1978 blizzard 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: mirrors 1978 blizzard High is almost identical at 1046-48, Low should be stronger at 984 vs 968-70 for this one! 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just want to say…it’s been a pleasure tracking this one with all of you. Tracking (and NAM’ing) is one of my favorite parts of the storm experience. When we’re all shoveling and annoyingly digging out, I’ll remember the fun of the tracking! 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, deathstar9 said: High is almost identical at 1046-48, Low should be stronger at 984 vs 968-70 for this one! 20mb lower then the 78 blizzard. 984 vs 964..interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 A long and detailed AFD: 193 FXUS61 KOKX 212051 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 351 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blizzard warnings are now in effect for the entire area except Orange and Putnam counties where a winter storm warning remains in effect. The warnings start at 1pm Sunday Snowfall amounts have been increased slightly && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Blizzard conditions are expected across much of the area with near-blizzard conditions across Orange and Putnam counties Sunday night into the first half of Monday. 2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday. 3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Major winter storm impacts the Tri-State Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has continued to converge on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast Sunday morning and rapidly intensify Sunday evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W bookmark. There have been some minor fluctuation within the guidance on the exact location of the low and whether it passes just inside, over, or just east of the benchmark. However, little change to the overall impacts would occur in these scenarios. Ensemble solutions that were passing much further offshore with a graze scenario are continuing to look less and less likely. Model guidance shows pressures rapidly falling Sunday night with the low deepening around 970 mb as it nears the benchmark. Some guidance even has it a few mb lower. The low occludes and gets captured by the upper low with deepening ending and the low beginning to level off as it lifts NE to off the Cape Monday night. Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, may develop Sunday morning, but steadier snow should begin overspreading the area from south to north in the afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures initially will be above freezing so little to no impact from any snow expected through early afternoon. Once the precip intensity increases mid to late Sunday afternoon, accumulations should begin more efficiently on colder surfaces, and then roadways Sunday evening as temperatures drop below freezing. Since there will be little to no impact in the morning, the start time of the Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings have been moved to 1pm Sunday. This may still be a bit early, but overall conditions will deteriorate as the evening approaches. The explosive development of the low pressure will aid in the expansion of snow well north and west of the low center. Bands of moderate to heavy snow will rotate from the southeast to the northwest during the evening into the overnight as the cyclone rapidly deepens. These bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning withing the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday afternoon. The system is now getting within the range of the high res guidance and we are beginning to see notable trends of an uptick in QPF. These changes may move around a bit in the next 24 hours, but overall the trend supports increasing snowfall totals from the previous forecast. Total snowfall ranges from 12-16 inches inland and S CT to around 15-20 inches closer to the coast. There is a reasonable worse case for around 2 ft+ of snow. The chance for these amounts may be closer to the coast/Long Island, but cannot entirely rule this out even inland if heavier bands shift further NW away from the low center. There are still several ECMWF-EPS ensemble members that are very likely skewing the overall distribution of the probabilistic snow. These members have started trending up with the latest 12z EPS, lending more confidence that the low end amounts are unlikely to be correct. Intense dynamics are expected with this storm including strong difluence and intense frontogenesis all lead to heavy banding potential and heavy snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday morning. The cold conveyor belt late Sunday night and Monday morning appears to sit right on top of the area which will help the bands remain in place for a while and generally snow themselves out as the storm starts departing. Snowfall rates increase Sunday evening, becoming 1-2" per hour with locally up to 3 inches per hour at times. Several major winter storms in recent history have produced large heavy snow bands in the deformation zone with rates locally as high as 4" per hour. This cannot be ruled out given the type of storm being depicted by the models. There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier banding Sunday night into Monday morning. Have not included thunder in the forecast yet, but cannot ruled this potential out. Winds will also be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but could still see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. The blizzard warnings were expanded to higher confidence in considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility well away from the coast. Near-blizzard conditions are possible outside the blizzard warning. The snowfall character will start wet and then gradually become drier as the event matures Sunday night into Monday. Ratios likely average around 10:1 early on, possibly lower Sunday afternoon, before averaging around 11-13:1 overnight Sunday into Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 3... There may be a few frontal systems that move across in a mostly zonal flow mid to late next week. Precip chances have come up a bit late in the week with mostly rain expected at this point. Temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub- freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... **HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY** Weak high pressure noses in from the north tonight. A strong nor`easter then impacts the area Sunday into Monday. Ceilings lower to MVFR tonight into early Sunday. Cigs then lower to IFR through the day on Sunday. potential for light rain/snow showers to move in from the north tonight, but confidence remains low at this point and will likely not be impactful. Have added PROB30 to KGON for now. Any snow or rain/snow Sunday morning will be light. Snowfall rates don`t pick up until Sunday afternoon. Started LIFR conditions at 21z for NYC terminals. Winds veer NE tonight at 5-10 kt ahead of a nor`easter. Winds increase to 15 kt by 18Z, then around 20 kt by 21z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected today. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Night: IFR/LIFR with vsby 1/4 at times in +SN. NE Sunday night with G35-40 kt with up to 45 kt at KISP and KGON. Isolated 50-55kt kt gusts possible mainly at KISP and KGON. Likely LLWS with 50-55kt at 2kft. Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G30-40 kt. Total Forecast Snow Amounts KSWF: 12 inches KHPN and KBDR: 16 inches KGON: 18 inches NYC terminals: 17-19 inches KISP: 20 inches KISP: 20 inches Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR or lower in snow or rain/snow mix possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Storm watches have been upgraded to storm warnings and now include the Great South Bay. The Gale watch has been upgraded to a gale warning. A major coastal storm will take shape along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday, rapidly deepening some 25 to 30 mb by early Monday morning. The low drop to around 970mb as it reaches the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. Gales and storm force gusts are increasing likely with seas building as high as 20 feet on the ocean and 5 to 10 ft on LI Sound (highest eastern sound). Conditions ramp down to SCA on all waters for Mon night. SCA potential remains Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean, but should remain below on the non-waters will have SCA potential for wind gusts Tuesday and mainly below SCA wind gusts Tuesday night through Thursday. && .CLIMATE... With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites: Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23 Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Warning from midnight Sunday night to 5 AM EST Monday for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 5 AM EST Monday for CTZ011-012. NY...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Warning from midnight Sunday night to 5 AM EST Monday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for NYZ072-074-075-178. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ067-068. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ080-179. NJ...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331- 332-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ335- 338. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...JT MARINE...DS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 18z GEFS Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Mean Snow 10:1 mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khushalg Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 my point and click!!!! holy.... Sunday Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 3pm. High near 37. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Monday Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow between 9am and noon. High near 35. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Where is this forecast for?! 12-18” forecasted overnight is something else!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, khushalg said: Where is this forecast for?! 12-18” forecasted overnight is something else! . South Amboy, 08879 Never seen anything like that in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, khushalg said: Where is this forecast for?! 12-18” forecasted overnight is something else! . Jersey. ACY has a similar forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 18z Summary Total QPF NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 2.1 / 19.6 NAM: 2.8 / 27.6 NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.3 / 12.9 RGEM: 1.1 / 11 GFS: 1.7 / 17.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7 UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2 GEFS Mean : 1.8 / 18.2 Updated with GEFS mean(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 0 wind outside, literally the calm before the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 41 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Do you have the snow map for this I am unable to post it and pivotal doesnt offer it on the non subscription free page. NYC was general 12 - 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Jim cantor coming to long island i hear from a nws met 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 No snowfall prediction thread yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Couldn't get much work done today due to the storm lolSo glad Monday is my NS day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: No snowfall prediction thread yet? Its pinned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RKO36 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: No snowfall prediction thread yet? 3-37" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 There's some confusing/ misleading stats going around but the last time nyc had a blizzard warning was 2017... long island i do believe was 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Still can’t believe this is happening lol 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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