JonClaw Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, NsWx516 said: Not sure if its been posted but New York has declared a State of Emergency Travel ban shouldn't be far behind now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 18z Summary Total QPF NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 2.1 / 19.6 NAM: 2.8 / 27.6 NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.3 / 12.9 RGEM: 1.1 / 11 GFS: 1.7 / 17.1 Updated GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: GFS not backing down. Pretty much the same as 12z Definiitely a noticeable tick SE, but not nearly enough to be problematic Realistically, the tracks arent THAT far off between the models, the GFS is just much more efficient at hurling that convection into the NW quadrant of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 Snow 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Definiitely a noticeable tick SE, but not nearly enough to be problematic Realistically, the tracks arent THAT far off between the models, the GFS is just much more efficient at hurling that convection into the NW quadrant of the low Definitely agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 37 minutes ago, North and West said: Question I’ll pose, albeit may be too early: does this have some hallmarks of the granddaddies of the past, some that some of us have been alive for, some that we’ve only heard about? My initial thoughts: March 1888 February 1978 January 1996 Of course there are others, but those three are some inner-circle, first ballot HoFers. Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen. . Feb 1983 - Measured many hours of snow accompanied by wind gusts to 50 - 65 mph. Location- East Northport. Equipment- Downeaster Models are forecasting similar winds on LI. I have a Davis Vantage Vue on Fire Island and will be watching the reports there with great interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Anyone have Upton maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. Nam might be closer than we think Yes....let's bring the 00z globals in strong, and then focus on mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, liwxfan said: Feb 2013 (nemo) for suffolk county. Had 30 inches and constant thundersnow. I compare all storms to that one out here. More intense then 96 for me. Same was twice as bad as 96. Grinds car was abandoned on LIE cooling home from work. Nicolls road was closed for a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, steve392 said: Anyone have Upton maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2.5" QPF on the GFS is acceptable lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 18z UKMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 1:1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 2.5" QPF on the GFS is acceptable lol I think what's at issue here is A: How much precip falls B: How much of that preceip is frozen I've seen anywhere from 1 inch to 3.5 inches of precip over NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 18z Summary Total QPF NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 2.1 / 19.6 NAM: 2.8 / 27.6 NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.3 / 12.9 RGEM: 1.1 / 11 GFS: 1.7 / 17.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7 UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2 Updated UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. Nam might be closer than we think Is the ridge in the west where we would want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 when do they send that alert that makes all the phones start blasting with a loud sound? Havent got one yet. Not officially a blizzard until I get that alert. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Couldn't get much work done today due to the storm lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, David-LI said: when do they send that alert that makes all the phones start blasting with a loud sound? Havent got one yet. Not officially a blizzard until I get that alert. The Blizzard Warning goes into effect at 1 pm tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. Nam might be closer than we think Why do you think the EURO is so far off-base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Not going to get dry snow with temps in mid 30s More like 30-32 at the height of storm but still yes more wet than dry if think although upper levels very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 21 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 Snow 10:1 Do you have the snow map for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lee Goldberg Honestly this is the best forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Instructor at work canceled classes for Monday. Snow day for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: I think what's at issue here is A: How much precip falls B: How much of that preceip is frozen I've seen anywhere from 1 inch to 3.5 inches of precip over NYC. May lose an inch or two during daytime. After dark it’s game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: May lose an inch or two during daytime. After dark it’s game on he talking about total precip not a inch or 2 of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Honestly this is the best forecast. really cant go wrong with that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Updated UKMETI'd like to point out there's about .8 qpf diff between nyc and 15 miles south and it doesn't like a southern adjustment, just some randomness from this run. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Pix 11 forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Do you have the snow map for thisX10. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 18z UKMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 1:1This is a tremendous cave to the GFS. To those saying they needed non-US models on board. Here you go... and it's possibly underdone based on Ukies bias. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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