nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 God 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 best run of the year! maybe decade! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 This runs gonna 15-30 Maryland to Boston my god 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 More on Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 That's a historic depiction on the GFS, kind of speechless looking at that tbh. Getting some January 1996 vibes with these late north bumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like the phase happens in a good spot and the 500mb low consolidates so we have a good enough mid level setup to generate lots of precip for most of us. one consolidated low it wobbles a little but it drops a lot QPF SO WHO CARES! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 If I could I'd take this GFS, run with it, protect it, nurture it... Here's hoping the Euro agrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2/20 12z GFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Classic KU event! Please Please Happen! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: More on Kuchera do kuchera bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Tip of the cap to Forky - called for a possible pattern ending/breaking Archambeault Event with KU potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, MJO812 said: More on Kuchera Yep that would be a crushing, shut it down run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: More on Kuchera Kuchie shows less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, nycsnow said: GFS OMG 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Chefs kiss on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 This run occludes about 6 hours later so the deformation banding is able to get further North and West. So just about everyone here would be looking at 12-18" with locally up to 30" possible under the heaviest banding, most likely Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, David-LI said: I was waiting for this! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 GFS coup is like watching a dog win an olympic gold medal 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Gfs is 40-60mph winds for the coast for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Since it will be asked, looks like start time would be Sunday early afternoon, from Southwest to Northeast. Heaviest snow would be Sunday evening/night with most of it over by this time on Monday with some residual bands possible as the storm starts to rot just East of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2/20 GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I don't care what the clown maps show, 2-4" per hour under this banding. Agreed the surface depiction doesn't capture this as well. Amounts would be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Okay, I'm officially excited. Almost 2" liquid into NYC and 1"+ back into PA and Upstate NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 CMC looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 11 hours ago, Rjay said: It's much closer than you think to something larger. But as of right now I wouldn't forecast anything more than what you said. After the 12z suite it will probably be ok to bump totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: GFS coup is like watching a dog win an olympic gold medal Ain't no rules says a dog can't play basketball. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Agreed the surface depiction doesn't capture this as well. Amounts would be higher If the GFS is correct, it will be puking snow for about an 8-12hr period on Sunday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The AIGFS continued a multi-run improving trend and the GFS was another excellent run... but it was actually slightly east of 6z with mid-level and surface lows. Reading the descriptions before checking the model, I expected an improvement. I think unfortunately people mostly just look at the QPF for their backyard when interpreting a model run. Anyway, a minor wobble in an OP run is just noise. The consistency of the GFS, especially considering other model trends, is very encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, eduggs said: The AIGFS continued a multi-run improving trend and the GFS was another excellent run... but it was actually slightly east of 6z with mid-level and surface lows. Reading the descriptions before checking the model, I expected an improvement. I think unfortunately people mostly just look at the QPF for their backyard when interpreting a model run. Anyway, a minor wobble in an OP run is just noise. The consistency of the GFS, especially considering other model trends, is very encouraging. Will be looking at GEFS to see if they stay the same or improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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