kat5hurricane Posted Wednesday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:58 PM 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Flat as a pancake. Either it's going to score a coup here or get embarrassed by the GFS/CMC I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Wednesday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:00 PM 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others. 100% agree. Not having the Euro on board is a problem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Wednesday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:02 PM Do you prefer Venmo, zelle, Apple Pay? I’ll take my 10 dollars He was talking about euro AI to be fair which is much better than euro. But def not tucked lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Wednesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:07 PM 46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: You want to talk about cuts to weather agencies? That is fine. Keep your other politics out of this forum. I come to places like this to get away from all that. Thanks Lol okay 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM Color me shocked that the Euro isn't on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Wednesday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:10 PM Maybe this one is different but flat as a pancake fits the tenor of this winter for any coastal storm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Wednesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:11 PM Just now, jm1220 said: Maybe this one is different but flat as a pancake fits the tenor of this winter for any coastal storm. Wave spacing is poor as Bluewave said. A SE ridge would be nice right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted Wednesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:25 PM Sunny weekend on the euro. I am not giving up until NAM is in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:26 PM Sizable shift east on euro ai eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:28 PM Big shift west on Ukie eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Wednesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:30 PM I still think a costal grazer is on the table but the fluctuating ensemble support, lack of EURO being on board, EC AIFS trending east makes it hard to put any faith in a major storm forum wide - not probable, but obviously not impossible. We're just starting to get some decent melting this week, so I'd be ok with a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:31 PM after reviewing 12Z Guidance 60 % chance - Advisory Level 40 % chance - SECS 30 % chance MECS 30 % chance below advisory level All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Wednesday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:32 PM Sizable shift east on euro ai epsErm, I can't see 6z but 12z is basically the same as 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:34 PM 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Erm, I can't see 6z but 12z is basically the same as 0z . 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:34 PM Ukie ensembles are lovely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:36 PM Euro eps gross not even worth posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:36 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie ensembles are lovely Models once again are all over the place 4 - 5 days out but overall improved from yesterdays let down - long way to go still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:36 PM Euro with the proverbial kick in the groin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:38 PM Euro eps just as gross as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:39 PM 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Euro with the proverbial kick in the groin does the EURO receive less data now because ofthe budget cuts here ? Who provides them data on U.S. soil ? I don't buy the EURO's being so different then the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Wednesday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:45 PM Need that stupid feature over SE Canada to get out of dodge so heights can rise ahead of the ULL, or else it will be squashed like the euro shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:46 PM 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Euro with the proverbial kick in the groin looks like last nights 0Z run - is it still working with last nights old data only ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Wednesday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:50 PM The model watching the past few days are like playing whack-a- mole. Another model run another solution. For the most part the 12z suite was encouraging but it feels tenuous at best with the Euro and EPS not on board. One would think in the next 24-36 hrs the fate with this storm will become much clearer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted Wednesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:56 PM 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: looks like last nights 0Z run - is it still working with last nights old data only ? Nice PHL-NYC snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Just now, mattinpa said: Nice PHL-NYC snow hole. doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Wednesday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:01 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z The Euro is THAT good. Always shows no storm this year and it's been right! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted Wednesday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:07 PM 37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: after reviewing 12Z Guidance 60 % chance - Advisory Level 40 % chance - SECS 30 % chance MECS 30 % chance below advisory level All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only Below advisory level is way higher than 30%. When the Euro and ensembles agree that this thing is a whiff the other models are pretty much just noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 07:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:08 PM Just now, kat5hurricane said: Below advisory level is way higher than 30% then make your own list 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted Wednesday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:11 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: then make your own list Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:17 PM 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The Euro is THAT good. Always shows no storm this year and it's been right! LOL Its been trash but it has the eps and gefs on the side. Still a very delicate situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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