Metasequoia Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: okay Negligible changes in pressure. Not important at this stage, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:03 PM Ai gefs west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted Tuesday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:10 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ai gefs west of 12z That's quite a gpf for five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Tuesday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:13 PM Lee Goldberg who I consider one of the more reliable Mets out there is really downplaying the Sunday threat. He said that the overall pattern does not support a strong storm. Also notes that there will be limited cold air and it will be a fast mover. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:14 PM Euro AI way east. Models are all over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:16 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro AI way east. Models are all over. I wouldn't say way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Tuesday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:21 PM 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: I wouldn't say way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:23 PM 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: How about the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:25 PM Any word on the 18z ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:26 PM Still at the pub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:28 PM Actually they posted the snow map in the MA forum for the AI. Looks like a 3 to 6 event here. Philly DC 6 to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:30 PM They posted the GEFS too. 7 out of 30 members have 6 plus. 2 members foot plus. 15 members 1 to 3 or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Tuesday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:31 PM 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How about the 18z Sorry meant to post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Tuesday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:32 PM Euro still not on board at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:33 PM 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS shows about a 23% of accumulating snow. Not saying it is correct, but keep expectations in check. From MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Tuesday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:44 PM Sorry meant to post it Still not seeing 18z how did it compare to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Tuesday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:45 PM I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Tuesday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:47 PM 33 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: Lee Goldberg who I consider one of the more reliable Mets out there is really downplaying the Sunday threat. He said that the overall pattern does not support a strong storm. Also notes that there will be limited cold air and it will be a fast mover. Am I missing something? i'm with him; he's one of the more reliable mets out there. then again, when has the overall pattern really delivered for us in recent years? all i ever hear about is wasted cold..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:48 PM 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs agreed - I don't like that the ensembles give little support to these overdone OP runs - we have been down this road before 5 days out - time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:58 PM Not over yet but the funny part was the EURO op stood alone at one point lol. Atrocious model performance outside of the EURO despite the fact that it was over 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Wednesday at 12:00 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:00 AM The only teleconectiion that supported a big hit was the negative PNA. Red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM 48 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: Lee Goldberg who I consider one of the more reliable Mets out there is really downplaying the Sunday threat. He said that the overall pattern does not support a strong storm. Also notes that there will be limited cold air and it will be a fast mover. Am I missing something? I like him too and I can see where he’s coming from. We’ve had so many chances this winter and only two big ones played out (mid December and January) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 12:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:03 AM 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not over yet but the funny part was the EURO op stood alone at one point lol. Atrocious model performance outside of the EURO despite the fact that it was over 5 days. Also - its curious that the Canadian wanted nothing to do with the storm phase then all of a sudden last night at 0Z and again at 12Z did an about face with a blizzard solution -0Z runs and beyond should be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:05 AM Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Wednesday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:06 AM 6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: For NYC and south yes. There's another half of the forum north of NYC. You folks are in a different climate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:08 AM 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The only teleconectiion that supported a big hit was the negative PNA. Red flag. Throwing in the towel 5 days out ? There is also some blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:09 AM 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat I guess the METS that don't like this pattern for a storm don't agree that the -PNA/AO supports larger storms that Don pointed out last night - Don had proof of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:09 AM 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat Models usually lose storms in the mid range to bring it back. Are you new ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:11 AM Just now, MJO812 said: Models usually lose storms in the mid range to bring it back. Are you new ? Typically yes, this year it’s been a torturous slow process of trending worse. Hopefully everything trends back at 00z, can’t expect a hit every run I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 12:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:13 AM We’re getting recon data tonight and 00z tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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