SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Well things escalated quickly tn....lol 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Rjay said: Well things escalated quickly tn....lol Time to lock the thread. It's only downhill from here. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 QPF Maps 2/22 - 2/23-24 ICON: GFS: GFS AI AIGFS: GGEM: UKM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 GEFS is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 36 minutes ago, Nibor said: Time to lock the thread. It's only downhill from here. now we wait for the Euro's to see if they join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 AI euro is a grazer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Nibor said: AI euro is a grazer. Nice hit for Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: now we wait for the Euro's to see if they join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ? Feb 2022? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, Nibor said: AI euro is a grazer. IMO thats a good signal this should be all frozen precip this far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Nada on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nada on euro Dr. No OP in a world of its own as of 0Z Feb. 17 - the 12Z Canadian OP also had that cutter LP near the GL but changed course at 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nada on euro hey whether this hits or not, i think euro has a good name but should be on the same category as icon which is crappy! euro just doesn't run anymore like it used to it's probably on the same levels as any other global model nothing special about it anymore! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: hey whether this hits or not, i think euro has a good name but should be on the same category as icon which is crappy! euro just doesn't run anymore like it used to it's probably on the same levels as any other global model nothing special about it anymore! The most encouraging news at 0Z was the Canadian coming on board with the coastal solution after a solution that looked similar to the just released 0Z Euro OP - its possible that the EURO is just behind a cycle- maybe didn't receive all the updated data at 0Z - who knows - the ensembles might give us a clue 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Nada on euro Eps loops decent. Discard the op. Euro has been struggling this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Geps is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 At the risk of pointing out the obvious, we have not one but two systems that need to resolve and play out that will have some impact on the upstream flow. There's at least 3 vortmax cluttered across the playing field immediately ahead of the two that would become the big coastal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 gfs ai is a historic blizzard it's that simple 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Regular gfs is a solid hit for most big hit for Jersey…. AIGFS colder and solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: gfs ai is a historic blizzard it's that simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Euro Ai looks perfect blizzard with 1-2 feet of snow area wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Acceptable.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Euro Ai looks perfect blizzard with 1-2 feet of snow area wide Unfortunately they are still a bit out of range but really nice consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 hours ago, Rjay said: It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread. Who cares. There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this range this year, it's fine to discuss a storm in a dedicated thread. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't but if it doesn't it's not bc a thread was started. The pattern doesn't look ideal for a big storm but who knows! Enjoy all the ups and downs of tracking a possible event. This forum is supposed to be fun. Enjoy the weather and may the odds be ever in your favor. I think we should have created a thread first to discuss whether we should create a thread. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place. Actually the model consensus is shockingly good for this storm given how far out it is 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I just checked in from yesterday and had that exact reaction! Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Actually the model consensus is shockingly good for this storm given how far out it is The OPs have been shifting around on the track and timing every 12 hrs. So we should just use an ensemble blend at this point and hold off on the details for a few days. It’s tough to get one really big storm when the systems are only 48hrs apart. But it’s not impossible. We will need some extra thread for this needle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6z EURO OP took a step towards the other models. Good improvements from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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