Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, MDstorm said:

Euro indicating some leaning towards east based, but not obnoxiously so.  However, that time frame is for June/July/August and things would likely evolve from that point on (either becoming more east based or migrating more towards a Modoki).  Of course, the Euro could be completely off from this juncture.  

Evolution of nino usually starts as east based then broadens to basin wide and ends as modoki as coastal South America cools/upwells. This time we should probably use RONI for the strength of el nino because the tropics are also warm across the board. 

[mitchnick]

Here's a link to the Cansips SSTA starting in November.  Looks basinwide with a lean to the west. Not a classic Modoki imho unfortunately. But the key will be the PDO and blocking coupled with this forecast, right or wrong. Forecast will be updated this weekend. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026020100&fh=9

[CAPE]

March 2-3 still looking interesting with a weakish wave moving eastward underneath cold HP to the north.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS has the early next week threat as well.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS PNA support for early next week as well.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS shows maybe enough cold air with the negative WPO early next week, lights out for at least awhile by the end of next week as warm air surges east.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for early next week.

[WxUSAF]

End of next week continues to look torchy. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Evolution of nino usually starts as east based then broadens to basin wide and ends as modoki as coastal South America cools/upwells. This time we should probably use RONI for the strength of el nino because the tropics are also warm across the board. 

 

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Here's a link to the Cansips SSTA starting in November.  Looks basinwide with a lean to the west. Not a classic Modoki imho unfortunately. But the key will be the PDO and blocking coupled with this forecast, right or wrong. Forecast will be updated this weekend. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026020100&fh=9

 A couple of things I've noted when looking at SST's leading into all our Ninos and our snowfall results.  How the Nino starts has more impact than how it ends, unfortunately.  A true Modoki starts out west based (which is rare, most start east and evolve west but those don't have as much positive impact on our snowfall as ones that start and stay west based)  I think a true Modoki is unlikely at this time.

2002/3 was a perfect classic example of a Modoki nino

  If you ignore the anomalies right along the central america coast which were not completely related to the nino, those would actually have been slightly SW of there in a true east  based nino, the core of the warmest anomalies at the inception of the nino in September 2002 was clearly out near the dateline.  A true Modoki.  

But a basin wide representation ups our chances of a truly massive snowfall over an east based.  The strength matters.  The best seems to be a moderate basin wide.  2010 fell into this category. 

 

If a basin wide goes strong it becomes like 1983 and 2016, much warmer but still with an increased chance of a massive storm if we can just time one STJ wave up with just a cold enough airmass.  

 

Basin wide events actually have the highest correlation with HECS storms!  

Below is how I would categorize the different options.  I am only categorizing moderate to strong here because weak ninos are a wildcard.  IF they gain the necessary strength to impact the pattern they act like a moderate.  If they do not, the winter tends to behave more like an enso neutral.  Somewhere between weak and moderate is a tipping point where a nino actually behaves like we think of as nino.  But let's assume this next event is strong enough to reach that threshold...then the chart below is what I've noted looking at all our enso events

From best to worst although this is subjective 

True Modoki Event strong or moderate:  the strentgh of a true modoki doesn't seem to matter as much, but a true modoki event has never attained super nino status, they seem to cap at borderline moderate/strong.  A true modoki typically ends up more EPO driven than NAO, colder, more moderate snow threats, but with more events due to the enhanced STJ. 

Moderate basin wide: 

Our best chance at a HECS storm AND a colder nino if we get the NAO to cooperate.  2010 is the perfect example of when this type goes right

Strong basin wide:

elevated chance of a HECS but overall a warm winter is likely, Think 1983 and 2016

moderate east based: 

These tend to be somewhat warm winters but have produced some snowy periods if we can get cold for a few weeks with the enhanced STJ but overall they average out to slightly below avg snowfall for Baltimore

Strong East based: 

disaster, they are wall to wall torch winters, think 1998 

[Nomz]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS for early next week.

Boston gets 18 again

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 A couple of things I've noted when looking at SST's leading into all our Ninos and our snowfall results.  How the Nino starts has more impact than how it ends, unfortunately.  A true Modoki starts out west based (which is rare, most start east and evolve west but those don't have as much positive impact on our snowfall as ones that start and stay west based)  I think a true Modoki is unlikely at this time.

2002/3 was a perfect classic example of a Modoki nino

  If you ignore the anomalies right along the central america coast which were not completely related to the nino, those would actually have been slightly SW of there in a true east  based nino, the core of the warmest anomalies at the inception of the nino in September 2002 was clearly out near the dateline.  A true Modoki.  

But a basin wide representation ups our chances of a truly massive snowfall over an east based.  The strength matters.  The best seems to be a moderate basin wide.  2010 fell into this category. 

 

If a basin wide goes strong it becomes like 1983 and 2016, much warmer but still with an increased chance of a massive storm if we can just time one STJ wave up with just a cold enough airmass.  

 

Basin wide events actually have the highest correlation with HECS storms!  

Below is how I would categorize the different options.  I am only categorizing moderate to strong here because weak ninos are a wildcard.  IF they gain the necessary strength to impact the pattern they act like a moderate.  If they do not, the winter tends to behave more like an enso neutral.  Somewhere between weak and moderate is a tipping point where a nino actually behaves like we think of as nino.  But let's assume this next event is strong enough to reach that threshold...then the chart below is what I've noted looking at all our enso events

From best to worst although this is subjective 

True Modoki Event strong or moderate:  the strentgh of a true modoki doesn't seem to matter as much, but a true modoki event has never attained super nino status, they seem to cap at borderline moderate/strong.  A true modoki typically ends up more EPO driven than NAO, colder, more moderate snow threats, but with more events due to the enhanced STJ. 

Moderate basin wide: 

Our best chance at a HECS storm AND a colder nino if we get the NAO to cooperate.  2010 is the perfect example of when this type goes right

Strong basin wide:

elevated chance of a HECS but overall a warm winter is likely, Think 1983 and 2016

moderate east based: 

These tend to be somewhat warm winters but have produced some snowy periods if we can get cold for a few weeks with the enhanced STJ but overall they average out to slightly below avg snowfall for Baltimore

Strong East based: 

disaster, they are wall to wall torch winters, think 1998 

Great post, thank you. We’ll keep an eye on how the nino develops and how much it strengthens. I don’t know how we will end up categorizing the type, but I don’t think we go higher than moderate based on RONI.

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 A couple of things I've noted when looking at SST's leading into all our Ninos and our snowfall results.  How the Nino starts has more impact than how it ends, unfortunately.  A true Modoki starts out west based (which is rare, most start east and evolve west but those don't have as much positive impact on our snowfall as ones that start and stay west based)  I think a true Modoki is unlikely at this time.

2002/3 was a perfect classic example of a Modoki nino

  If you ignore the anomalies right along the central america coast which were not completely related to the nino, those would actually have been slightly SW of there in a true east  based nino, the core of the warmest anomalies at the inception of the nino in September 2002 was clearly out near the dateline.  A true Modoki.  

But a basin wide representation ups our chances of a truly massive snowfall over an east based.  The strength matters.  The best seems to be a moderate basin wide.  2010 fell into this category. 

 

If a basin wide goes strong it becomes like 1983 and 2016, much warmer but still with an increased chance of a massive storm if we can just time one STJ wave up with just a cold enough airmass.  

 

Basin wide events actually have the highest correlation with HECS storms!  

Below is how I would categorize the different options.  I am only categorizing moderate to strong here because weak ninos are a wildcard.  IF they gain the necessary strength to impact the pattern they act like a moderate.  If they do not, the winter tends to behave more like an enso neutral.  Somewhere between weak and moderate is a tipping point where a nino actually behaves like we think of as nino.  But let's assume this next event is strong enough to reach that threshold...then the chart below is what I've noted looking at all our enso events

From best to worst although this is subjective 

True Modoki Event strong or moderate:  the strentgh of a true modoki doesn't seem to matter as much, but a true modoki event has never attained super nino status, they seem to cap at borderline moderate/strong.  A true modoki typically ends up more EPO driven than NAO, colder, more moderate snow threats, but with more events due to the enhanced STJ. 

Moderate basin wide: 

Our best chance at a HECS storm AND a colder nino if we get the NAO to cooperate.  2010 is the perfect example of when this type goes right

Strong basin wide:

elevated chance of a HECS but overall a warm winter is likely, Think 1983 and 2016

moderate east based: 

These tend to be somewhat warm winters but have produced some snowy periods if we can get cold for a few weeks with the enhanced STJ but overall they average out to slightly below avg snowfall for Baltimore

Strong East based: 

disaster, they are wall to wall torch winters, think 1998 

do you think we'll ever get a winter as good or better than 2009-10, or did literally everything go right with that season?

[yoda]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

End of next week continues to look torchy. 

Good.  Bring the torch.  I'm ready for 60s

[dailylurker]

Just now, bncho said:

do you think we'll ever get a winter as good or better than 2009-10, or did literally everything go right with that season?

Imo we just had a winter as good as 2010. Their wasn't much winter that winter. Just big snows that melted within a week or so. Those were fun storms but I had more fun this winter.