Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, MDstorm said:

Euro indicating some leaning towards east based, but not obnoxiously so.  However, that time frame is for June/July/August and things would likely evolve from that point on (either becoming more east based or migrating more towards a Modoki).  Of course, the Euro could be completely off from this juncture.  

Evolution of nino usually starts as east based then broadens to basin wide and ends as modoki as coastal South America cools/upwells. This time we should probably use RONI for the strength of el nino because the tropics are also warm across the board. 

[mitchnick]

Here's a link to the Cansips SSTA starting in November.  Looks basinwide with a lean to the west. Not a classic Modoki imho unfortunately. But the key will be the PDO and blocking coupled with this forecast, right or wrong. Forecast will be updated this weekend. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026020100&fh=9

[CAPE]

March 2-3 still looking interesting with a weakish wave moving eastward underneath cold HP to the north.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS has the early next week threat as well.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS PNA support for early next week as well.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS shows maybe enough cold air with the negative WPO early next week, lights out for at least a while by the end of next week as warm air surges east.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for early next week.