Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Time for the 18z runs to pull us all back in. So that we can all bail tomorrow with a 12z fail

I dunno why people think the ICON at 100+ hours will be consistent.  Let’s keep the ai ensembles on our side til Thursday, get the EPS on board tonight or tomorrow, and then dial the ops in Thursday and Friday. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Icon closes off a 500mb low over ohio at the last second. Extrapolated it would probably try to hook the coastal back towards long island.

Just gonna say, I'd roll the dice with these 2 maps.

[bncho]

surface depiction is better than 12z but it's defo a nod to the euro in synoptics

[Nomz]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

None of these models can string together 2 consecutive near identical runs in a row.

Snippet from LWX AFD:

To show the
uncertainty, EPS 50th pcntl is a coating to inch for most (several
inches Alleghenies) while 90th pcntl is a solid 10-15". If the storm
does come to fruition, could be rather impactful as seen in WPC
PWSSI probs. Could also be a swing and a miss. Time will tell.

 Not even close to nailed down. Expect a bust and be pleasantly surprised if we boom.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I wouldn't say it's a nod to the Euro. It's much better actually, but not as good as 12z.

Very late bloomer.

Not much precip at all to the west. Basically gets going over top of us. 

I have nightmares from  that scenario lol

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Very late bloomer.

Not much precip at all to the west. Basically gets going over top of us. 

I have nightmares from  that scenario lol

 

Wake up and go to sleep.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Snippet from LWX AFD:

To show the
uncertainty, EPS 50th pcntl is a coating to inch for most (several
inches Alleghenies) while 90th pcntl is a solid 10-15". If the storm
does come to fruition, could be rather impactful as seen in WPC
PWSSI probs. Could also be a swing and a miss. Time will tell.

 Not even close to nailed down. Expect a bust and be pleasantly surprised if we boom.

Not only this threat, every threat is a shell game with features leading right up to the event/non-event. 

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just gonna say, I'd roll the dice with these 2 maps.

This type of setup is pretty sensitive to a last second amplification. 

[WesternFringe]

9 hours ago, stormy said:

yeah!  First impressions are not always lasting impressions.

It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov

This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte.

The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM.  They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble.

Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

 

Euro had a pretty expansive precip shield for not being able to ‘find the storm.’

[Maestrobjwa]

This feels like something that is gonna trend more and more east/develop later and later from this model suite on, smh

[LP08]

GFS is awfully flat through 93 compared to 12z.

[Solution Man]

Just now, LP08 said:

GFS is awfully flat through 93 compared to 12z.

It better get going soon

[MickeyTim6533]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This feels like something that is gonna trend east/develop later and later from this model suite on, smh

I think you can already see the start of that on the 18z

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

I think you can already see the start of that on the 18z

Yep. 12z Aigfs has had a consolidated vort at hr 102 all this time...18z it's split and is later coming together

[Solution Man]

something cooking up @ 108

[bncho]

it’s gonna work for now

[Solution Man]

114 snow into the region and LP development on nc coast

[clskinsfan]

Not as amped and south. Sounds familiar....

[Solution Man]

Moderate snow 117

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

it’s gonna work for now

Yeah but it's clearly a move toward the Euro. Not sure it's gonna come back west in future runs.

[Solution Man]

Moderate snow through hour 123, may work out

[clskinsfan]

Gets wound up in time to crush VA beach. Shocking I tell ya. 

[Solution Man]

Moderate snow at 126, it may come up coast

[Solution Man]

Va eastern shore gets pounded 

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Moderate snow at 126, it may come up coast

 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Moderate snow at 126, it may come up coast

nope

[Scraff]

Looks like a @CAPE special. 

[Chris78]

Both Icon and GFS heading towards the euro at 18z

[bncho]

These models need to cut out the BS or we ain’t having a storm by 12z tomorrow

[clskinsfan]

Looks like every other fail in the past decade. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over