Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

You’re right, wrong panels

This is a bncho performance in PBP.

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pretty sure the EURO says what storm even for SNE but I don’t have all the panels to be 100% sure

Looks like its a tad too late for us... but sne gets hit 

[mitchnick]

Is this Euro we're waiting on the same one that gave us PDIII last week ago with a foot+? Yeah, I  thought so. The hell with that model, especially when it it looks nothing like it's AI brother.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Yeah with lasts night storm at this range the euro ai basically had the idea right while the euro op had a major blizzard for New England which of course didn’t happen.  Euro ai gets the Synoptics right and then as we get closer the other models refine the forecast. 

[mitchnick]

Eps have been pretty snowy for this threat thru 0z's run. We'll see shortly how they look.

[GreyHat]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We all know they can suck, but being constantly pessimistic sux more, so we stay optimistic.

Okay, I see your point 

[Terpeast]

Op euro doesn’t quite do it, but a step closer to the good camps. We don’t have consensus yet, so probably need to wait until Wednesday for that. 

[Terpeast]

EPS jumped south with qpf and snow means, more consolidated MSLP signal

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Op euro doesn’t quite do it, but a step closer to the good camps. We don’t have consensus yet, so probably need to wait until Wednesday for that. 

Hopefully this week is better as the handwriting on the wall was evident last Wednesday 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

EPS jumped south with qpf and snow means, more consolidated MSLP signal

that's good right?...not sure I know what's good anymore...sounds good

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

EPS jumped south with qpf and snow means, more consolidated MSLP signal

"Jumping south" is the phrase of the winter in most threats.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Op euro doesn’t quite do it, but a step closer to the good camps. We don’t have consensus yet, so probably need to wait until Wednesday for that. 

Wednesday? Psssh maybe by Saturday we will have consensus. 

[GreyHat]

32 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

They have struggled but when the global lock in together, it’s fairly clean

I've seen this happen before when the models were on board. Back then the Euro was labeled King. Back then I followed a lot on wxdisco.com. Just saying I'm not getting my hopes up till Friday. I like the reading and everyone thoughts. 

 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Wednesday? Psssh maybe by Saturday we will have consensus. 

We had consensus last Wed for last night’s storm. Just a few straggler models trying to reel us back in

[RickinBaltimore]

One of those times I'd rather not see snow this weekend. Oldest is performing in the Maryland All State Chorus on Sunday. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, RickinBaltimore said:

One of those times I'd rather not see snow this weekend. Oldest is performing in the Maryland All State Chorus on Sunday. 

Now you know it's going to snow. It's always when you don't want it to snow that it actually snows here. Thank you for your help. 

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We had consensus last Wed for last night’s storm. Just a few straggler models trying to reel us back in

Maybe for you. Gfs, Nam had me getting 3”+ a day out and euro still showed a little snow inside 48 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Maybe for you. Gfs, Nam had me getting 3”+ a day out and euro still showed a little snow inside 48 

Yep. Models have struggled up here with their snow happy tendencies for the past few years.  Once they finally realize I moved up here from Bwi land, reality will set in and they'll start denying snow regularly more in line with my curse. 

[brooklynwx99]

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

[soadforecasterx]

IDK seems like Nam/GFS did a good job for the most part with this part storm. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

IDK seems like Nam/GFS did a good job for the most part with this part storm. 

But it didn’t. 

[jewell2188]

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

MJO is a pattern driver. That means that it will favor certain patterns, but that doesn't mean those favored patterns will happen all the time. If it's a look like @brooklynwx99 showed up there, the MJO is negligible.

[bncho]

Here were some EPS members that I found cool

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

I see that this hobby isn’t for you

[Kevin Reilly]

22 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

IDK seems like Nam/GFS did a good job for the most part with this part storm. 

That’s a laugh. 
 

unremarkable here.

Drizzle 40s upper 30s 3:00 to 7:00

snow mixed with rain from 7:30 to 11:45 33f 

We had snow 11:50 to 2:00 am

result 0.03” of snow

rain total 0.19” 

models gfs and HRRR consistently showed 2-4” here were terrible even amount of precipitation would not have produced that here. 

Model score card for central Delaware County F.

[winter_warlock]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

Here were some EPS members that I found cool

 I'd take either one lol

[TSSN+]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

Here were some EPS members that I found cool

Ya if 02 happened I’d eat my boots 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

Starving for attention are we?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That’s a laugh. 
 

unremarkable here.

Drizzle 40s upper 30s 3:00 to 7:00

snow mixed with rain from 7:30 to 11:45 33f 

We had snow 11:50 to 2:00 am

result 0.03” of snow

rain total 0.19” 

models gfs and HRRR consistently showed 2-4” here were terrible even amount of precipitation would not have produced that here. 

Model score card for central Delaware County F.

The NAM did a remarkable(well not for the NAM) 180 from one run to the next near gametime.

The ICON was better lol.