2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

WWB after WWB after WWB, DWKW after DWKW…

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. 

Nope. It's called faith.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd be careful with the bold ...

The straight up linear correlation, sure - that's ...sort of similar to the tripole SST state, which is highly correlated to -NAOs..etc..etc..but, the causality of why that colder region is notable there is circumstantially - quite possibly - evolved for different reason..   Mimicry, in other words.   

There's is ongoing research about a recent decadal persistent "Atlantic cold blob" that is being geophysically connected to a longer term changes/flux of the AMOC ... Of course, CC and attribution science is all over that.  Some bigger media, definitely social media doomers, are pumping out warnings how that portends the end of the G-string circulation eddy et al ... reaming on people's chode hair that the new paradigm will mean a black and white noir this that and the other Michael Bay plot line surreality ...   yadda yadda.  

Who knows, but the point is, if there are kernels of truth to that whole science and/or science-narrative, on-going, then it's being caused for other reasons.

Decadal trend lines of NAO are pretty linear with what's happening. We've had pretty much 14 straight +NAO Winter's, at the height of this decadal +NAO phase. Some think it's associated with lagged +AMO. Over the next several decades the "long term cold blob" will likely be somewhere else or reverse. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems that NAO is far more malleable and influenced by the solar cycle and ENSO than the AO, so I feel strongly that the AO will be lower than the NAO this season.

That's really been a story for a long time now. 

Since 2012, Summer Arctic Summer SLP anomaly (60-90) has reversed for the following Winter almost every time! 

Gawx showing cold records consistently happening there this warm season is a strong signal for Winter -AO I believe. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 7/20/2026 at 11:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO.

I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average

January the coldest month of the year was -NAO

97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average

January the coldest month of the year was -NAO

97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell. 

 

Agree...what I said. lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree...what I said. lol

Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol

Nope, literal- question mark was confusing, I guess.

My bad-

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Isn’t that pretty much the case with everything humans do/have done?

Many things but not everything. Rain acidification, poor air quality practices, ozone hole tackled as environmental issues in the 20th century because of domestic and international cooperation. Those prove as examples that run counter to the idea that finger pointing and short term thinking are all we can do when presented with anthropogenic environmental threats with long time horizons. 

[snowman19]

@GaWx  @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave @LakePaste25

Almost a guarantee that the record rise in the MEI since April continues unabated. This El Niño system is extremely well coupled, ocean-atmosphere (Bjerknes feedback). Textbook. Coupling right down to the ERWs. Feeling more and more confident that we see a +2 MEI by met fall…..

[MJO812]

So many click bait winter outlooks from meteorologists on YouTube calling for a snowy winter for the Northeast due to the strong STJ.

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So many click bait winter outlooks from meteorologists on YouTube calling for a snowy winter for the Northeast due to the strong STJ.

 Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.

Especially considering the quality forecasts they can get on this Board. 

[EasternLI]

It's really an excellent site David Gold has put together. Tons of great stuff. It's so nice to be able to see the actual AAM charts again. I'm glad someone has decided to keep up the work with these. These are so much more helpful than simply a positive or negative reading. For example here, we can see the la nina fade away it's influence on the atmosphere as we headed through May. With increasingly el nino conditions exerting influence. One last gasp of the residual la nina around mid June. Now, this el nino looks to be increasingly taking control from here on out as per AIFS forecasts and these obs. Also of note, what has been a very active jet in the Southern hemisphere. Which has been pointed out in this thread too. 

 

[snowman19]

+AAM as far as the eye can see
 

 

In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….

 

[snowman19]

We’ve now passed 1997’s OHC record, we are over +2.6C



The Peru weather service just updated, they are expecting “extraordinary” (aka super) El Niño costero (region 1+2) conditions, with SSTs greater than +3.5C to continue into 2027…..



Region 3.4 continues shattering SST records

[bluewave]

Pretty wild how we have had elements of the summer 2011 weather pattern against the backdrop of such an extreme developing El Nino. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	107.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
2	106.0	2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03
-	106.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
3	104.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
4	103.0	2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04
-	103.0	2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25
-	103.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24
-	103.0	2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

+AAM as far as the eye can see
 

 

In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….

 

Yes, this is confirming that the tropics are 100% in El Nino mode, but I await more evidence that the mid latitudes are.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is confirming that the tropics are 100% in El Nino mode, but I await more evidence that the mid latitudes are.

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty wild how we have had elements of the summer 2011 weather pattern against the backdrop of such an extreme developing El Nino. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	107.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
2	106.0	2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03
-	106.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
3	104.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
4	103.0	2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04
-	103.0	2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25
-	103.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24
-	103.0	2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18

 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Decadal trend lines of NAO are pretty linear with what's happening. We've had pretty much 14 straight +NAO Winter's, at the height of this decadal +NAO phase. Some think it's associated with lagged +AMO. Over the next several decades the "long term cold blob" will likely be somewhere else or reverse. 

It's placement geographically is beside the point. 

The mechanism for it's persistence/necessity in the science of CC attribution et al, or for whatever reason, gets in the way of the NAO/tripole assumption.  That is the point. 

Thus, relying on it as a predictor for atmospheric behavior tendencies/correlations therein, are riskier - because those are driven by disparate total physical processes.  The NAO/tripole physics are different than the AMOC for it being a ( possible ) geologic permanent change. 

I'm not saying the AMOC is collapsing, per se.  Maybe it is.  Maybe it isn't. However, just advising that it is being scienced as occurring for that reason.  So We'll see...  But, if so ...the cold blob reflects the AMOC changes... not an NAO forcing (necessarily).

Put even simpler...  cold blog exists, NAO is biased positive. Tough cookies. 

The other aspect, the longer term correlation between the Pacific and NAO is transmitted through the N/A via the PNA.  It's positive.  Which means, when the PNA is positive, the NAO tends to be positive, and vice versa.   So ...I'm not sure how a positive ENSO/+PNA correlation favors that -NAO ... it doesn't based on that.  But that may not be the whole story - there may be something specific to El Nino that gets that anti-correlation to realize more frequently, during the El Nino winter?   These kinds of exceptions exist in principle... worth looking for that. I kind of doubt it though.   In the meantime, it makes intuitive sense that a +PNA jives with a +NAO and vice versa, because of winter planetary wave lengths and the speed of the basal flow.  It would be hard to maintain a western N/A highly curvaceous flow and then expect the flow to bend back around into block over the D. Straight region, when flow is necessarily screwing along at ludicrous speeds due to the hemispheric gradient during DJF.   Fast flow does not like curved surfaces... that's just physics.  Curving the flow increases centrifugal -acceleration; and so as the flow speeds up that force is trying to cancel the curvature and flatten out.  Ex,  in April the flow tends to close off vortices; there is deceleration in the as the geopotential gradient is collapsing. The flow folds in on itself with the loss of basal velocity. 

That's probably why a latter March thru early May -NAO boat ride isn't that uncommon.  Because the flow collapses and the excessive wave transport gets stranded and loads that region.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Boston just had their warmest June 1st to July 16th. Significantly warmer than any other developing super El Niño. So an unusually strong mid-latitude or subtropical ridge response for such a strong El Niño.

This year was +5.5° above the mean of the previous 5 early summer average.

Developing super El Niño June 1st to July 16th average temperatures 

2026….73.9°

2023….68.9°

2015…..67.3°

1997…..70.5°

1982….66.9°

1972….68.2°
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Boston just had their warmest June 1st to July 16th. Significantly warmer than any other developing super El Niño. So an unusually strong mid-latitude or subtropical ridge response for such a strong El Niño.

This year was +5.5° above the mean of the previous 5 early summer average.

Developing super El Niño June 1st to July 16th average temperatures 

2026….73.9°

2023….68.9°

2015…..67.3°

1997…..70.5°

1982….66.9°

1972….68.2°
 

 

I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. 

If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing.   Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' )

We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific.  Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago.  Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that.  But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway.  So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues.  Okay -   Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. 

If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing.   Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' )

We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific.  Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago.  Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that.  But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway.  So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues.  Okay -   Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha

I hate the heat, but the humidity is no prize, either....but I expect that in August...by far the most humid month, while July is hottest. It's the inverse of the winter, when January is coldest, but February is snowiest. at least here on the east coast.

[GaWx]

Latest mean of CFS AAM prog: steady as she goes +1.5 to +2.0 into mid August indicative of strong El Niño (further out usually higher/too high due to + bias):

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. 

If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing.   Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' )

We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific.  Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago.  Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that.  But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway.  So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues.  Okay -   Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha

The next potential record breaking 600 DM ridge amplification will be much further west over the Rockies next week than the recent one over the Upper Midwest. That’s good news for our part of the CONUS.

Most summers since 2010 with 100° heat in June and July for our area remained under 100° in August. Hope that recent pattern continues.

Still not an El Niño-like pattern but an improvement for the Northeast.

 

 

[GaWx]

Last 90 days of MJO still is when averaged the most left-sided on diagram for this time of year, April 22nd-July 20th, for any year on record (back to 1975…I just looked at all of them) and this new record should hold through the end of July at least. Anybody know what this means?

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Last 90 days of MJO still is when averaged the most left-sided on diagram for this time of year, April 22nd-July 20th, for any year on record (back to 1975…I just looked at all of them) and this new record should hold through the end of July at least. Anybody know what this means?

This is the strong atmospheric coupling with El Niño being reflected in the RMM’s. You might get the occasional weak pulse that crosses the IO which would bring it into the COD from time to time on the mean before looping back around into 7-8-1. That’s basically what is about to happen:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am getting a great deal of consensus from an early stage just like I did last season, which proved pretty damn accurate. My polar domain assessment should be ready hopefully before the weekend. It's taken a bit longer than I had hoped, which is par for the course if you're doing it right.

[GaWx]

 The 7/21/26 WCS PDO of -1.56 is the lowest since way back on 11/8/25:

[snowman19]

The EPAC TC train has left the station….