2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift the north Pacific over the past couple of years.

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.

Hey personally while I love sustained cold, don't have to have it. The snow is the bigger thing for me. I just don't want a 72-73 or 97-98 1.2" snow total...it seems super niños are boom or bust where I am.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar

[FPizz]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Epitomizes your online contributions over the course of the past two decades....what a waste of a degree. Plenty of highly esteemed contributors like @bluewaveand @raindancewx are pretty painfully objective with regard to east coast winter prospects...it's not about that. You just don't offer much value not because you aren't capable, but you allocate all of your time and energy towards mindless trolling.

When he posts on 33 hes better because hes afraid of the 2 guys in charge.  Its quite funny.

[LakePaste25]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

When he posts on 33 hes better because hes afraid of the 2 guys in charge.  Its quite funny.

Oh, I know...he has a lot to offer...he used to DM me some times in the lead up to large events. He just doesn't take this site seriously, which is fine, but in that case just lurk.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts....

[Typhoon Tip]

Super duper bust?

Moderate ENSO might still be able to penetrate RONI 

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar

Early trade wind pattern in this event certainly looked like 72-73. Then tilted more towards 97-98. It's a souped up version of those older canonical events, imo, if superimposed on a warmer background state. Problem is I think the warm pool is coming even further east than '98 did (that event got to about 150W) and it will drag everything else into resonance with it, so makes a straight shot comparison more muddled.

[csnavywx]

Case in point. We were slightly behind 97/98 with thermocline depression. That year took a break in July before turning the turbojets back on. This one doesn't appear to be taking a breather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Early trade wind pattern in this event certainly looked like 72-73. Then tilted more towards 97-98. It's a souped up version of those older canonical events, imo, if superimposed on a warmer background state. Problem is I think the warm pool is coming even further east than '98 did (that event got to about 150W) and it will drag everything else into resonance with it, so makes a straight shot comparison more muddled.

Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.

[BlizzardWx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all. 

[snowman19]

Region 3.4 record-breaking:
 

Region 1+2 also off the charts, the only El Niño event in history that was warmer in 1+2 at this point in time was 1997 and it wasn’t warmer by much

 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Case in point. We were slightly behind 97/98 with thermocline depression. That year took a break in July before turning the turbojets back on. This one doesn't appear to be taking a breather.

This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall…


 

 

 

 

 

 

@LakePaste25 30kt westerlies to 120W lol

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all. 

Yes, I hear that....but first of all,  I feel as though at this range, the reluctance to forecast an event of an unprecedented magnitude/nature should take precedence with any ultimate capitulation reserved for closer lead times. In other words....in July, it's safer to heavily incorporate analogs and if it still looks unprecedented later this summer and into the fall, then revisit. Secondly, this is just me musing when I offer guesstimates in the forum like that...it's not as though I'm issuing any type of published forecast online or anything. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall…


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from 2023-2024 super El Nino for the first time was an early signal something was different this time.

Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 was in 2025 than all the previous years following super El Niños.

Almost like a bridge between the two super El Niños only three years apart.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all. 

1877-78 is probably the closest to an extreme east based event. Unfortunately I cannot change the 1991-2020 climatology for this map (not an option), so you have to extrapolate that the anomalies in Nino 3 here were likely extreme for its time since the baseline SST’s have warmed since then.