2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino who?

ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)

Now you've done it. Just wait for all those 246hr Gfs snowstorm maps this winter from us weenies.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Now you've done it. Just wait for all those 246hr Gfs snowstorm maps this winter from us weenies.

Will it show the lowest DM ever recorded in US?

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie.

That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Thats crazy how it skipped over Pittsburgh. Detroit hit 102 and NYC 104.

The month had 14 days 90+ at DTW & 11 days at NYC 

[cmillzz]

Strongest Niño on record with no precedence along with other competing factors and even some lingering niña-like effects. Wouldn’t be confident at all in making calls for the upcoming winter, especially at this juncture. Only confidence is that it’ll likely be very warm at times, and very statistically unlikely to be as cold as last winter in the East (even without taking ENSO into account).

[cmillzz]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie.

That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Give me a spring like 1977 next year please. Still remains the warmest on record in my city, even beating out 2012 (and by far the warmest May). Kinda doesn’t really make sense either as it was a complete outlier in an era that was dominated by cold seasons in general (not just winter). Wonder what led to that happening.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however. 

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Give me a spring like 1977 next year please. Still remains the warmest on record in my city, even beating out 2012 (and by far the warmest May). Kinda doesn’t really make sense either as it was a complete outlier in an era that was dominated by cold seasons in general (not just winter). Wonder what led to that happening.

As I said, idk what happened at PIT but July 1977 had some brutal heat. However summers with brutal heat, regardless of the winter, are not uncommon in this area with our extreme seasons. But I do think spring 1977 gets lost in the shuffle. That was a very impressive and fast change from one of the coldest winters on record to one of the warmest springs.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.

We have been experiencing record heat here in the East at times going back to March related to the record breaking subtropical tropical ridges from 30N to 45N.

Most times very strong to super El Niños feature more troughs and low pressure at these latitudes during this time of year. The ridges are usually further north on the continent in Canada. This has lead to the mid-latitude Atlantic SSTs  joining the very warm mid-latitude Pacific SSTs.

This is probably related to the ongoing expansion of the subtropical ridges over the years. Plus we have very extensive drought in the CONUS  at this time. Also when forcing shifts back to the IO and MC we tend to see the peak warmth and ridging in the East. 

The reason the -PDO and +AMO pattern has been so persistent in recent years is due to these strong ridges leading to lighter winds and more sunshine warming the ocean surface below.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

June 2026 PDO: -1.75

AMJ 2026 ONI: 1.0

AMJ 2026 RONI: 0.5

[George001]

26 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

June 2026 PDO: -1.75

AMJ 2026 ONI: 1.0

AMJ 2026 RONI: 0.5

ONI of 1.0 is noteworthy this early. It’s on par with 15-16 and ahead of 97-98, 82-83 and 72-73. Even the RONI of 0.5 is impressive at this stage, most El Niños don’t develop until much later. 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)!

Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin:  freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing):

0260618 169 272.561676
20260619 170 272.634399
20260620 171 272.647522
20260621 172 272.469360
20260622 173 272.153870
20260623 174 271.679565
20260624 175 271.918213
20260625 176 272.421326
20260626 177 272.655334
20260627 178 272.803802
20260628 179 272.680786
20260629 180 272.732056
20260630 181 272.903717
20260701 182 272.963715
20260702 183 273.045624

https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt

July 3rd cooled back very slightly. So, the DMI 80N+ mean Arctic temp still hasn’t reached 0C! The old record latest was 6/20/2013.

[snowman19]

[BlizzardWx]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

And it's not going to stop either. Both sides of the Pacific are going to stay active into fall, and El Nino is going to keep on rolling as continuous WWBs push it to full throttle. 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

And it's not going to stop either. Both sides of the Pacific are going to stay active into fall, and El Nino is going to keep on rolling as continuous WWBs push it to full throttle. 

Bjerknes feedback in full force. And yea, the EPAC is about to be off to the races with TC’s this month too

[bluewave]

June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

All-Time June SST records in bold

YR   MON  NINO1+2  ANOM   NINO3    ANOM   NINO4    ANOM   NINO3.4  ANOM

2026   6   25.94    2.82   28.33    1.71   30.19    1.22   29.17    1.44

2023   6   25.63    2.50   27.88    1.26   29.55    0.58   28.57    0.84

2015   6   25.32    2.19   28.07    1.45   29.88    0.92   28.90    1.18

1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09

 

[snowman19]

Deep -OLR between 170E and 120W indicates El Niño standing wave convection in the central Pacific, convection is way more intense than normal, this also shows upper level divergence in that area, while the +OLR over Indonesia, indicates upper level convergence and suppression/subsidence. This is all consistent with a flip of the Walker circulation and very strong El Niño coupling (ocean-atmosphere); Bjerknes feedback

[snowman19]

@Gawx Here comes the +AAM surge

[GaWx]

 On July 4th, the DMI mean Arctic temp finally reached and exceeded 0C with it at +.01C. That sets a new record latest 1st above freezing as it replaces the old record latest of June 20th, which had been set in 2013.

[bluewave]

On 6/29/2026 at 10:15 AM, bluewave said:

Based on how consistent the CFS has been, expect the Euro to increase to the +3.5 to +4 traditional ONI range also on its release coming for July 5th.

This makes sense given the all -time record SST warmth we are currently experiencing so early on.

Continuing WWBs will allow this event to keep intensifying at a record rate. The forecasts will be more accurate as get further past the spring predictability barrier. 
 

 

 

 

The Euro ensemble spread narrowed at a little higher mean on the new July run to what looks like an around +3.8 to +3.9 on traditional ONI ensemble mean peak.

July run

June run

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Looks like there is a real chance for this month to go into the books as the hottest month on record for the CONUS. I know it's very early, but the NBM would have us near 3F above the 1991-2020 mean by the 13th, with model guidance suggesting an even hotter pattern developing around that time. Will be interesting to watch. The current record dates all the way back to 1936 (oldest of any month) at 76.77F, just a hair above 2012's 76.73F mean. These are 2.38F and 2.34F above the 1991-2020 mean.

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal temps and precip thru January don't look bad to me in the east. Very wet with surface temps dropping as we head into winter. I bet February would look great, but the free maps stop at January. H5 looks reasonably tasty too imho. Naysayers, have at it. Lol

Link to a  free parameters. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal temps and precip thru January don't look bad to me in the east. Very wet with surface temps dropping as we head into winter. I bet February would look great, but the free maps stop at January. H5 looks reasonably tasty too imho. Naysayers, have at it. Lol

Link to a  free parameters. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North:

 

Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North:

 

Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:

Couldn't agree more. It tells me that the other seasonal models aren't far off with their progs of a winter offering legit chances for snow and cold, obviously interspersed with AN periods that will push the mean to only a little AN. Of course, without seeing the monthly maps, there's a but of speculation on my part.