2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I understand that...most winter seasonal considerations don't. I only do because it's a large part of the snowfall season around here...well, historically, anyway...not so much this decade.

March has seen the most extreme decadal shift to warmer for any month during the 2020s vs the 2010s. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March has seen the most extreme decadal shifts to warmer for any month during the 2020s vs the 2010s. 

 

 

Yes, makes sense. I think some of that is just natural variation, but it is undoubtedly augmented by CC eroding the the bookends of the cold season. I'm sure it's not happening as fast as could be inferred by the contrast between those two decades, though...my money is on a better decade for the month of March during the 2030's relative to the 2020s.

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, makes sense. I think some of that is just natural variation, but it is undoubtedly augmented by CC erdoing the the bookends of the cold season.

We saw something similar with December starting in 2011 following the colder 2000-2010 period. 
 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Even December 2001 was near record warm, so the cold period was really 2002-2010.

Heck, you could even make the argument the cold period for December ended in 1989. Decembers from 1990 forward average 4 degrees warmer than the Decembers from 1960-1989 here at PHL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even December 2001 was near record warm, so the cold period was really 2002-2010.

Heck, you could even make the argument the cold period for December ended in 1989. Decembers from 1990 forward average 4 degrees warmer than the Decembers from 1960-1989 here at PHL.

December 1995, 2009 and 2013 were pretty cold, but by and large, you are correct. December 2005, 2007 and 2008 were normalish...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even December 2001 was near record warm, so the cold period was really 2002-2010.

Heck, you could even make the argument the cold period for December ended in 1989. Decembers from 1990 forward average 4 degrees warmer than the Decembers from 1960-1989 here at PHL.

December 2000 was cold and snowy in NYC. The real outlier years for lack of snow and warmth were 2001 and 2006.  The December 11 year snowfall average from 2000-2010 was 8.9” in NYC which was the best since the 1940s. 

December 1989 was a whole different story for extreme cold. It was more like a typical LIA winter than anything we have ever seen in modern times. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Coldest Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1917	25.0	0
-	1876	25.0	0
2	1989	25.9	0
3	1880	26.4	0
4	1872	26.7	0
5	1926	28.9	0
6	1871	29.0	0
7	1958	29.3	0
8	1955	29.7	0
-	1910	29.7	0
-	1886	29.7	0
9	1976	29.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Coldest Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1989	7.5	0
2	1917	12.2	0
3	1963	12.9	0
4	1958	13.0	0
5	1970	14.3	0
6	1980	15.0	0
7	1910	15.9	0
8	1904	16.0	0
9	1933	16.2	0
10	1976	16.3	0

[MarcmmKU]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have already said I think it may be colder than 2015-2016, just not cold.

Do you have any early thoughts about December? Especially for elevated interior new england? I'd be happy if it's better than the washout disaster ski month that december 2015 was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Do you have any early thoughts about December? Especially for elevated interior new england? I'd be happy if it's better than the washout disaster ski month that december 2015 was.

I expect something similar temp wise, but snowfall in the higher terrain of northern New England is still a bit of a wild card. Not a pretty look overall for December, though.

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, makes sense. I think some of that is just natural variation, but it is undoubtedly augmented by CC eroding the the bookends of the cold season. I'm sure it's not happening as fast as could be inferred by the contrast between those two decades, though...my money is on a better decade for the month of March during the 2030's relative to the 2020s.

For anyone on the I95 the 2030s should be significantly snowier than the 2020s. Hard to do worse than rock bottom.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MarcmmKU said:

For anyone on the I95 the 2030s should be significantly snowier than the 2020s. Hard to do worse than rock bottom.

Yes, it will be better, but the question is how much better...as Chris says.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, it will be better, but the question is how much better...as Chris says.

Our seasonal snowfall since 1993-1994 around NYC Metro has shifted to all or nothing. Meaning nearly all the seasons have been well above or well below average. Very few fall in the middle anymore like they used to prior to the last 30 years.

So our decadal average snowfall has been determined which category in the all or nothing game wins out. 

Long term since the 1800s snowfall has been declining as winters and springs get warmer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our seasonal snowfall since 1993-1994 around NYC Metro has shifted to all or nothing.Meaning nearly all the seasons have been well above or well below average. Very few fall in the middle anymore like they used to prior to the last 30 years.

So our decadal average snowfall has been determined which category in the all or nothing game wins out.

Long term since the 1800s snowfall has been declining as winters and springs get warmer. 

(Saunters purposefully into oncoming traffic)

Do we have an emoji for that?

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

(Saunters purposefully into oncoming traffic)

Do we have an emoji for that?

As long as you don’t forecast an average snowfall season around NYC Metro you should do OK. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As long as you don’t forecast an average snowfall season around NYC Metro you should do OK. 

Eventually it's going to happen...sure, the return rate maybe decreasing, but it will happen.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eventually it's going to happen...sure, the return rate maybe decreasing, but it will happen.

It does happen occasionally and probably will again one of these years. But it’s a very low probability of success forecast any given year since 1993-1994. Only 4 seasons fell in this range from 1993-1994 to 2025-2026 vs 18 seasons from 1960-1961 to 1992-1993.

NYC used to be clustered much closer to the middle 19-30 range in the previous 33 year period. So it was a good bet that you would be correct more often than in recent years calling for seasonal snowfall closer to the mid range or average of the distribution. 

These days most years are skewed toward the extreme ends of well above or well below average snowfall. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 19-30”seasons bolded 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-2026	0.0	T	7.2	13.9	22.3	T	0.0	43.4
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.8	3.0	7.1	0.0	0.0	12.9
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1
2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	51.4
2008-2009	0.0	T	6.0	9.0	4.3	8.3	T	27.6
2007-2008	0.0	T	2.9	T	9.0	T	0.0	11.9
2006-2007	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6	3.8	6.0	T	12.4
2005-2006	0.0	T	9.7	2.0	26.9	1.3	0.1	40.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	3.0	15.3	15.8	6.9	0.0	41.0
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	19.8	17.3	0.7	4.8	0.0	42.6
2002-2003	T	T	11.0	4.7	26.1	3.5	4.0	49.3
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	T	3.5	T	T	T	3.5
2000-2001	T	0.0	13.4	8.3	9.5	3.8	0.0	35.0
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	T	9.5	5.2	0.4	1.2	16.3
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	2.0	4.5	1.7	4.5	0.0	12.7
1997-1998	0.0	T	T	0.5	0.0	5.0	0.0	5.5
1996-1997	0.0	0.1	T	4.4	3.8	1.7	T	10.0
1995-1996	0.0	2.9	11.5	26.1	21.2	13.2	0.7	75.6
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	0.2	11.6	T	T	11.8
1993-1994	0.0	T	6.9	12.0	26.4	8.1	0.0	53.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-1993	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	10.7	11.9	0.0	24.5
1991-1992	0.0	T	0.7	1.5	1.0	9.4	T	12.6
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	7.2	8.4	9.1	0.2	0.0	24.9
1989-1990	0.0	4.7	1.4	1.8	1.8	3.1	0.6	13.4
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1986-1987	0.0	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1985-1986	0.0	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8
1978-1979	0.0	2.2	0.5	6.6	20.1	T	T	29.4
1977-1978	0.0	0.2	0.4	20.3	23.0	6.8	T	50.7
1976-1977	0.0	T	5.1	13.0	5.8	0.6	T	24.5
1975-1976	0.0	T	2.3	5.6	5.0	4.4	T	17.3
1974-1975	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0	10.6	0.3	T	13.1
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	2.8	7.8	9.4	3.2	0.3	23.5
1972-1973	T	T	T	1.8	0.8	0.2	T	2.8
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.8	17.8	2.3	T	22.9
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.4	11.4	T	1.3	0.4	15.5
1969-1970	0.0	T	6.8	8.4	6.4	4.0	T	25.6
1968-1969	0.0	T	7.0	1.0	16.6	5.6	0.0	30.2
1967-1968	0.0	3.2	5.5	3.6	1.1	6.1	0.0	19.5
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	9.1	1.4	23.6	17.4	T	51.5
1965-1966	T	0.0	T	11.6	9.8	T	0.0	21.4
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	3.1	14.8	2.5	2.8	1.2	24.4
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.3	13.3	14.1	6.0	T	44.7
1962-1963	T	T	4.5	5.3	3.7	2.8	T	16.3
1961-1962	0.0	T	7.7	0.6	9.6	0.2	T	18.1
1960-1961	T	0.0	18.6	16.7	18.2	1.2	T	54.7

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

March has seen the most extreme decadal shift to warmer for any month during the 2020s vs the 2010s. 

 

 

Especially amazing when you consider some of the warm Marches of that era (e.g., 2012).

[Dillsburg Keith]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect something similar temp wise, but snowfall in the higher terrain of northern New England is still a bit of a wild card. Not a pretty look overall for December, though.

Dec 2015 was +13 in many spots. That's historical. Nothing comes close to that.I doubt it would be that warm, but you never know

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Dillsburg Keith said:

Dec 2015 was +13 in many spots. That's historical. Nothing comes close to that.I doubt it would be that warm, but you never know

I didn't have the data in front of me...I just meant it should be pretty warm. Maybe +6 instead of +13, sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Especially amazing when you consider some of the warm Marches of that era (e.g., 2012).

March hasn't seen the north Pacific flip that boreal winter has over the past couple of years...it keeps reverting to +WPO. Like I said before, this isn't ALL a product of CC, but I'm sure it helps.

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have already said I think it may be colder than 2015-2016, just not cold.

Honestly, 2015-16 was fine outside of December imo

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly, 2015-16 was fine outside of December imo

Not where I am...it was an utter abomination....but I realize we could have easily had much more snow. The warmth is what it is.

[LakePaste25]

Eric Webb thinks it’ll be more east based than 15-16 but not as east as 97-98 FWIW. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Eric Webb thinks it’ll be more east based than 15-16 but not as east as 97-98 FWIW. 

That sounds fair....may actually help December to avoid being quite as exotically warm given somewhat less MC competition. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Especially amazing when you consider some of the warm Marches of that era (e.g., 2012).

The CONUS finally surpassed March 2012 in 2026.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2026

 

[snowman19]

https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2072662703483584797?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

^ “The east Pacific subsurface is now a little behind 1997 at the same time in terms of temperature anomaly amplitude, and the 29 degree isotherm is not as far east. But there is a 30C isotherm this year, and the 28 degree isotherm is farther east than in 1997. Strong recent westerlies and westerlies over the next couple of weeks will continue to advance conditions. The different timings between 1997 subseasonal signals and those this year may explain some of the differences.”

[snowman19]

[roardog]

So is the anomaly drop in 1+2 on the CFS v2 for the rest of the summer really going to happen? Why would this happen? Everyone is talking about how crazy high the forecast for 3.4 is but if we think the model has a handle on things then 1+2 should be dropping soon.

[snowman19]

^ “The timing of the last downwelling wave in the loop in 1998 makes that event stronger subsurface, but not across much of the surface. The present event will also grow its own oceanic Kelvin wave response over the next few weeks, thereby probably catching up to the subsurface signal.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

So is the anomaly drop in 1+2 on the CFS v2 for the rest of the summer really going to happen? Why would this happen? Everyone is talking about how crazy high the forecast for 3.4 is but if we think the model has a handle on things then 1+2 should be dropping soon.

CANSIPS also has a completely different orientation for the Winter. It has Nino 3.4 dominant, and 1+2 cooling between now and then. I don't think these models are right, the subsurface orientation is east-based. 

[MarcmmKU]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't have the data in front of me...I just meant it should be pretty warm. Maybe +6 instead of +13, sure.

I'd consider it a godsend if its only +6 for the interior. That's very workable for anyone north of albany.