2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That's not what Euro site shows.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202611010000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202612140000

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

Yeah. I’m not sure a 912 hour control run is worth posting about and discussing. lol

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies favorable?

Maybe its right,the Siberuian HIgh is getting broke down the next several days,this causes some significant colder intrusions in East Asia when its posistive,in a negative phase you see height rises in East China through Japan,should warm up before before Thanksgiving,but not really sure its to an extreme of what Social media is calling for in Nov as being so warm

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. I’m not sure a 912 hour control run is worth posting about and discussing. lol

Agree. Think of it as the OP Euro at 912 hours lol.

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

That certainly explains it. The Control runs are 95%+ of the time garbage.

EDIT: They didn't say it was the Control run, but the "weeklies". If they're going to say it's the weeklies, they need to include weeklies Control run. Pretty disingenuous if you ask me.

[GaWx]

 I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! 
 
 On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! 
 
 On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

Amen brother, Amen!

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! 
 
 On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

Wondered into this thread and if we're talking about the AI slop map MJO posted from Facebook then lowk it isnt even a good snow pattern. It is a cold pattern but the trough axis would be too far east to do anyone any good. You'd either get suppression based on the height lines or you would get storms which bomb out over the Atlantic ocean. You need the ULL to be behind (west) the baroclinic boundary of the gulf stream to get cyclogenesis favorable for east coast storms. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wondered into this thread and if we're talking about the AI slop map MJO posted from Facebook then lowk it isnt even a good snow pattern. It is a cold pattern but the trough axis would be too far east to do anyone any good. You'd either get suppression based on the height lines or you would get storms which bomb out over the Atlantic ocean. You need the ULL to be behind (west) the baroclinic boundary of the gulf stream to get cyclogenesis favorable for east coast storms. 

Thanks and, indeed, that’s what we all are still talking about.
 I understand why you say it isn’t good for most, but is there a chance this would give Cape Cod a nice snowstorm?

[jaxjagman]

The SH breaking down you probably should expect a big ridge into Mongolia tho it seems to be just brief,still tho it shouldnt be that warm as being portrayed as some people are thinking into Nov

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

My focus has been on how much warmer each of the months since May have been exceeding the seasonal long range model forecasts and past developing super El Niño events.

We all know with super El Niños is that it only takes one well timed storm with just enough cold to snow to make a late season snowstorm.

1997-1998 was a weaker east based event featuring no MC forcing. We had a very active East Coast storm track. Many lows hugged the East Coast. Several lows also tracked out near the Benchmark.

But the very powerful EPAC vortex and STJ never really allowed high pressure to become established long enough over the Northeast. So places like NYC Metro saw many rainstorms and very little snow through DJF.

It was actually March which delivered the best snow of the season. But March into even early April during the 1990s was much colder and snowier than the 2020s.  March snowfall through the first 6 years of the 2020s is at record lows for any 6 year period on record.

So in order to out some snow points on the board around NYC Metro, we would want to do it before we get into March which has become so much warmer this decade. 

Let’s see what happens. But we would need to get an 

Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.

45+ days for November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not exactly sure we see much if any effects from the Strat split. In fact if the PNA tries to get slightly negative like some guidance shows by mid Novie, the east could get quite mild. 
 

Any lag would be perhaps later November to start, but all the guidance into December continues to show a classic strong Nino look overwhelming any Strat coupling. We shall see, but I’m not hopeful on anything more than a cool spell here or there.

That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A SSW in Jan and esp Feb would definitely have a better chance of changing the pattern vs anything now. I know weenies want their hopes up for this one, but I would look to later in the season.

 

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even if we see what would typically be favorable indices like +PNA and -AO the super charged pack jet is flooding NA with mild pacific air. That’s exactly what happened in 97 and a big reason why you want as much elevation as possible despite a potentially favorable storm track.


.

Agree, here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

45+ days for November.

October is 45-60 days. November is 35-45 days, depending when in the month it happens. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. There may be an increased chance at an overall significant DJF averaged -AO after a Nov SSW during El Niño. I found only 4 Nino Novs with a SSW (>15 dip of 10 hPa/60N winds to <10):

1968: dropped ~37 to ~-8 on ~Nov 27th; DJF AO -2.3 (3rd lowest of all winters since 1950)

1976: dropped ~26 to ~+4 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -2.6 (2nd lowest of all winters since 1950)

1979: dropped ~24 to ~+6 on ~Nov 23rd; DJF AO -0.6 (31st lowest of all winters since 1950)

2009: dropped ~17 to ~+6 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -3.4 (lowest of all winters since 1950)

 So, avg DJF AO for these 4 winters was way down at -2.2
——————

2. At least one major SSW followed during each of these 4 winters.

To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB...probably to an extremely neg AO season like those years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is 45-60 days. November is 30-45 days, depending when in the month it happens. 

Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks and, indeed, that’s what we all are still talking about.
 I understand why you say it isn’t good for most, but is there a chance this would give Cape Cod a nice snowstorm?

I'm not entirely sure, but it just gave me similar vibes to the 2023 "Christmas snowstorm" where yes there was a trough in the east, but if the axis of the trough is offshore than that means you get nothing but cold. Additionally, notice the depth of that trough and the NAO/AO domain. It's all wrong to get a major snowstorm as the whole upper 500mb pattern is displaced hundreds of miles east of where it would need to be. You also generally don't want such a deep trough as it means the pattern will likely destroy itself after that one shot at snow due to atmospheric transport of warm air to the poles by such an intense system. If you're interested in learning a bit more here's my current Climatology research project.

 

Climatology Proposal AMWX.pdf

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies favorable?

He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm not entirely sure, but it just gave me similar vibes to the 2023 "Christmas snowstorm" where yes there was a trough in the east, but if the axis of the trough is offshore than that means you get nothing but cold. Additionally, notice the depth of that trough and the NAO/AO domain. It's all wrong to get a major snowstorm as the whole upper 500mb pattern is displaced hundreds of miles east of where it would need to be. You also generally don't want such a deep trough as it means the pattern will likely destroy itself after that one shot at snow due to atmospheric transport of warm air to the poles by such an intense system. If you're interested in learning a bit more here's my current Climatology research project.

Climatology Proposal AMWX.docx 1.59 MB · 1 download

We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?

Nov 30/Dec 1 +35 days

Dec 15 +30 days

Dec 31/Jan 1 +25-30 days

Jan 15 +25 days

Jan 30/Feb 1 +20-25 days

Feb 14 +20 days

Feb 28/Mar 1 +15-20 days

Beyond Mar 15 +15 days

That's only for a warm Stratosphere. Cold Stratosphere is +0days all the way across. Like a tornado squaring up the upper levels and ground layer. 

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.

A shitty pattern for March snow in the 2020s does not mean nyc can't see snow in March these days. Really way too much stretching as always by bluewave. Ive had shitty Marches in the 2020s too outside 2023. I also saw 3.5" on Apr 17, 2020, 0.7" on May 11, 2020, 4.5" on Apr 20, 2021, 2" on Apr 18, 2022. Every winters pattern is different. Bluewave knows meteorology well but his "window" will always be smaller than everyone elses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

A shitty pattern for March snow in the 2020s does not mean nyc can't see snow in March these days. Really way too much stretching as always by bluewave. Ive had shitty Marches in the 2020s too outside 2023. I also saw 3.5" on Apr 17, 2020, 0.7" on May 11, 2020, 4.5" on Apr 20, 2021, 2" on Apr 18, 2022. Every winters pattern is different. Bluewave knows meteorology well but his "window" will always be smaller than everyone elses.

Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/31/2026 at 11:13 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd prefer to have a la nina next winter--and I really dislike ninas because I live in the Mid-atlantic meaning I'm too far north for sliders AND too far west for Miller Bs. BUT...long game...if we can get la nina next year, it can do the stupid double dip thing in 28-29, then it can peter out and we can hope for a nino with a solar minimum! Who says no? 

La ninas after el ninos are the best summers and winters. Hot dry summer followed by a snowy winter.

 

On 10/31/2026 at 11:08 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Not to nitpick but the ice storm was Jan 1998. 

But yes. Nov-Jan 1997-98 was fine here for a strong Nino. Plenty of snowfalls. February was the disaster no-show. March saw a winter comeback of sorts but most of it stayed west of me.

I think this area did well too.

 

On 10/31/2026 at 11:00 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I actually wouldn't mind something like 1877-78 here at all. I mean, id NEVER wish for it outright, but saddled with a super nino, its not a bad outcome in the Great Lakes region (further northwest into MN and Southern Canada a different story). 

With records somewhat limited, im going strictly off Detroit data, but a reasonable amount of extrapolation for nearby areas can be done. After a bit of snow and cold around Thanksgiving, December torched, then much colder and snowier weather hit in January and February, including a huge snowstorm. It was still a bit milder than average, but in prime climo months it wasnt prohibitive at all in getting solid winter weather here. The torch returned in March and April. 

It certainly made for a much shorter winter than we are used to, but if im forced to have a limited winter, why not get the best weather in the prime time instead of november, march and april. Also, a scenario like that isnt at all unrealistic in recent times, as Jan/Feb, especially Jan, have seen almost no warming at all, unlike Dec and Mar. 

I am highly suspect of weather records from the 1800s.

 

On 10/31/2026 at 3:00 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Snow flies in the Great Lakes all the time. Its not uncommon to have snow fall daily for weeks straight in Great Lakes cities. Detroit, a city in the Great Lakes but not in the snowbelt, averages 37 days annually with measurable snow and when you add in the dozens of traces a typical season sees about 70-80 days where snow is observed from first flakes to last. You can imagine the averages IN the snow belts (Marquette averages 93 days with measurable snow, not even counting traces). These assertions that it wont snow or won't snow til February are ridiculous. I thought id seen it all when last winter people were ignoring frozen landscapes and ongoing blizzards in their backyards to discuss warmth out west (a region that never previously garnered interest), but we are definitely going to be in for some freaky stuff this winter. No snow in Marquette! Flirting with 90 in Jan in nyc! Can't wait to see what's next.

Lake effect gets to here in the Poconos too.

 

On 10/31/2026 at 3:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here  despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.

This is exactly what I mean and why I bring up 2001 as another analog.

 

On 10/31/2026 at 8:44 PM, LakePaste25 said:

Bank on it. If you look at @EasternLI’s H5 maps from 1877-78 (the extreme east based El Niño event) it’s basically a persistent -TNH from Nov-March. 

I am highly suspicious of any data from before the satellite era.

 

On 10/31/2026 at 9:12 PM, forkyfork said:

You look like a mushroom cloud lol.

 

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

During the end-Permian extinction about 252 million years ago, a supercontinent known as Pangaeaexperienced extreme climate disruptions driven by a 10-year mega El Niño episode. [1, 2]

 

Key Details from Research

• Duration: Unlike modern El Niño events that typically last about a year, the warmest phases of this ancient event lasted up to 10 years continuously. [1, 2]

• The Panthalassic Ocean: This multi-year event originated in the vast Panthalassic Ocean (the super-ocean surrounding Pangaea), which was much larger than today's Pacific Ocean and absorbed immense amounts of heat. [1]

• Volcanic Forcing & CO2: Massive volcanic eruptions from the Siberian Traps doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) from roughly 410 to 860 ppm, collapsing ocean circulation and flattening temperature gradients across the super-ocean. [1]

• Mass Extinction Impact: The decade-long locking of severe drought, extreme heat, and raging wildfires devastated terrestrial forests, accelerated a global feedback loop, and contributed to the greatest mass extinction event in Earth's history. [1, 2, 3]

I still think the Cretaceous event was far worse. That could have destroyed the entire planet an asteroid from space. It happened much more quickly too.

Could you ever even imagine how terrified the dinosaurs were as their world came to such a catastrophic and sudden end?

That was when the planet was at its most biodiverse that is the ideal climate.

 

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

My focus has been on how much warmer each of the months since May have been exceeding the seasonal long range model forecasts and past developing super El Niño events.

We all know with super El Niños is that it only takes one well timed storm with just enough cold to snow to make a late season snowstorm.

1997-1998 was a weaker east based event featuring no MC forcing. We had a very active East Coast storm track. Many lows hugged the East Coast. Several lows also tracked out near the Benchmark.

But the very powerful EPAC vortex and STJ never really allowed high pressure to become established long enough over the Northeast. So places like NYC Metro saw many rainstorms and very little snow through DJF.

It was actually March which delivered the best snow of the season. But March into even early April during the 1990s was much colder and snowier than the 2020s.  March snowfall through the first 6 years of the 2020s is at record lows for any 6 year period on record.

So in order to out some snow points on the board around NYC Metro, we would want to do it before we get into March which has become so much warmer this decade. 

Let’s see what happens. But we would need to get an improvement in the lack of cold high pressure in the Northeast vs 1997-1998 to see better snowfall results. 
 

 

Chris that was a fluke localized event in late March 1998 no one besides Central Park saw much snow and it melted as soon as it fell. Dont expect that to happen again and it wasnt in the same ballpark as February 1983 or January 2016.

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is only the 4th November with a major SSW event. So our sample size is very small. But all 3 previous events were associated with the general November 500mb North American pattern persisting and gaining amplitude through DJF.

This was the case in 2025-2026, 1968-1969, and 1952-1953.  Should this pattern repeat again in 2026-2027, then this very warm November El Niño pattern will become more amplified during DJF.

It would be interesting to find the specific mechanism associated with the early SSW which lead to the November pattern persisting and amplifying through the entire winter in those years.

Since it’s very rare for the November pattern to persist through DJF most years. A few seasonal forecasts last year basically repeated the November 2025 500mb pattern for DJF and it worked out for them.
 

 

19 November 1952

28 November 1968

28 November 2025
 

We also had an SSW last year in November

 That can't be a coincidence Chris. 

 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Anthony, for posting that.

 I don’t disagree with this post done by Luzerne County. What I mean by that is IF there were to happen to be an actual H5 similar to that, it could favor a snowstorm then. But, and this is very important: this is as it says just the control run for EW hour 912 (0Z on 12/9/26) rather than the EW mean for hour 912. So, this is like an op Euro at hour 912, which of course has no forecasting skill and will change notably from run to run the vast majority of the time. For that matter, I’d say this about hour 312 or even earlier of the op Euro or op anything. I know you know this, but you may not realize this is just the near worthless way out in the extended control run. They clearly want clicks and thus was a bad post by Luzerne County imho.

 A more informative post by Luzerne County, even though it is still way way out there, would have shown the EW means for the week covering that period, Dec 7-13:

H5:

2m temps:

 

Precip:

Not the worst pattern by any means but far from great.

@mitchnick

I wouldn't take Luzerne County very seriously they are known for their drunk drivers. 

 

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.

Lol he's one County west of me. Luzerne County is known for its drunk drivers I never go there. 

 

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A shitty pattern for March snow in the 2020s does not mean nyc can't see snow in March these days. Really way too much stretching as always by bluewave. Ive had shitty Marches in the 2020s too outside 2023. I also saw 3.5" on Apr 17, 2020, 0.7" on May 11, 2020, 4.5" on Apr 20, 2021, 2" on Apr 18, 2022. Every winters pattern is different. Bluewave knows meteorology well but his "window" will always be smaller than everyone elses.

A few inches is possible in March but that's it.

 

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.

Yes March is no longer a snow month for NYC the last time they had a double digit snowfall there in March was in 1993. UHI also has something to do with it.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Not like it would be into winter,but still rather impressive this time of year ,least since the late 50's,but that still dont mean it will get that cold the next few weeks

[NC_hailstorm]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Space-weather parameters were employed as the primary triggering factors.

Salute,excellent job here.

[jaxjagman]

The graph came from PolarWX,its free to use

 

https://www.polarwx.com/