2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Jesus, Chris....we get it. There's no hope.

Winter cancel ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Only if you honestly want it warm it is.

 

45 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Huh? Why does something need to be more impressive than something else? It's all impressive. I'm just not all that surprised by that. That's what super el nino does. 

I love a lot of his data, but the instinct to compulsively extinguish any potential hope for winter is uncanny....it's like Robo Cop or Terminator...whereas you don't even have to explicitly express optimism, but if his sensors flag data he perceives as something that could theoretically engender even a modicum of hope, he pounces.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-

That's crazy 

[GaWx]

Cosgrove for NE US: after a mild DJ is going for frigid Feb and cold Mar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Cosgrove for NE US: after a mild DJ is going for frigid Feb and cold Mar.

March could snap back...

[soadforecasterx]

Looks like the biggest one yet. Only right to have one last major push. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

March could snap back...

Agreed, maintaining cold anamolies for two months will be extremely difficult. Especially based on the performance of March recently.


.

[stadiumwave]

Great thread on SSW research  & I screenshot Paul's reply in case someone misses it. Found interesting. He links a paper.

https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115980492876984698?a=SxXaM4VN5NxdefH8xsg&s=19

 

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed, maintaining cold anamolies for two months will be extremely difficult. Especially based on the performance of March recently.


.

Past performance, doesn’t guarantee anything. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-

Hate to tell you ... his/her doing so, mm isn't just a about a bias to see thru a CC lens ( assuming that's the gripe?)

He may do that - truth be told ...don't know who we're really talking about haha. Just caught my eye   Seriously, the poster may have that bias, but were right to have brought up that empirically true and important comparison. 

It lacks tact.  Yup.  During the d-drip of cryo-dystopia that's finally coursing through the veins of the weather-related psychotropic addict ...that's definitely going to come off as a NARCANian insult.    LOL

However, the truth of his/her aspect is of more importance when taking the longer view ... Probably even saying 'ethical' view is apropos.  I sense some times we're preoccupied in social media, for seeking the possibility for big entertaining events, and not really thinking enough about what's going on behind the curtains. - just don't interrupt the show? 

I don't mean say anyone's immoral but, I'm just taking a stab at denialism straw-man there.  The empirical data, and the fucking physical changes being existentially observed around the planet don't allow sanity and denial to exist in the same realm, any longer.  But I digress.

 

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hate to tell you ... his/her doing so, mm isn't just a about a bias to see thru a CC lens ( assuming that's the gripe?)

He may do that - truth be told ...don't know who we're really talking about haha. Just caught my eye   Seriously, the poster may have that bias, but were right to have brought up that empirically true and important comparison. 

It lacks tact.  Yup.  During the d-drip of cryo-dystopia that's finally coursing through the veins of the weather-related psychotropic addict ...that's definitely going to come off as a NARCANian insult.    LOL

However, the truth of his/her aspect is of more importance when taking the longer view ... Probably even saying 'ethical' view is apropos.  I sense some times we're preoccupied in social media, for seeking the possibility for big entertaining events, and not really thinking enough about what's going on behind the curtains. - just don't interrupt the show? 

I don't mean say anyone's immoral but, I'm just taking a stab at denialism straw-man there.  The empirical data, and the fucking physical changes being existentially observed around the planet don't allow sanity and denial to exist in the same realm, any longer.  But I digress.

 

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf.  I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be.

I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"...

"Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

[40/70 Benchmark]

Why celebrate your kid's 1st grade graduation, or take pride in dropping 30lbs....the rate of warming in the arctic is more impressive. I mean, if someone is in fact using a single storm or arctic outbreak as evidence against CC, then by all means....start the firing squad, but simply enjoying it for what it is? The fact that CC is in fact real warrants that we savor it even more TBH.

[Winter Wizard]

I've never heard of these guys, nor do I fully understand their methodology, but they nailed the SSW to the day back in August:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2090562681321246959?a=Y2KkwpeTt0T4RBobgOE&s=20

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Great thread on SSW research  & I screenshot Paul's reply in case someone misses it. Found interesting. He links a paper.

https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115980492876984698?a=SxXaM4VN5NxdefH8xsg&s=19

 

It changed in Sept from E (white) to W (gray) at 70 hPa and should by now already be well within the gray (say likely +5+) per this (I’m hoping this updates soon to confirm this):

 

Edit: confirmed as it went from -10 in Aug to +3 in Sept. at 70 hPa:

https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

Oct should be out in early Nov and will likely be higher than +3.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It changed in Sept from E (white) to W (gray) at 70 hPa and should by now already be well within the gray (say likely +5+) per this (I’m hoping this updates soon to confirm this):

Maybe it lingered just long enough at 70mb to help trigger this...who knows....

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it lingered just long enough at 70mb to help trigger this...who knows....

 I understand that. But why did Paul Roundy, whom many of us including myself greatly respect, today post that the 70 hPa signal is still E when it already switched to W (~+3) in Sept per the first source below? Does he use a source that has different values from these two?

https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

 The above link had it already at ~+3 in Sept. at 70 hPa

and then this has it ~+8 at 70 hPa as of 10/28/26:

——————————

Paul Roundy
@PaulRoundy1
Message Present 70 hPa QBO signal is still easterly. It will likely be changing over the next few
months.

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-

The main reason...he has said several times NYC would never get a 50" winter or KU again without a VEI 7 or 8 volcano happening.  He was doing the whole oh look here thing with keys trying to draw attention away from the blizzard and his terrible blown call.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf.  I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be.

I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"...

"Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

Just curious ...what did you actually get in that Feb event up your way?

Over here - which I consider the western limb of the same sort of "Met district" - we got kind of left out... It was pedestrian here - somewhere around 10" I wanna say. 

Which is relativistic, haha.  I mean, 10" in 1985 would have been a ER visit for a non-terminating orgasm 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I understand that. But why did Paul Roundy, whom many of us including myself greatly respect, today post that the 70 hPa signal is still E when it already switched to W (~+3) in Sept per the first source below? Does he use a source that has different values from these two?

https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

 The above link had it already at ~+3 in Sept. at 70 hPa

and then this has it ~+8 at 70 hPa as of 10/28/26:

——————————

Paul Roundy
@PaulRoundy1
Message Present 70 hPa QBO signal is still easterly. It will likely be changing over the next few
months.

 

No one is infallible...I'm disregarding. Who knows, maybe he caught a buzz and was feeling gitty....dude is human,

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just curious ...what did you actually get in that Feb event up your way?

Over here - which I consider the western limb of the same sort of "Met district" - we got kind of left out... It was pedestrian here - somewhere around 10" I wanna say. 

Which is relativistic, haha.  I mean, 10" in 1985 would have been a ER visit for a non-terminating orgasm 

I got like 10"...I went to sleep very early on because I knew it wasn't my storm...just like in the Jan 2022 event. The lead-up is exhausting, so if I don't think it will produce to a level commensurate to hope/expectations, then I check out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The main reason...he has said several times NYC would never get a 50" winter or KU again without a VEI 7 or 8 volcano happening.  He was doing the whole oh look here thing with keys trying to draw attention away from the blizzard and his terrible blown call.

Chris only does calls out to like 3 weeks, which is is very skilled at...but he does tend to have CC autism, just as we do with respect to snow. It is a "spectrum", you know.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Here's the composite outcome for an AO-/EPO- pattern for the November 15-December 15 period:

Nevertheless, there is an unpleasant warmer cluster:

If North America is flooded with Pacific Air courtesy of the ongoing strong El Niño and/or the EPO-/AO- fails to develop, warmer outcomes would be on the table. One clue might be how much warmth is in Canada 5-10 days before the forecast period. If Canada is largely covered by warm anomalies, particularly within five days of the development of the EPO-/AO- pattern, that has often been a precursor to the warmer cluster.

[SnowGoose69]

42 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The main reason...he has said several times NYC would never get a 50" winter or KU again without a VEI 7 or 8 volcano happening.  He was doing the whole oh look here thing with keys trying to draw attention away from the blizzard and his terrible blown call.

The benchmark track though has truly been absent now for years.  Its much like the January 87 track has been gone now for seemingly 30 years or so.  We rarely if ever see that coastal runner type deal anymore since we went to the +PDO dominant phase around 95.  I think its harder long term to lose the BM track as you have the Gulf Stream playing a role but many have pointed out the last 8 years or so how insanely consistent the inland or way suppressed track has been.