2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Chinook]

crazy global temp anomaly

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true. 

[GaWx]

 The Arctic N of 80N 2m anomalies have been back to their typical autumn warmer than 1958-2002 averages after a short dip to just BN at the end of Sept:

[EasternLI]

00Z EPS now has all members, 100% with reversals. GEFS still sitting around 70% AI ENS climbing after not being interested, close to 80% now, but I don't know how well that does with events like this either.

 

[bluewave]

The lag interval for surface effects from minor and major stratospheric warming events can be quite variable. We had a minor warming event in late December 1997 into early January 1998 and a strong Greenland blocking pattern emerged in January. But since the Pacific vortex was displaced so far to the east, it resulted in a very warm pattern over North America. 

 

[MJO812]

Latest Euro has more weakening of the PV than past runs.

[yoda]

@40/70 Benchmark CWG call for DC region for winter 

8 hours ago, bncho said:

i paid 8 dollars for this shit

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not seeing the complete suite off the Euro cluster ... but, the GEFs I've always used do not indicate an SSW...

There's some wild confusion going on, as some folks among this social media, and outside of it, are seemingly not even aware of their confusion: appears just just wrongly attributable in what is going on....

First of all, warm thermal events pop off in the PV/stratospheric altitudes, all the time.  Seldom are they down propagators after the fact, a key behavioral component in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming defined phenomenon.

The modeling presentation I've found at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/   (NCEP/GFS Analyses and Forecasts)  provides a means ( though could be improved ) to deduce if in situ outlooks for warming at those respective levels ( y-axis of the above annotated graph) may be destined to downwell.  Note the unit conversion from MB to hPa (millibars to hectopascals) a conversion they do to be consistent with SI units.

When you see an warm sudden introduction in the 1 thru 10 hPa, then look at the 30 --> 50 --> 70 ...etc, out in time. If the pretty red blob of the polar stereographic thermal anomaly layout are then subsequently introducing the warmth, that is at least a 'reasonable' implication of an actual downward welling behavior.  

If you don't see that... it's probably an event that is like this...

Ie., no propagation.   Having defined/illustrated these different types of stratospheric warm event basics ... just as a knowledge aspect, there does not appear to be a temperature extreme/amplitude dependency in whether an event is a propagator or not.  As this image above demos, I carefully choose; it shows multiple irrelevant perturbed warm introductions. However, the last in the series there, very late in the spring of 2007, vaguely suggests there was a downward mass propagation.  The key take away is the down ward movement of the temperature (warming) anomaly.  We are thus using the temperature fields to infer wave mechanics taking place that will eventually become important in situ to the stratosphere-troposphere coupled model.  There may be amplitude requirement the physical wave mechanics - intuitively that's no brainer.   A weak downward temperature signal ... prooooobably is indicative of a weak collapsing PV ..which then weakly correlates to AO modality.  

Otherwise, no propagation, no crucially defined SSW event.   

Now, if we want to call any warm protuberance that introduces itself at all ... like those spanning that winter of 2007, as a SSW?  we do so at risk of confusing and conflating the two disparate systemically effective events - like what sounds like is happening now...  

I did go over the modeled GFS hPa levels wrt time ... it appears around 240 hours, there is a moderate 10 hPa warm emergence, but subsequent time intervals at successively lower levels do not present any propagating behavior.  That can change - sure.  We're not excluding the possibility that an actual SSW will happen this year in the unusually early November window.   Just not seeing it right now.

Having said all that... look at the 70 and 100 hPas...  There's something else happening, already, ...partly I suspect is contributing to some folks misconception of what's going on.  There is a coherent warm anomaly that is all but statically occurring in those lower stratospheric levels... That is is not SSW, but... I believe it is related to CC invading the fixed hPa aspect of the monitoring system...  speculation -

 

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

remember in april when you hive members were trying to will this event under +2 because you knew it would be really bad for cold and snow this winter? now it's +3 and you're willing some kind of magic block that will defeat the pacific vortex

 

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not seeing the complete suite off the Euro cluster ... but, the GEFs I've always used do not indicate an SSW...

There's some wild confusion going on, as some folks among this social media, and outside of it, are seemingly not even aware of their confusion: appears just just wrongly attributable in what is going on....

First of all, warm thermal events pop off in the PV/stratospheric altitudes, all the time.  Seldom are they down propagators after the fact, a key behavioral component in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming defined phenomenon.

The modeling presentation I've found at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/   (NCEP/GFS Analyses and Forecasts)  provides a means ( though could be improved ) to deduce if in situ outlooks for warming at those respective levels ( y-axis of the above annotated graph) may be destined to downwell.  Note the unit conversion from MB to hPa (millibars to hectopascals) a conversion they do to be consistent with SI units.

When you see an warm sudden introduction in the 1 thru 10 hPa, then look at the 30 --> 50 --> 70 ...etc, out in time. If the pretty red blob of the polar stereographic thermal anomaly layout are then subsequently introducing the warmth, that is at least a 'reasonable' implication of an actual downward welling behavior.  

If you don't see that... it's probably an event that is like this...

Ie., no propagation.   Having defined/illustrated these different types of stratospheric warm event basics ... just as a knowledge aspect, there does not appear to be a temperature extreme/amplitude dependency in whether an event is a propagator or not.  As this image above demos, I carefully choose; it shows multiple irrelevant perturbed warm introductions. However, the last in the series there, very late in the spring of 2007, vaguely suggests there was a downward mass propagation.  The key take away is the down ward movement of the temperature (warming) anomaly.  We are thus using the temperature fields to infer wave mechanics taking place that will eventually become important in situ to the stratosphere-troposphere coupled model.  There may be amplitude requirement the physical wave mechanics - intuitively that's no brainer.   A weak downward temperature signal ... prooooobably is indicative of a weak collapsing PV ..which then weakly correlates to AO modality.  

Otherwise, no propagation, no crucially defined SSW event.   

Now, if we want to call any warm protuberance that introduces itself at all ... like those spanning that winter of 2007, as a SSW?  we do so at risk of confusing and conflating the two disparate systemically effective events - like what sounds like is happening now...  

I did go over the modeled GFS hPa levels wrt time ... it appears around 240 hours, there is a moderate 10 hPa warm emergence, but subsequent time intervals at successively lower levels do not present any propagating behavior.  That can change - sure.  We're not excluding the possibility that an actual SSW will happen this year in the unusually early November window.   Just not seeing it right now.

Having said all that... look at the 70 and 100 hPas...  There's something else happening, already, ...partly I suspect is contributing to some folks misconception of what's going on.  There is a coherent warm anomaly that is all but statically occurring in those lower stratospheric levels... That is is not SSW, but... I believe it is related to CC invading the fixed hPa aspect of the monitoring system...  speculation -

 

John,

 As long as the 10 hPa/60N mean zonal winds reverse (go to <0) in Nov or winter, that event is defined as a major SSW regardless of the degree of actual strat. warming and degree of propagation down into the troposphere, if at all. If it doesn’t drop to <0, the strat warming event is called a minor SSW.

 Despite the reversal or at least near reversal being progged on models, the degree of actual warming at 10 hPa being progged has been tame compared to many other SSWs. So, that could very well be a factor to consider as regards its potential to later significantly disrupt well down into the troposphere. I wonder if that reduces that potential. Opinions?

Check out this GFS prog, for example. The change in the strat. wind pattern at 60N looks quite impressive, but the degree of strat. warming up there doesn’t as there usually are widespread red colors, including dark red, that abruptly move into the area located within 60-90N but in this case the darker reds largely remain in and near Siberia:

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, Chinook said:

crazy global temp anomaly

Been seeing this a lot in the last decade ...but since 2023, even more, where these "missing man formation" curve peal-aways take place. This tropical curve is exceptionally deviated from the perceived canonical/historic behavior at this point... It seems it should almost have to turn and start going down but the damage is already done.  Not sure if this apart/aspect of El Nino, per se; other "super" Nino years are presented but did not to demo this type of aberrant tropical separation from the pact.   Interesting

[FPizz]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true. 

SOI has been + for 5 straight days now I saw

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

John,

 As long as the 10 hPa/60N mean zonal winds reverse (go to <0) in Nov or winter, that event is defined as a major SSW regardless of the degree of actual strat. warming and degree of propagation down into the troposphere, if at all. If it doesn’t drop to <0, the strat warming event is called a minor SSW.

 Despite the reversal or at least near reversal being progged on models, the degree of actual warming at 10 hPa being progged has been rather tame compared to many other SSWs. So, that could very well be a factor to consider as regards its potential to later significantly disrupt well down into the troposphere. I wonder if that reduces that potential. Opinions?

Check out this GFS prog, for example. The strat. winds, themselves, look impressive, but the degree of strat. warming doesn’t:

Yeah, that's why I'm careful to describe the downward propagating, crucially ...highly indicative using the temperature monitoring...

I also am just commenting that perhaps delineating whether that specific behavior is occurring or not, is crucial.   Because the correlation to the AO is very tightly correlated to that phenomenon.    That site, and the information, at both ends that I provided, coherently show that.   If you take those down welling examples, and compare them to historical AO records, you'll see the 20 to 30 day lag rather obviously.  If you do the same with those warm nodes that did not apparently propagate, AO responses are variable and very less correlated. 

I'm also - again - not intending to say this November won't observe a downward inertial displacement, from 10 hPa ..thru the lower pressure coordinates and destined to affect the AO...etc... just that I'm not seeing that type of SSW totality at this time. 

The gist:  What we're getting at here is the well-studied form of stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

The current 10 hPa bloop - at least in the GFS suite I provided ...again, I have not seen the Euro and refuse to pay for it hahahaha - does not appear GFS-destined to be a coupled phenomenon.  

It's not likely to be a deterministic value on the AO and subsequent goodies ...etc... if even registerable at all, unless the coupling model takes place.   Critical distinction being ...inertial displacement at 10 hPa only describes the PV's forced horizontal position at that level, not proof that the same displacement is traveling downward... that has to happen or the coupling won't.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, that's why I'm careful to describe the downward propagating, crucially ...highly indicative using the temperature monitoring...

I also am just commenting that perhaps delineating whether that specific behavior is occurring or not, is crucial.   Because the correlation to the AO is very tightly correlated to that phenomenon.    That site, and the information, at both ends that I provided, coherently show that.   If you take those down welling examples, and compare them to historical AO records, you'll see the 20 to 30 day lag rather obviously.  If you do the same with those warm nodes that did not apparently propagate, AO responses are variable and very less correlated. 

I'm also - again - not intending to say this November won't observe a downward inertial displacement, from 10 hPa ..thru the lower pressure coordinates and destined to affect the AO...etc... just that I'm not seeing that type of SSW totality at this time. 

The gist:  What we're getting at here is the well-studied form of stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

The current 10 hPa bloop - at least in the GFS suite I provided ...again, I have not seen the Euro and refuse to pay for it hahahaha - does not appear GFS-destined to be a coupled phenomenon.  

It's not likely to be a deterministic value on the AO and subsequent goodies ...etc... if even registerable at all, unless the coupling model takes place.   Critical distinction being ...inertial displacement at 10 hPa only describes the PV's forced horizontal position at that level, not proof that the same displacement is traveling downward... that has to happen or the coupling won't.

Even if this SSW ends up not propagating downward to a significant degree and thus doesn’t lead to strong -AO/-NAO in Dec, just the fact that this very early SSW is occurring may have implications as to the chance of a subsequent major SSW (i.e., a canary in the coal mine) that actually does downwell significantly and thus leads to a strong -AO/-NAO after that as I think @40/70 Benchmarkhas talked about.