2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak.

Fwiprobablynotworth ...  this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ...  

The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiprobablynotworth ...  this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ...  

The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation.  

Yes, that is the dual forcing I have been alluding to...it's from about 130-150 degrees longitude....I think early on, the eastern node will dominate, then we will see more variability beginning beyond the ides of January, as that western node starts to constructively interfere with some other aspects at higher latitudes in addition to ENSO perhaps leaking westward a bit overall/weakening at that juncture.

[bluewave]

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.

[soadforecasterx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.

Would basin wide still be on the table?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Would basin wide still be on the table?

In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

...

...

...
 

 

 

One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. 

Speculatively:   the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ...

For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross.

It may not be overly obvious at all times...  Sometimes yes, other times no.  But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say).  Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... 

As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics.

If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people.  haha.  No but  (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.

 

[LakePaste25]

incredibly early in the season to be seeing this pattern. 

 

[forkyfork]

but the stratosphere! 

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

 

 With this record breaking and possibly even record shattering weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US after an SSW this time of year:

 

CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy

 

Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. 

Speculatively:   the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ...

For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross.

It may not be overly obvious at all times...  Sometimes yes, other times no.  But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say).  Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... 

As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics.

If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people.  haha.  No but  (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.

 

Chris has said that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 With this record breaking weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US this time of year:

CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy

 

Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

but the stratosphere! 

There is no SSW modeled from what I'm seeing anyway ...

Just pointing that out for the straw man if no one's betting.

General readers:  This exact same aspect took place over the last three consecutive latter autumns - the tropopausal heights over the N arc of the oceanic-atmospheric coupled "thermal bulge", lifted in altitude and introduced a warm anomaly between 50 and 150 hPa altitudes.  This then terminates higher into the PV near the top 10 ... 5 hPa levels registering/forcing a faux split, because there is residual warmth that does get that high. 

But, that is bottom --> up phenomenon.  SSWs are intrusions that begin above 30 hPa, and often pulse for a week before the main plume arrives -first- at the very high altitude.  Then, given time, it descends in altitude... usually taking ~ 2 weeks to make that journey...  As it lowers, it stabilizes the AO domain - this rises eights in the 500 to 200 hPa levels, a.k.a. blocking

Now... there's definitely some lop over in physical characteristic and behaviors. It's not an all or not ... Some warm intrusions may then in turn downward propagate after the fact.  Or, the bottom --> up could be in tandem with the other, making it suggestive in both direction, and difficult to parse out attribution.  By and large, a text book SSW looks like this though, which I've annotated...

 

Notable -AO correlation toward the end of January (~20 days past the onset of the total event) was extreme, and carried over into February that year. 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.

Only need a few days of a decent pattern as I know you know. I'm clinging to the +3.4 in 12/82 at BWI with 7.2" as proof it can happen, though not necessarily that it has to or will happen. Add to that December climo at BWI is terrible.

P.s. It was 70 on Christmas that year! Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris has said that.

yeah  I'm not attempting to 'take credit'  don't give a shit.   It's probably obvious to most anyway ... it was a question that popped into head back in summer actually  ha.  when it was 89 F

[LakePaste25]

One reason I am starting to lean away from a December 2015 torch is that we should see a more active southern stream in the SE US. It will be “only” mild/warm. The lack of active southern stream in 12/2015 caused the typical Canadian ridge to go much further south compared to December 2024 or December 1997. 

 

Part of this will be due to lack of MC forcing and more E Pac forcing, which will help sustain a more active southern stream in the SE. So the same E based orientation that makes it more difficult to get snow will also make it more difficult to get a record 2015 torch. 

[Keith Central PA]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Only need a few days of a decent pattern as I know you know. I'm clinging to the +3.4 in 12/82 at BWI with 7.2" as proof it can happen, though not necessarily that it has to or will happen. Add to that December climo at BWI is terrible.

P.s. It was 70 on Christmas that year! Lol

Both December 82 and 2015 had blowtorches for Christmas, which usually happens in strong nino's..If we can avoid that I guess you can call it a victory of sorts. I'm just trying to find any light of hope from this impeding disaster.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

One reason I am starting to lean away from a December 2015 torch is that we should see a more active southern stream in the SE US. It will be “only” mild/warm. The lack of active southern stream in 12/2015 caused the typical Canadian ridge to go much further south compared to December 2024 or December 1997. 

 

Part of this will be due to lack of MC forcing and more E Pac forcing, which will help sustain a more active southern stream in the SE. So the same E based orientation that makes it more difficult to get snow will also make it more difficult to get a record 2015 torch. 

Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is no SSW modeled from what I'm seeing anyway ...

Just pointing that out for the straw man if no one's betting.

General readers:  This exact same aspect took place over the last three consecutive latter autumns - the tropopausal heights over the N arc of the oceanic-atmospheric coupled "thermal bulge", lifted in altitude and introduced a warm anomaly between 50 and 150 hPa altitudes.  This then terminates higher into the PV near the top 10 ... 5 hPa levels registering/forcing a faux split, because there is residual warmth that does get that high. 

But, that is bottom --> up phenomenon.  SSWs are intrusions that begin above 30 hPa, and often pulse for a week before the main plume arrives -first- at the very high altitude.  Then, given time, it descends in altitude... usually taking ~ 2 weeks to make that journey...  As it lowers, it stabilizes the AO domain - this rises eights in the 500 to 200 hPa levels, a.k.a. blocking

Now... there's definitely some lop over in physical characteristic and behaviors. It's not an all or not ... Some warm intrusions may then in turn downward propagate after the fact.  Or, the bottom --> up could be in tandem with the other, making it suggestive in both direction, and difficult to parse out attribution.  By and large, a text book SSW looks like this though, which I've annotated...

 

Notable -AO correlation toward the end of January (~20 days past the onset of the total event) was extreme, and carried over into February that year. 

John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry, as the stat stuff is often so complicated and ambiguous.

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is no SSW modeled from what I'm seeing anyway ...

Just pointing that out for the straw man if no one's betting.

John,

 There is a record weak SPV for early Nov being modeled, which would result in anomalies of ~-20 m/s. It may not result in an actual wind reversal (<0 m/s), but, say, a +5 m/s event would still be record shattering.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.

I realize you're just talking/rhetoric here but ... there's a non-zero order probability that when the +ENSO is finally "pattern forcing" ...what emerges is shock-and-awe. 

Or not ... just sayn'

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize you're just talking/rhetoric here but ... there's a non-zero order probability that when the +ENSO is finally "pattern forcing" ...what emerges is shock-and-awe. 

Or not ... just sayn'

Yea, it probably won't be record setting....not intending to imply it's a physical implausibility. I get how anomalous this is...could also be a record deal nationally, but not in any one region.

[jconsor]

Some interesting analog years with weak strat PV/SSW in here:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114434656158224475

[MJO812]

Bam on board

[jconsor]

3 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Some interesting analog years with weak strat PV/SSW in here:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114434656158224475

The same guy (who uses statistical techniques to do long-range forecasts) has been flagging a high risk for a Nov SSW since the beginning of the summer: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2106770331985748036.  He also suggests a high risk for a SSW in Feb:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114022327008612489

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.

Yeah, for us anyway. I could still see areas in the upper Midwest that are further removed from CAD effects and coastals threatening records. I did make that distinction awhile ago. Of course places such as International Falls have very cold climates to begin with, so 50+ degrees is far more anomalous there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Some interesting analog years with weak strat PV/SSW in here:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114434656158224475

2023 and 2001....  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. 

Speculatively:   the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ...

For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross.

It may not be overly obvious at all times...  Sometimes yes, other times no.  But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say).  Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... 

As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics.

If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people.  haha.  No but  (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.

 

We can say that the pattern the last few weeks has been reversed from the same time period back in 1997.

The strongest 500 mb trough and STJ is near the Southwest rather than the Southeast leading to the flooding and severe weather more focused in the Southwest. 

This is why the CONUS and in particular the Southeast has been so much warmer this October than it was back in 1997. 

The long range seasonal models from a month ago missed the more Southwest focused heavy rainfall. 

So we’ll just have to monitor going forward to see if some elements of this early season pattern continue.

October 12th to 23rd 2026 500 mb pattern compared to 1997

 

October seasonal rainfall forecast issued in early September 

 

Verification

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

54 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

incredibly early in the season to be seeing this pattern. 

Not really. Strong few-day troughs are common in October.