2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Honga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption

I really don't know or care what he intended. It was a wag and is why I said "may have been" the reason. Lol

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I high doubt we see the full reversal, but would be interesting. 

Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total wind reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're gonna have a non winter like the west experienced last year. Probably a real wake up call for many when we're seeing multiple days of 70s in Jan/Feb and zero snow.  

DE-FENCE----CLAP-CLAP-CLAP.....DE-FENCE-CLAP-CLAP-CLAP

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

Warm November ahead 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets. 

[mitchnick]

Today’s Euro weeklies has the trough in the south getting started by week 3 and deepens it the next 2 weeks. This is the earliest the weeklies have showed the southern trough. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611230000

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

Odd.  Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000

[EasternLI]

While I do agree that a SSW is an outside outlier chance, as I have been saying. The chance is not zero as of yet. Clearly having one NOT occur is the favored outcome. As it would be an unprecedented event for the time of year. As such that will never be favored. At the same time, seeing the powerhouse Ural block and an unprecedented El Nino, maybe it's best to keep an open mind about something unprecedented. We did have the end of November action in the strat last year, which was largely dismissed by most (myself included) at the time as not being much of a factor. However it proved itself to be an important player further down the line. So it's probably wise to just keep tabs on it for now until the path forward becomes much clearer. 

 

As of the 00z 10-25 runs, the EPS achieves wind reversals on quite a few members 42%. That's not insignificant. The GEFS, after having zero interest at all originally, has started to have some lately. Now some of you might be thinking, but it looks like a torch during that period. You would be right, that is also a part of what usually happens during these types of things too. Even if it doesn't go off, there's probably ramifications either way. Worth watching imo.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season". 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season". 

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

I went through the whole dataset back to 1948 a while ago. Big anomalies started to appear at 10mb after the turn to October. 

Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

I doubt we'll have a record event. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

 
 Here are the lowest for the four years hitting record lows (since these graphs started in 1978-9) during the first 10 days of Nov:

2016-7: ~11 low (+QBO, the only one of these four years with QBO similar to 2026)

 

2009-10 (El Nino): ~11 low during Nov 1-10 only (-QBO)

 

 

2005-6: ~12 low (dropping +QBO)

 

2004-5 (El Nino): ~13 low (-QBO)

 The 0Z 10/25/26 progs are suggesting these +11 to +13 dips will likely be exceeded and quite possibly by a wide margin of 5 to 10.

*Edited to correct typos

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely. 

Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little  AN December, but not a blow torch. 

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

We are 100% on the same page. This background state is extremely hostile to major SSWEs and a sustained weak SPV….lack of a strong MJO 6, 7, 8 propagation (due to the historic El Niño), the very strong low frequency Nino forcing is totally overwhelming and muting the MJO signal, as is typical for super events, a downwelled, very strong and still strengthening +QBO, descending solar off last year’s solar max, high geomag,  +IOD…….

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

Judah Cohen getting excited

[SnowGoose69]

The real question way too early is will the La Nina of 27-28 make 88-89 and 10-11 look weak

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The real question way too early is will the La Nina of 27-28 make 88-89 and 10-11 look weak

A strong “rebound” Nina isn’t guaranteed. cold neutral is on the table. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little  AN December, but not a blow torch. 

Indeed, although Nov on the CFS has warmed, the 10 day mean Dec has cooled ~2F in the E US since 10 days ago.

10 day mean as of 10 days ago:

 

Latest 10 day mean: 2F cooler. Could this be related to the even weaker early Nov SPV when considering the 35-40 day lag Chuck mentioned?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed, although Nov on the CFS has warmed, the 10 day mean Dec has cooled ~2F in the E US since 10 days ago.

10 day mean as of 10 days ago:

 

Latest 10 day mean: 2F cooler. Could this be related to the even weaker early Nov SPV when considering the 35-40 day lag Chuck mentioned?

Heading toward the Euro weeklies/seasonal? Looks that way. Time will tell.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely. 

I think the more interesting question is whether an early SSWE usually leads to another strat event/PV disription later in the season. Especially during el nino winters. 

[snowman19]

Traditional ONI, RONI, absolute SST……

[Stormchaserchuck1]

41 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think the more interesting question is whether an early SSWE usually leads to another strat event/PV disription later in the season. Especially during el nino winters. 

Nov-March 10mb Regression with ENSO

It actually comes out to 73% chance of having above average Stratosphere vs below average in El Nino, and visa-versa

That doesn't even include 23-24, which had 4 separate SWs. 

I haven't done research on if an early in the year event correlates with later on SSWs, but they usually do happen in bunches or not at all, because it's correlated to consistencies like QBO and ENSO. Filtering those out, it would be interesting to know what the numbers are indeed! 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely. 

Does timing of an autumnal or early winter SSW have any implication on the favorability for a colder/wetter season? Is this something that we want to have happen as early and strongly as possible, or wait until later on?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little  AN December, but not a blow torch. 

I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Does timing of an autumnal or early winter SSW have any implication on the favorability for a colder/wetter season? Is this something that we want to have happen as early and strongly as possible, or wait until later on?

I think @GaWx has done some research that it is tied into cooler mid-Winter conditions, I think -AO tendency. We had one around the same time last year, and I believe he used it to forecast a cooler Dec and Jan. 

I think we want November Stratosphere warmings because they correlate with -AO 30-45 days later. 

Something not a lot of people know though is in the DJFM mean, warm Stratosphere has direct correlation with above average temps, in the Northeast, US, and cold Stratosphere - below average temps, in the mean-Winter-total 

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified

I'm not defending the Cfs2, but all the models have their share of major fails and/or persistent biases at one time or another. That said, the point of my post was that the Cfs2 was confirming your call. You don't want confirmations from modeling for your calls? Fine....Chuck the models say you suck! Lol 

You know I'm just bustin' chops.