2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like 2023-2024 to me.

Same general theme with more amplitude and warmth potential.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same general theme with more amplitude and warmth potential.
 

 

I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer.

I don't know of anyone offering resistance to the notion of a very mild December and January in the mean, so any uncertainty is surrounding February. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models are developing two upper low pressure centers in the North Pacific as we head into late October. One area of lower pressures has already been developing over the Bering Sea through the first 16 days of October. The next center is forming over California and the Baja.

My guess is that the stronger mid-latitude pattern which has been keeping the big ridge east of Japan is currently overlapping with the super El Niño forcing. Almost like a filter if you like.

So this leads to the persistent -PDO that we have been experiencing instead of a +2.00 PDO which we would normally be getting with such a strong El Niño and +PMM. 

With such an historic east based event, the trough getting pushed into the West Coast will cause the Nino ridge to persist from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes and into the East. 

October 500 mb pattern through the 16th

Forecast into late November

 

Horrific

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Do agree,you might alrady be seeing this in the extened period,but right now a phoon going into East Asia is going to cause a Upper Level Ridge to build into the Sea of Japan,then days after into the plains and NE,Emembles show this very well

It's not a bad idea ... about the time of year when the west Pac TC teleconnector becomes more significant.

I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W.  Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP...  Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree.

The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent.  This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE.  We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before!   it's really interesting, this masking aspect.   

yet, despite ... the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually.  We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS, respectively.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not a bad idea ... about the time of year when the west Pac TC teleconnector becomes more significant.

I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W.  Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP...  Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree.

The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent.  This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE.  We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before!   it's really interesting, this masking aspect.   

yet, despite ... the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually.  We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics.  

Has to be mainly attributed to daily mins...just guessing....although certainly the past couple have been cold.

[LakePaste25]

Need to get rid of that +WPO. Always bad news for Ninos, let alone any ENSO. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS.

So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?

[LakePaste25]

Like I said, we need to ditch the +WPO. Probably as we approach mid November would my guess, once the Siberian High can flex east of the Himalayas while the MJO exits the Indian Ocean. Would force a more equatorward pac jet and an organized Aleutian/GOA Low.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Need to get rid of that +WPO. Always bad news for Ninos, let alone any ENSO. 

Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?

I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.

Relying on February to produce is a bad sign for the winter. Hopefully we get lucky with an event this winter

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Relying on February to produce is a bad sign for the winter. Hopefully we get lucky with an event this winter

 

Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS.

Yup ... and I realize we've been over this aspect before.  But these signals don't turn an entire planetary system on it's head that quickly.  There's momentum stored in the other mode and takes time to move away.    

It's sort of analogous to a seasonal change ... ex, we don't observe Aug 15 --> Nov 15 on a straight 45 deg downward angular trajectory.  It goes back and forth while accumulating the lower height state over that span... in theory.  We can always count on a complete systemic rollback to July 15th on Xmas Eve!    So, as we go from a cool-->warm(vice versa) ENSO state, the atmosphere will tend to a kind of 'non-Markovian' echo of the form mode.  

It complicates matters further these days when/since previous modes became increasingly more disrupted ..heh.  However, in this case since the -PDO is significantly correlated to the -ENSO, and the PDO is really a reflection of the longer term SS wind stressing in the quasi-coupling of the air-sea environment out there (therefore, atmospheric mode-), there's decent enough confidence that we actually had an NINA hemisphere last winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... and I realize we've been over this aspect before.  But these signals don't turn an entire planetary system on it's head that quickly.  There's momentum stored in the other mode and takes time to move away.    

It's sort of analogous to a seasonal change ... ex, we don't observe Aug 15 --> Nov 15 on a straight 45 deg downward angular trajectory.  It goes back and forth while accumulating the lower height state over that span... in theory.  We can always count on a complete systemic rollback to July 15th on Xmas Eve!    So, as we go from a cool-->warm(vice versa) ENSO state, the atmosphere will tend to a kind of 'non-Markovian' echo of the form mode.  

It complicates matters further than the previous modes' are also being disruptive ..heh.  Since the -PDO is significantly correlated to the -ENSO, and the PDO is really a reflection of the longer term SS wind stressing in the quasi-coupling of the air-sea environment out there, there's decent enough confidence that we actually had an NINA hemisphere last winter. 

Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol

We’ll see if we can get a PV split to shake out in our favor. Like I have been saying the Arctic isn’t totally cooked right now, so cold air will be lurking. That’s why I’m excited for this winter, I think it has some real surprises in store. Plus from a pure weather perspective, the STJ amped storms will be interesting in their own right even if they are mainly rain.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.

Yeah...maybe.  Don't know.    Parsing out the momentum like that over years - that's harder ( at least for me ) to balance sheet that because circulation modes get seasonally mutilated by winter and summer for one.  But, the 2023 spring planetary temperature explosion phenomenon is super-climatological in nature and really appears to have taken place mutually exclusive of the ENSO cycling.    We need to bear in mind that the sea system and the atmospheric system, en masse, burst .5 C upward in all dimensions, all at once. 

That in and of itself is still not very satisfyingly explained ...though there are some compelling ideas. sure.  But anyway, that took place prior to the end of a cool ENSO, and a couple months before the onset of an ... interim warm phase that frankly I feel was some sort of "absorption event" to try and eat that heat and didn't reflect a truer Nino atmospheric circulation mode outside of the immediate tropics...maybe lower subtropical bands... but that's farmer John's supposition. 

Anyway, detonating an entire planet like that doesn't lend to stable predictions. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W.  Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP...  Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree.

The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent.  This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE.  We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before!   it's really interesting, this masking aspect.   

 Is the offshore E US strong low bringing down the cool air into the E US this entire week likely related to the very strong Nino?

 

0Z 10/12 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: no offshore storm and thus no cool air pinned in E US:

 

0Z 10/18 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: much cooler E US in reality associated with offshore strong storm working in tandem with 3 Canadian highs keeping cool dry Canadian air pinned in E US:

 

Cool air this week E US thanks to the above pattern consistent with Euro Weeklies’ significantly cooler change: (had been warm on runs from Oct 12-13 when no offshore storm)

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Is the offshore E US strong low bringing down the cool air into the E US this entire week likely related to the very strong Nino?

 

0Z 10/12 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: no offshore storm and thus no cool air pinned in E US:

 

0Z 10/18 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: much cooler E US in reality associated with offshore strong storm working in tandem with Canadian highs keeping cool dry Canadian air pinned in E US:

 

Cool air this week E US thanks to the above pattern consistent with Euro Weeklies’ significantly cooler change: (had been warm on runs from Oct 12-13 when no offshore storm)

Classic CAD. In theory it should be more likely in El Niño due to less SE ridging.  

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Is the offshore E US strong low bringing down the cool air into the E US this entire week likely related to the very strong Nino?

 

0Z 10/12 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: no offshore storm and thus no cool air pinned in E US:

...

 

0Z 10/18 GEFS forecast for 6Z 10/21: much cooler E US in reality associated with offshore strong storm working in tandem with Canadian highs keeping cool Canadian air pinned in E US:

...
 

Cool air this week E US thanks to the above pattern: (had been warm on runs from Oct 12-13 when no offshore storm)

...

Likely related ...

... for one, although the sample size is not appreciably large ( on the order of 10 or 12 spanning 200 years ), of those warm ENSO, something like 9 or 10 had these autumn hybrid like circulations.   Not meaning to say that is what's going on down there at this time, but... you know, if you're going to hybridize a gyre in that region, you wanna start with something like the theme we are in fact seeing so far ( the unusual end September coastal event that was over publicized (snark) being a fair example).  Some guidance couldn't resist and bored that thing down to almost 970 mb..  as it were ... it was just a pedestrian. But still very really and albeit asynchronous low - one which happens to fit the total idea. 

We are still in the correlation window so this weakness/tendency for another low there ... it's suggestive enough.

It's important to note however, El Ninos do not directly cause storm or no storm formation. 

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.

Yeah, I only posted the guidance for the next 15 days along with actual pattern for the month so far.

The AIFS-ENS has been doing very well with both the 500mb and storm tracks including hurricanes.

The EPS weeklies beyond 15 days and other guidance is lower skill. But they have developed an AI bias corrected version (PBC) of the EPS weeklies that they claim has better scores than the weeklies do.

I will post some forecast images from this new AI bias corrected EPS weeks 2-6 when and if they become available to the general public.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11126-x?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nature&linkId=64119704

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy and prepare for weather extremes^1,2,3. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy as far as 2 weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence models^{4,5,6,7,8,9,10}. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2–6 weeks ahead) due to compounding errors, systemic model biases and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere^{11,12,13,14,15}. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction, a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and artificial intelligence models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), probabilistic bias correction doubles the modest subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System¹⁶ and improves the skill of the operationally debiased dynamical model¹⁷ for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature and 98% of precipitation targets. 

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We’ll see if we can get a PV split to shake out in our favor. Like I have been saying the Arctic isn’t totally cooked right now, so cold air will be lurking. That’s why I’m excited for this winter, I think it has some real surprises in store. Plus from a pure weather perspective, the STJ amped storms will be interesting in their own right even if they are mainly rain.


.

SSW's may be challenged more so than climatology this season.   Hard to say ...some competing signals...

Pro: there is an apparently ( assuming so ) a modeled switch into the westerly QBO phase pretty quickly this autumn. W-QBO correlates to a easterly momentum inject into the stratospheric altitudes.  It's like warm advection currents dissipating at higher altitudes capture/drags some of that momentum then intrudes it into the PV ... and helps the wave break/ SSW phenomenon. 

Con: however, this has been a very active solar disk spring/summer/ and continues here in autumn.  These solar 'storms' break apart ozone in the high altitudes. UV loading related...  Ozone is the primary conductance in getting warm intrusions to 'flash' through the higher PV column. 

[LakePaste25]

 

[roardog]

The models have really been struggling with the North American pattern in the medium range for most of this month if you’ve been paying attention. They seem to be struggling the most with the area from Alaska down into the Pacific Northwest. 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Classic CAD. In theory it should be more likely in El Niño due to less SE ridging.  

 

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Likely related ...

... for one, although the sample size is not appreciably large ( on the order of 10 or 12 spanning 200 years ), of those warm ENSO, something like 9 or 10 had these autumn hybrid like circulations.   Not meaning to say that is what's going on down there at this time, but... you know, if you're going to hybridize a gyre in that region, you wanna start with something like the theme we are in fact seeing so far ( the unusual end September coastal event that was over publicized (snark) being a fair example).  Some guidance couldn't resist and bored that thing down to almost 970 mb..  as it were ... it was just a pedestrian. But still very really and albeit asynchronous low - one which happens to fit the total idea. 

We are still in the correlation window so this weakness/tendency for another low there ... it's suggestive enough.

It's important to note however, El Ninos do not directly cause storm or no storm formation. 

 Thanks.
 So, since this pattern of this offshore low and associated cooler air in the E US is likely indirectly related to the very strong Nino, is this possibly a sign of things to come this winter?

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SSW's may be challenged more so than climatology this season.   Hard to say ...some competing signals...

Pro: there is an apparently ( assuming so ) a modeled switch into the westerly QBO phase pretty quickly this autumn. W-QBO correlates to a easterly momentum inject into the stratospheric altitudes.  It's like warm advection currents dissipating at higher altitudes capture/drags some of that momentum then intrudes it into the PV ... and helps the wave break/ SSW phenomenon. 

Con: however, this has been a very active solar disk spring/summer/ and continues here in autumn.  These solar 'storms' break apart ozone in the high altitudes. UV loading related...  Ozone is the primary conductance in getting warm intrusions to 'flash' through the higher PV column. 

I know there will be disagreement on this but IMO, the antecedent conditions are not favorable for SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter despite the super El Nino…..descending solar coming off the max last year, high geomag, strong +QBO; still strengthening and has now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere where it can couple with the tropospheric pattern, +IOD. Very unfavorable IMO but we shall see

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SSW's may be challenged more so than climatology this season.   Hard to say ...some competing signals...

Pro: there is an apparently ( assuming so ) a modeled switch into the westerly QBO phase pretty quickly this autumn. W-QBO correlates to a easterly momentum inject into the stratospheric altitudes.  It's like warm advection currents dissipating at higher altitudes capture/drags some of that momentum then intrudes it into the PV ... and helps the wave break/ SSW phenomenon. 

Con: however, this has been a very active solar disk spring/summer/ and continues here in autumn.  These solar 'storms' break apart ozone in the high altitudes. UV loading related...  Ozone is the primary conductance in getting warm intrusions to 'flash' through the higher PV column. 

I expect a minor warming (non-reversal) and wave-1 reflection event latter January into early Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know there will be disagreement on this but IMO, the antecedent conditions are not favorable for SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter…..descending solar coming off the max last year, high geomag, strong +QBO; still strengthening and has now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere where it can couple with the tropospheric pattern, +IOD. Very unfavorable IMO but we shall see

1983 and 2016 both had minor warmings.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's curious that the seasonal models and Chuck's formula are flagging some -NAO because I agree the background is hostile.