2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific. 

January 1998 had dual forcing with one cell in Nino 3.4 and another near 1+2. The dominant forcing wound up shifting more eastward back to 1+2 in February. Both months were equally as warm. So we are just going to have to wait and see how the finer details within this much stronger historic event work out. 
 

 

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific. 

Fwiw, Euro seasonal rainfall from both Copernicus and the Euro site have equatorial precip maxes in Enso 3/3.4 and not in Enso 1.2 DJF.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202610010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202611010000

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_rain_1m?area=area08&base_time=202610010000&type=tsum&valid_time=202611010000

[George001]

On 10/16/2026 at 6:13 PM, bluewave said:

My early winter guess is that the temperatures will be significantly warmer than any of the current seasonal models are forecasting. The temperatures for the first half of fall have been warmer than any other super El Niño year on record. Plus this is the strongest El Niño by a significant margin. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that the models are probably too cool. In terms of winter prospects, what are your early thoughts? I agree with you that it will be warm, but some of the guidance is indicating that the AN precip anomalies will get pretty far north. So I am thinking it will be more of an interior winter.

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

January 1998 had dual forcing with one cell in Nino 3.4 and another near 1+2. The dominant forcing wound up shifting more eastward back to 1+2 in February. Both months were equally as warm. So we are just going to have to wait and see how the finer details within this much stronger historic event work out. 
 

 

 

It would not surprise me at all to see forcing in 1+2 this winter. The SSTs are going to be more than warm enough to support convection….way warmer than 1997-98 actually. This thing is east-based as they come

[LakePaste25]

I’m with snowman on the MC convection idea. It’s been at near 0 since the summer, not sure why we would expect it to fire up again this winter. Will it be absolute 0? probably not due to the MJO, but it’ll be heavily suppressed just like phase 8 is during La Niña. 

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Webb uses a 24 hr period (forecast Days 14-15 no less) from 10/31-11/1 to establish a forecast for November and December? The pressure to always post something first on the internet must be brutal.

Many people here are throwing around December 2015..talk about extreme.+5 December is warm enough, which I could see, but +12?. It would have to be very dry with many days in the 60's, but with this  el nino who knows?.I think we'll get a good idea how warm in mid ,late November.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Many people here are throwing around December 2015..talk about extreme.+5 December is warm enough, which I could see, but +12?. It would have to be very dry with many days in the 60's, but with this  el nino who knows?.I think we'll get a good idea how warm in mid ,late November.

While I think Webb was cherry picking those 2 dates, I’m in the camp where we will see at least one +10 month for a good swath of this country/continent east of the rockies. For selfish reasons of course, I’m rooting for that month to be December, because that makes it more likely we will see a more temperate month relative to climo in either Jan or Feb, or perhaps both. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It would not surprise me at all to see forcing in 1+2 this winter. The SSTs are going to be more than warm enough to support convection….way warmer than 1997-98 actually. This thing is east-based as they come

The forcing has had more of an eastward lean than 1997 did so far. Notice especially how much stronger the forcing was during the Southern Hemisphere winter closer to the West Coast of South America. Also the extension of the forcing into the Southwest CONUS has been stronger early on than 1997. This make sense it’s the most east based event on record so far.
 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Keith Central PA said:

Many people here are throwing around December 2015..talk about extreme.+5 December is warm enough, which I could see, but +12?. It would have to be very dry with many days in the 60's, but with this  el nino who knows?.I think we'll get a good idea how warm in mid ,late November.

November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.

[donsutherland1]

The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence.

The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The 30C warm pool is actually at 140W. I disagree about the MC. I think the MC is going to be a complete non factor this winter. As @GaWx showed, the MC/IO has been totally non-existent since this event started in the spring, unlike 23-24 and 15-16. I think it stays that way. We also have classic +IOD forcing showing up now
 
 

Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution".

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Euro seasonal rainfall from both Copernicus and the Euro site have equatorial precip maxes in Enso 3/3.4 and not in Enso 1.2 DJF.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202610010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202611010000

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_rain_1m?area=area08&base_time=202610010000&type=tsum&valid_time=202611010000

I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence.

The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.

No issue with that....December should be similar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The forcing has had more of an eastward lean than 1997 did so far. Notice especially how much stronger the forcing was during the Southern Hemisphere winter closer to the West Coast of South America. Also the extension of the forcing into the Southwest CONUS has been stronger early on than 1997. This make sense it’s the most east based event on record so far.
 

 

It also extends further west...it's just more expansive and intense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m with snowman on the MC convection idea. It’s been at near 0 since the summer, not sure why we would expect it to fire up again this winter. Will it be absolute 0? probably not due to the MJO, but it’ll be heavily suppressed just like phase 8 is during La Niña. 

I ditched the MC idea over the summer...he misunderstood my post...in fact, the dearth of MC contribution is in integral part of my final thesis.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan. 

[Keith Central PA]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence.

The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.

No doubt it will be warmer in December but a resonable + 5 like 82 and 97( which means it could snow)..to a 2015 December +12 gives you no chance

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong. 

Convection doesn’t really max out in Nino 1+2, ever. If the center of convection did, we would be talking the most east based event physically possible, rather *just* the most east based event on record. 

[LakePaste25]

That’s not to say convection won’t be west of the 30C warm pool at times (i explained this a couple days ago), but i wouldn’t declare victory for winter because models aren’t showing convection maxing in 1+2, where it doesn’t really max out there to begin with. 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan. 

I’m not arguing, just giving my opinion. IMO that *relatively* “warm” water east of Japan isn’t going to matter as far as forcing anything, the record Nino is going to totally overwhelm it. Those “warm” North PAC waters are nowhere near as warm as the nearly 90F water in Nino region 3.4. It’s not even going to hold a candle to it and the Nino forcing is going to dominate….the latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere isn’t comparable between the two

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not arguing, just giving my opinion. IMO that *relatively* “warm” water east of Japan isn’t going to matter as far as forcing anything, the record Nino is going to totally overwhelm it. Those “warm” North PAC waters are nowhere near as warm as the nearly 90F water in Nino region 3.4. It’s not even going to hold a candle to it and the Nino forcing is going to dominate….the latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere isn’t comparable between the two

No, you're fine...nothing wrong with a healthy debate..no one is out of line. All I'm saying is I am growing quite confident that that current in conjunction with other factors is going to foster a pattern in the higher latitudes that is absolutely independent of the strongest El Nino in history...not 'trump' it. Obviously much more in depth in a few weeks for those who have the time to delve in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

That’s not to say convection won’t be west of the 30C warm pool at times (i explained this a couple days ago), but i wouldn’t declare victory for winter because models aren’t showing convection maxing in 1+2, where it doesn’t really max out there to begin with. 

Not at all what I said. Who declared victory in October? 1.2 is such a tiny area it isn't even possible to he convectively dominant.  The most prolific convection is actually south of Hawaii...which is independent of what I think will go on in the higher latitudes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think it's the -PDO in and of itself that is significant, but it's how we are getting there...this isn't our grandparent's EOF.

[snowman19]

I don't think it's the -PDO in and of itself that is significant, but it's how we are getting there...this isn't our grandparent's EOF.

That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong. 

It's wrong if it's not your forecsst. Isn't that the way it always works? Lol

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.

I think he meant that by mid to late november we will have an idea how december looks, not that whatever happens in november is a sign. In fact, most of the warm Decembers here this past decade have been preceded by Novembers that were near avg or colder than avg and snowier than avg.