2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

This image is textbook AI slop. The -PDO is depicted incorrectly and the QBO oscillates back and forth every year, there's nothing unusual about it. Not to mention the state outlines are distorted.

No idea who this is, but IMO it doesn't reflect well on the business and any seasoned weather enthusiast can see right through it. 

That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.

[GaWx]

 The NAO is higher on today’s GEFS mean vs that of two days ago:

two days ago: peaking 10/15 at +1.0 and then dropping to -1 

 

Today peaks not til 10/19 and with that being up at +1.3 and then drops only to -0.7 followed by a quick bounce that gets back up to -0.2 on 10/27 vs it still being down at -0.9 on 10/27 two days ago

@Stormchaserchuck1

[snowman19]

This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:
 

Yeah, starting to see the SW CONUS trough develop in response to the forcing extending into that area from the EPAC.

 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, starting to see the SW CONUS trough develop in response to the forcing extending into that area from the EPAC.

 

Yeah, the weeklies are starting to show the typical early season super nino pattern, with the displaced Aleutian low in the GOA and secondary low in the SE. Only thing I would say about this post below is that it’s not a -PNA, it’s a “bootleg” +PNA. 

 

 

[Keith Central PA]

34 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah, the weeklies are starting to show the typical early season super nino pattern, with the displaced Aleutian low in the GOA and secondary low in the SE. Only thing I would say about this post below is that it’s not a -PNA, it’s a “bootleg” +PNA. 

 

 

Lets see if the -NAO becomes a feature as we head for winter.The only real hope for winter lovers in the east. But the  Pacific usually overwhelmes the block in Super Nino's

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Lets see if the -NAO becomes a feature as we head for winter.The only real hope for winter lovers in the east. But the  Pacific usually overwhelmes the block in Super Nino's

Our only hope is very strong blocking pr a huge pna ridge. Pacific > Atlantic . 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah, the weeklies are starting to show the typical early season super nino pattern, with the displaced Aleutian low in the GOA and secondary low in the SE. Only thing I would say about this post below is that it’s not a -PNA, it’s a “bootleg” +PNA. 

 

 

Will be interesting to see if we can make it two consecutive years with elements of the winter pattern emerging in November. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

97/98 had some great 40/70 track coastals. In fact a plethora of them. The issue is it’s hard to snow when it’s 45 degrees. It was so far off even elevation wasn’t enough to overcome the warmth.
I mean the most impressive event for all the wrong reasons that winter was this.


.

[Keith Central PA]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

97-98 wasn't that bad inland like here in PA..Snowstorm around New Years was snow in PA and rain on the coast..5 inches in late March in NYC Metro.. Snow is much harder to predict than temps. No doubt it will be warm, but like you said perfect timing is the key.

[Keith Central PA]

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

97/98 had some great 40/70 track coastals. In fact a plethora of them. The issue is it’s hard to snow when it’s 45 degrees. It was so far off even elevation wasn’t enough to overcome the warmth.
I mean the most impressive event for all the wrong reasons that winter was this.


.

Early Jan 1998 icestorm in New England and eastern Canada

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Early Jan 1998 icestorm in New England and eastern Canada

Exactly, it’s pretty hard for it not to snow that far north in early January.
By the way I am aware there were a couple coastals that winter where it was marginally cold enough to snow inland with enough elevation. I fully expect the same this winter. If you’re over 2,000’.


.

[roardog]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

The North American pattern has looked nothing like 1997 to this point. 1997 had a cold November for much of the country. I’m skeptical that we see that same pattern this year. 1997 also had a wintrier pattern the first half of winter than the second. I’m also skeptical of that. We may very well end up with the same results as that winter when all is said and done but if the progression and the way we get there is completely different than is tough to say it’s a match IMO.

[snowman19]

The North American pattern has looked nothing like 1997 to this point. 1997 had a cold November for much of the country. I’m skeptical that we see that same pattern this year. 1997 also had a wintrier pattern the first half of winter than the second. I’m also skeptical of that. We may very well end up with the same results as that winter when all is said and done but if the progression and the way we get there is completely different than is tough to say it’s a match IMO.

We disagree but that’s ok

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

What was your forecast for last winter?

[LakePaste25]

Hasty generalization fallacy. Avoid it. 

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We disagree but that’s ok

Do you think we’ll progress the same as 1997 or are you just talking about the warmth being the same for the east coast when winter is over?

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, roardog said:

The North American pattern has looked nothing like 1997 to this point. 1997 had a cold November for much of the country. I’m skeptical that we see that same pattern this year. 1997 also had a wintrier pattern the first half of winter than the second. I’m also skeptical of that. We may very well end up with the same results as that winter when all is said and done but if the progression and the way we get there is completely different than is tough to say it’s a match IMO.

-PDO this year as well

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Do you think we’ll progress the same as 1997 or are you just talking about the warmth being the same for the east coast when winter is over?

 The warmth in the E US Dec is likely based on strong ENSO/+QBO analogs and models strongly supporting that warmth. However, once you get further into the winter, the jury is still way out on E US warmth, especially MidAtlantic, Mid-South, S Plains and the SE.

[snowman19]

A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive

[GaWx]

Further to my post above, here fwiw (maybe not much but it has been rather persistent on the general idea) is the latest 3 day/12 run averaged CFS for Feb:

 

Feb precip:

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive

It increases volatility. When you combine deconstructive indices together there's no one size fits all analog. 

I think it would ballsy and delusional to forecast a cold winter. That doesn't mean 1-2 major snow events are off the table either. 

[csnavywx]

The issue with using the CFSv2 at this time is that it is clearly having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. That's definitely going to have an effect on its forcing placement and one of the reasons we see it giving ground. Feb will likely end up warmer.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The issue with using the CFSv2 at this time is that it is clearly having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. That's definitely going to have an effect on its forcing placement and one of the reasons we see it giving ground. Feb will likely end up warmer.

Thank you.

Keep in mind though that it hasn’t come anywhere close to completely giving ground yet as the latest 12 run mean shows. That’s why I posted it to show its persistence for whatever that’s worth. Also, climo supports that Feb has a decent chance to be cold, especially in the S 1/2 of the US.

[roardog]

44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The warmth in the E US Dec is likely based on strong ENSO/+QBO analogs and models strongly supporting that warmth. However, once you get further into the winter, the jury is still way out on E US warmth, especially MidAtlantic, Mid-South, S Plains and the SE.

There’s no doubt it’s most likely going to be a very mild winter for the country overall. Maybe I’m being picky but I don’t like how 97-98 kind of progressed backward of what you’d expect from a Nino with February being the warmest month that season. If you’re going to use 97-98 as your analog season and December ends up being the warmest month then it wasn’t 97-98 like at all IMO. Maybe everyone disagrees with me, I don’t know. lol

[LakePaste25]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It increases volatility. When you combine deconstructive indices together there's no one size fits all analog. 

I think it would ballsy and delusional to forecast a cold winter. That doesn't mean 1-2 major snow events are off the table either. 

If there are 1-2 major snow events this winter, it won’t have much to do with the PDO IMO. 

[csnavywx]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you.

Keep in mind though that it hasn’t come anywhere close to completely giving ground yet as the latest 12 run mean shows. That’s why I posted it to show its persistence for whatever that’s worth. Also, climo supports that Feb has a decent chance to be cold, especially in the S 1/2 of the US.

I agree Feb has the best chance of being cooler.

Most of the caving is currently in the Jan window. 

I would expect something closer to what the BoM ensemble depicts.

[jaxjagman]

Definite dont see the PDO flipping anytime soon.

Yellow Sea and especially Sea of Japan into the  Western Pac should be cooling not warming.These more polar currents are getting overwhelmed by the warm currents,it should be getting mixed out but its really not