2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally.

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

Weeklies?

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies?

Today’s aren't out yet.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones.

‘23 JJAS PDO -2.4
‘26 JJAS PDO -1.2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC). 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC). 

Here’s the breakdown of Oct vs DJF NAO for +1.4+ Ninos since 1950:

2023: - +
2015: + +
2009: - -
1997: - N
1991: N +
1986: + -
1982: - +
1972: + +
1965: + -
1957: + -

 So, of the 5 +Oct, DJF was - thrice and + twice fwiw

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^5-1-3 Opposite for + Oct NAO states. About matches the 80-year composite which is 55% opposite. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

 

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

It was just a hypothetical comment.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

Looks like a pretty pleasant month setting up in the southern Great Lakes, ie in the far eastern reaches of the Midwest lol. Colors rapidly popping, sunny with crisp chilly nights, temps oscillating between above and below avg.

[Prismshine Productions]

One side effect of bottling the cold air source from the atmospheric pattern in the Pacific is an explosion in ice extent since the Equinox, already back up over (via tomorrow's update) 5.6m km², the highest since 2014 and an increase of 950k km in the last two weeks.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[Chinook]

This is a very good video on the El Nino-powered winter(ish) tornado forecast

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/2/2026 at 10:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another possibility I am toying with is having more of a supply of cold readily available to the CONUS relative to the east-based intense Nino composite AND having the STJ displaced N & W relative to said composite...which could be great for us, especially across the interior.

 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

[Terpeast]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Looks a lot like 97-98 in terms of snowfall where the apps and interior get dumped on while coastal plains get below climo.

But we only need one! (Speaking for the MA)

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks a lot like 97-98 in terms of snowfall where the apps and interior get dumped on while coastal plains get below climo.

But we only need one! (Speaking for the MA)

Maybe, but I feel like the timing will be different this year....a more hostile December and a better for February.

[bluewave]

All-time records continue to increase. This was the first +5.3 week ever for Nino 1+2 ONI. Nino 3 and 3.4 records are also being set. 

Highlighting 1+2 due to how low the models have been here. While the Euro is much better than the CFS, they both missed how east based this has become.

The interesting thing about both models is that they start to show a second rise in Nino 1+2 heading into next spring on the Euro and early summer on the CFS. The Euro October update was just issued.

Nino 3 staying above +4 into February would also be a first . The previous Nino 3 February record was +2.8 in 1998. So it’s possible that the +30C warm pool makes it as far east as Nino 3 for the first time. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

30SEP2026     26.1 5.3     29.0 4.0     29.9 3.2     29.9 1.2

04FEB1998     28.0 2.4     28.9 2.8     28.9 2.3     28.8 0.7

 

 

[mitchnick]

Euro monthly October out

Here's temps. Similar to September. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

Here's all other product link:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

[mitchnick]

Euro a little wetter this run vs September for the DJF period. Probably noise.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Euro monthly October out

Here's temps. Similar to September. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

Here's all other product link:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Thanks, Mitch.

Here are the Euro Oct progs for winter going back to 2017-8 for comparison purposes and how they did in the E US:

2026:

 

2025: much too warm

 

2024: much too warm

 

2023 (Nino): too cold

2022: too cold (not warm enough)

 

2021: net slightly too warm (close SE, too warm NE)

 

2020: net too warm (much too warm SE; avg of too warm NE but close N Eng)

 

2019: pretty close (slightly too cold SE but close NE)

 

2018 (Nino): net too cold (close NE but much too cold SE):

 

2017: close

 

————————
Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

[mitchnick]

Monthly temp and precip care of bncho in MA forum.

 

[OSUmetstud]

ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4. 

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4. 

 

 We’re almost certainly heading for the most E based Nino on record for good or for bad. The SE ridge should be held back bigly, which would be really good from my perspective.

[Prismshine Productions]

One side effect of bottling the cold air source from the atmospheric pattern in the Pacific is an explosion in ice extent since the Equinox, already back up over (via tomorrow's update) 5.6m km², the highest since 2014 and an increase of 950k km in the last two weeks.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

And it did come in... 5.683m km², a 1.008m increase in the last two weeks

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[Keith Central PA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

All-time records continue to increase. This was the first +5.3 week ever for Nino 1+2 ONI. Nino 3 and 3.4 records are also being set. 

Highlighting 1+2 due to how low the models have been here. While the Euro is much better than the CFS, they both missed how east based this has become.

The interesting thing about both models is that they start to show a second rise in Nino 1+2 heading into next spring on the Euro and early summer on the CFS. The Euro October update was just issued.

Nino 3 staying above +4 into February would also be a first . The previous Nino 3 February record was +2.8 in 1998. So it’s possible that the +30C warm pool makes it as far east as Nino 3 for the first time. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

30SEP2026     26.1 5.3     29.0 4.0     29.9 3.2     29.9 1.2

04FEB1998     28.0 2.4     28.9 2.8     28.9 2.3     28.8 0.7

 

 

3-4 cools off to neutral by next June on CFS. Are you saying el nino will continue into 27-28? Or something like 83-84 with a weak Nina?

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

3-4 cools off to neutral by next June on CFS. Are you saying el nino will continue into 27-28? Or something like 83-84 with a weak Nina?

It’s a really good question. The very end of the CFS run next June continues the Nino in 3 and 1+2 due to the WWBs shifting the warm pool east. We can also see the model showing a significant subsurface warm pool in the EPAC at the end of the run. Plus the current CFS is much too cool for its initialization of 1+2 this week. So its forecasts are already too weak.

We are in uncharted territory with how extreme the warming is becoming with this El Niño. So we really don’t have any similar analogs to draw from. All we can say is that 82-83 was a significantly weaker event and managed to linger into early July in the Nino 1+2 regions.

There has never been a +30C warm pool pushed this far to the east in the Pacific before. So we don’t really know for sure how quickly the record WWBs will relax heading into next June. All the models keep the WWBs going until the end of their runs next June. 

But it’s interesting that they are all saying the same thing including the recent extended Euro runs. 

These models aren’t really designed to see much past the spring forecast barrier and we are still only in the fall.  Plus there isn’t any data on events this strong and how they might influence the pattern once we get past the spring.