2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho. 

Absolutely....this is what happens in my composites. The ridges is displaced SE and makes for an awful December, before it lifts northward more into the NAO domain after El Nino peaks and collapses westward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is a section from my polar domain write-up in July.

 

The most glaring commonality between the QBO composite and both the solar and intense El Niño composites is the pronounced ridging stretching from the northeastern CONUS and into central Canada, which obviously is a rather mild signal for the forecast area in the seasonal mean. However, it has been mentioned on numerous occasions that neither of these winter composites are entirely bereft of high latitude blocking or even shorts bursts of severe winter weather. This is evident in the bifurcation of the composite below.

This is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance.

What is clear is that as El Niño begins to wane and perhaps shift somewhat to the west as the season evolves, the Gulf of Alaska low begins to retrograde, which allows the central Canadian-Northeastern CONUS ridge to lift up into the NAO domain. This mid-to-latter season progression is the crux of the volatility and Modoki-like episode(s) that have been referenced with the respect the overall characterization of the polar domain. The primary risk here for a transition to a significantly colder pattern is that the block is more oriented towards the Eastern portion of the NAO domain, which is especially evident in the more meager El Niño analogs that did not have the very cohesive Gulf of Alaska low that is synonymous with El Niño. 

 

The inference is that the development of the more Modoki like intervals during the second half of the season is contingent on the progression of the mid latitudes of the northern Hemisphere growing more redolent of traditional El Niño as boreal winter ensues, which should take place given the forecast for this warm ENSO event to reach an unprecedented magnitude as Mother Nature gives her best shot at the redistribution of that stagnant west Pacific warm pool. A prime example of the failure of this effort is the earlier referenced MC-oriented El Nino event of 2023-2024, which actually maintained a North Pacific ridge more characteristic of cool ENSO, with a split low on either side. This essentially allowed ridging to persist overt the northeastern CONUS as if it were a cool ENSO season.

However, it has made clear when discussing the implication of El Niño on the polar domain that the developing uber-El Nino event is unlikely to be as biased towards the MC-end of the spectrum as the 2023-2024 event due to it's extreme intensity, and instead end up more akin to the 2015-2016 event, which had a more subdued MC influence and ultimately did indeed boast a bonafide Gulf of Alaska low. 

 

This is consistent with the expectation for the polar domain throughout out the 2026-2027 winter season. Largely void of high latitude blocking throughout the first half of the season before some intervals of a more disturbed polar domain mixed in throughout the second half. This is a theme that is consistent throughout the vast majority of the analogs, which are littered with notoriously wintry periods such as March 1958, February 1983, March 2005 and latter January into February 2016, a stretch which featured the historic east coast blizzard of January 22-24 and the record cold of Valentine's  Day. This shift towards fleeting bouts of  severe winter weather later in the season is consistent with research concerning the behavior of the higher latitudes during the westerly phase of the QBO, which concluded that the polar vortex is less prone to disruption from Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) overall, but grows more susceptible later in the season per what is referred to as the Holton-Tan relationship. This is due to the fact that the default direction of the zonal winds in the polar region is from the west, thus a westerly QBO is consistent with this and is thus less likely to lead to disruption, or a complete reversal of these winds in the case of a technical SSW (Holton, Tan 1980), until later in the season if at all. This is largely because it is theorized that westerly winds in the stratosphere inhibit the development of a stronger Aleutian high, which is more conducive to the development of said SSWs that entail the full reversal of zonal winds that subsequently leads to either a splitting or displacement of the PV. The inference here is that although a positive NAO and stronger than average PV are favored in the DJFM seasonal mean per previously referenced research on years descending from solar max and westerly QBO, the shear magnitude of warmth throughout the entire ENSO basin should disrupt the antecedent MC regime enough to allow for at least some transient intervals of high latitude blocking and potentially severe winter weather later in the season, as El Niño peaks and potentially allows the Gulf of Alaska low to retrograde. Research by Gray et al, 2004 elaborates on this complex relationship between the solar cycle and the QBO phase.

[Keith Central PA]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

December 1982 was very warm but it did snow in NYC in the middle of the month, which goes to show you when it comes to snowfall it's hard to predict.Of course it's hard to snow when the overall month is warm,but it can. it's December

[Keith Central PA]

December 12th 1982..then famous snowplow game in New England

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

December 12th 1982..then famous snowplow game in New England

I was watching Channel 7 DC 11pm weather segment (though I was living just south of BWI at the time but still watched DC wx forecasts along with Baltimore 's lol) and I noticed that the precip shield had expanded all the way into the WVA panhandle, which was a good 40 miles to my NW. And thought that was strange because the guy had just said the storm was to stay to our south. Then he said "hmmm, that precip is pretty far north for a miss" and I  thought Game On Baby!!

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's gone more east-based than I had envisioned, NVM guidance...which was way off. I don't love that, but like I have been saying, I don't think it makes much of a difference when it's this strong. If anything, it probably helps to limit any residual MC influence that would destructively interfere with potemtial big storm windows. So, while that probably puts the nail in the coffin on any hopes of avoiding a pretty mild season, it  may paradoxically help in terms of  landing that big fish.

I may have to shift from a basin-wide to east-based composite, which makes it more likely that the mean ridge ends up se of Hudson Bay.

CANSIPS appears to have a significant Modoki bias based on several years of data. I thought it had this bias even before this year.

[forkyfork]

so stop looking at it? i don't even look at the gfs

[forkyfork]

 

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

LFG! Been waiting for this to happen. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection. 

Essentially us in New England are closing the shades until Winter 27-28

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[LakePaste25]

Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW. 

 

[George001]

13 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Essentially us in New England are closing the shades until Winter 27-28

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A rouge blizzard is certainly possible, but things don’t look good for northern areas. I agree that 27-28 will offer better chances for sustained winter weather. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña than a super Nino. Although weak La Niña is preferred, even in some stronger La Niña years my area has gotten hit hard at times. I dont think there has been even one super El Niño year with AN snowfall locally, and all of them are AN to well AN temps. Even the “better” super Nino analogs like 15-16, 82-83 etc were warm with below average snowfall (82-83 was closer to average, but still a bit below and was warm, so still a bad winter by my standards).

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW. 

 

Here’s the version of CRW anomalies for Nino 3.4 that best takes into account GW in determining anomalies: it’s +2.5C and rising:

[GaWx]

The daily WCS PDO has risen back substantially the last 7 days ending yesterday with it up to -0.9, the highest since way back on July 2nd, vs ~-1.65 one week earlier:

[GaWx]

After being pretty flat in August/first few days of Sept, the relative 3.4 OISST anomaly has risen sharply the last two days:

Sept 4th relative 3.4: +2.254

 

Sept 6th relative 3.4 anomaly: +2.429, a rise of 0.175 in just two days…that’s the most rapid two day rise on this entire chart as it is the most rapid two day rise since June 3rd-5th, which is not on this chart:

[Chinook]

I am wondering how the El Nino may already be shifting 250mb winds, even as we've just started, in summer. Obviously, we'll expect lots of subtropical jet in winter. As for now, I used the HISTDATA from NOAA to plot this... it's essentially the same as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis but it lacks some capabilities. Anyway, the 250mb zonal winds have been more westerly than average for some of the E Pacific, into southern Mexico, then out to the Atlantic. You can see the evidence of a ridge over the central USA. Now, we know El Nino tends to have these situations where the wind shear is quite high for the Atlantic hurricane season and squash that. But here's the question: if the 250mb winds were so westerly, why has the E Pacific generated some strong storms? Of course, on here, there's the Hawaii area ,which has had a hurricane this summer (and now a couple more storms by Hawaii), with the more-easterly-than-average winds as shown.