2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's gone more east-based than I had envisioned, NVM guidance...which was way off. I don't love that, but like I have been saying, I don't think it makes much of a difference when it's this strong. If anything, it probably helps to limit any residual MC influence that would destructively interfere with potemtial big storm windows. So, while that probably puts the nail in the coffin on any hopes of avoiding a pretty mild season, it  may paradoxically help in terms of  landing that big fish.

I may have to shift from a basin-wide to east-based composite, which makes it more likely that the mean ridge ends up se of Hudson Bay.

CANSIPS appears to have a significant Modoki bias based on several years of data. I thought it had this bias even before this year.

[forkyfork]

so stop looking at it? i don't even look at the gfs

[forkyfork]

 

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

LFG! Been waiting for this to happen. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection. 

Essentially us in New England are closing the shades until Winter 27-28

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[LakePaste25]

Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW. 

 

[George001]

13 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Essentially us in New England are closing the shades until Winter 27-28

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

A rouge blizzard is certainly possible, but things don’t look good for northern areas. I agree that 27-28 will offer better chances for sustained winter weather. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña than a super Nino. Although weak La Niña is preferred, even in some stronger La Niña years my area has gotten hit hard at times. I dont think there has been even one super El Niño year with AN snowfall locally, and all of them are AN to well AN temps. Even the “better” super Nino analogs like 15-16, 82-83 etc were warm with below average snowfall (82-83 was closer to average, but still a bit below and was warm, so still a bad winter by my standards).

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW. 

 

Here’s the version of CRW anomalies for Nino 3.4 that best takes into account GW in determining anomalies: it’s +2.5C and rising:

[GaWx]

The daily WCS PDO has risen back substantially the last 7 days ending yesterday with it up to -0.9, the highest since way back on July 2nd, vs ~-1.65 one week earlier:

[GaWx]

After being pretty flat in August/first few days of Sept, the relative 3.4 OISST anomaly has risen sharply the last two days:

Sept 4th relative 3.4: +2.254

 

Sept 6th relative 3.4 anomaly: +2.429, a rise of 0.175 in just two days…that’s the most rapid two day rise on this entire chart as it is the most rapid two day rise since June 3rd-5th, which is not on this chart:

[Chinook]

I am wondering how the El Nino may already be shifting 250mb winds, even as we've just started, in summer. Obviously, we'll expect lots of subtropical jet in winter. As for now, I used the HISTDATA from NOAA to plot this... it's essentially the same as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis but it lacks some capabilities. Anyway, the 250mb zonal winds have been more westerly than average for some of the E Pacific, into southern Mexico, then out to the Atlantic. You can see the evidence of a ridge over the central USA. Now, we know El Nino tends to have these situations where the wind shear is quite high for the Atlantic hurricane season and squash that. But here's the question: if the 250mb winds were so westerly, why has the E Pacific generated some strong storms? Of course, on here, there's the Hawaii area ,which has had a hurricane this summer (and now a couple more storms by Hawaii), with the more-easterly-than-average winds as shown.

[raindancewx]

Roughly 20F off so far for parts of Iowa. No big deal. Only 10-15F or so by CA/OR so far.

La Nina Modoki / El Nino traditional tend to favor the West Cold Fall-Spring (E Pac relatively warm v. W Pac at the equator in each case).

[raindancewx]

Again, we are tracking the last four El Ninos rather well as a blend.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep I cant wait for hoodie and sweat pants season.

For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, TriPol said:

Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season. 

This is a trademark of climate for the east coast (particularly NYC south) and the Mid-Atlantic. Which is why I dont understand the panic from some over an expected milder than average mean over a 90 day period. Especially with the overwhelming signal for above avg precip in the east.

It is different here in the Great Lakes. Big storms are usually in the 6-12" range but snow is much more frequent than the east coast. So my worry about a crummy winter is not that it wont snow- it will many times- its that in the end total snow, snowcover, and stretches of sustained/deep winter are almost always less than average in strong ninos. I imagine its similar in new England, and even though they do get massive noreasters, i cant imagine 1 storm would make or break their season as it would further down the coast.

[GaWx]

 

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

I am wondering how the El Nino may already be shifting 250mb winds, even as we've just started, in summer. Obviously, we'll expect lots of subtropical jet in winter. As for now, I used the HISTDATA from NOAA to plot this... it's essentially the same as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis but it lacks some capabilities. Anyway, the 250mb zonal winds have been more westerly than average for some of the E Pacific, into southern Mexico, then out to the Atlantic. You can see the evidence of a ridge over the central USA. Now, we know El Nino tends to have these situations where the wind shear is quite high for the Atlantic hurricane season and squash that. But here's the question: if the 250mb winds were so westerly, why has the E Pacific generated some strong storms? Of course, on here, there's the Hawaii area ,which has had a hurricane this summer (and now a couple more storms by Hawaii), with the more-easterly-than-average winds as shown.

 Despite the high level of activity in the EPAC, they’ve almost entirely avoided getting close to MX. Only the two TS Boris and Cristina were right next to MX or C America and those were in early June, well before the Aug 14-Sep 4th period you showed the 250mb wind component anomalies for. 
 
 The only 4 during Aug 14th-Sep 4th that even show MX on the map were the four I’m noting below and one can see that MX isn’t even that close. All of these mainly avoided the areas with average 250 mb wind anomalies of +6+ on your map as their tracks were mainly within the +2 to +6 anomalies (yes still + but not large + anomalies and they may have formed when actual anomalies were lower since your map is just the avg for a 3 week period):

-TS Iselle:

 

 

TS Julio:

 

H Karina:

 

H Maria: closest to MX of these 4 but still 375 miles away from Cabo

 

Here’s ‘26 season to date:

 

 Compare the above ‘26 season to date map with the 2015 full season below. Note that in 2015 by today’s date, the following had already occurred that were either right at or nearer MX than the ‘26 tracks excluding Boris:

-Blanca (cat 4 H)

-Carlos (cat 1 H)

-Dolores (cat 4 H)

-Kevin (60 mph TS) not too far from Cabo

-Linda (cat 3H) not too far from Baja

 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it.

The smell of pumpkin spice.

[JACKASS]

Garbage piled on the sides of every street now smells like pumpkin spice?

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The smell of bum is nice.

Must be a tri-state thing

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Garbage piled on the sides of every street now smells like pumpkin spice?

Lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Must be a tri-state thing

Use to it

[MJO812]

 

[GaWx]

For the first run I’ve ever seen, the CFSv2 ensemble AAM forecast has its key at the bottom of the graph because there’s no room on top on either side! It is approaching 3. Three of the four members of the 9/7/26 12Z run have it exceed 4 on Sept 15th (day 9). I’ve still never seen the AAM get to 4 by the way. Will it finally do so this time?

[MJO812]

Mike Masco

THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING...

I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto.

This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds:

GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF

Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland?

This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south.

This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February.

 THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN

I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker.

This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country.

A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely.

THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE

So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter.

You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture.

A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S.

The million-dollar question for the Northeast:

Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? 

That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important.

Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together.

Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching. 

[bluewave]

The 0-300m ocean heat content is really off the charts.

[forkyfork]

how many struggling independent ski resorts is this nino going to put out of business? 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

how many struggling independent ski resorts is this nino going to put out of business? 

The Nino is likely going to greatly help some ski resorts this winter.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0-300m ocean heat content is really off the charts.

The warming related to AGW is itself a factor helping to cause 2026-7 to be so much warmer than these prior Ninos since the globe continues to warm. Without that, although 2026-7 would possibly still be the warmest, it at a minimum wouldn’t be as far above these others. In other words, this graph isn’t a fair way to determine the strength of each of these El Niños, themselves, since AGW gives an advantage to later ones.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Nino is likely going to greatly help some ski resorts this winter.

Any ski resorts that struggled the last few cold winters in the Great Lakes/Northeast have no business being in business in the first place.

[TriPol]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco

THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING...

I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto.

This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds:

GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF

Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland?

This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south.

This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February.

 THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN

I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker.

This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country.

A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely.

THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE

So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter.

You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture.

A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S.

The million-dollar question for the Northeast:

Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? 

That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important.

Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together.

Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching. 

If the STJ is amped all we need is a slight collision with the arctic jet and BOOM we have a phased storm which is what provides the most epic blizzards of all time. I think the signal is there for a record setting winter in the NYC area. Please no one weenie tag me.