2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Dec, Jan, Feb :

 

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models

Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

 

I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.

 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. 

These models were so bad in 23-24. 

So you've gone over to the dark side too, ehh? Lol 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.

Yep both have been consistent

[raindancewx]

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.

 

Beautiful signature. Should be a fun winter . Very active ( Hopefully alot of snow)

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

This is primarily the reason I now expect normal precipitation for Austin thru September in 2027. For this autumn and winter, maybe a couple of inches, and some drizzle.

All of my hopes for at least replenishing rains in Austin are utterly DASHED. Texas WILL run out of water.

There is a reason all the trees down here are a third of the height of trees in N Virginia.

It's dry.

We are so forsaken by life-giving rains, that even during the 40 day rain event of deep antiquity, we probably got 40 days of light drizzle. We are used to this. It is NO surprise. Of course we got missed by the strongest El Nino in history! I have always wanted to be caught right in the middle of a record 489 billion year flood for the Ages. Of course, I am shyte out of luck and always will be.

This is a very east-based Nino, moisture plume will orient very far east,(well-away from south central Texas of course) record Nino or not. If you like sunshine, no floods ever, and east based Ninos, come live in Austin. We will have plenty of sun all winter and the average high temperature in January in Austin is 60 degrees! We have the best weather in the entire world, especially if you don't mind perpetual drought and rapidly diminishing water reserves!

Damn I have got to get out of this place! I wanna spend a few years in Cherrapunji, India. Trust me, that place gets plenty of rain!