2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Dec, Jan, Feb :

 

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models

Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

 

I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.

 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. 

These models were so bad in 23-24. 

So you've gone over to the dark side too, ehh? Lol 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.

Yep both have been consistent

[raindancewx]

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.