2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

There may be some gas left in the tank with this Nino. There is a possibility of ONI anomaly reaching near 3C if we can maintain this heat into the Oct-Dec timeframe, that will be quite the test for the next 2-3 months. Im not so sure we get much past 2.5C with RONI but will have to wait and see how the cold pool develops more. We have a nice +10 anomaly showing up and the 30C contour seems to be stopped at just west of 150W currently and some thermocline changes trying to show up toward the tale end of the gif. This is probably the bounce back after the KW in mid to late July and enhancement of trades again as we get into the first two weeks of September.

This has been fascinating to watch that even this pronounced of an ENSO event has not produced much in the way of +IOD yet and helped in switching over to a +PDO state even for a short amount of time.

I think the most impressive thing thus far has been how quickly this built up the temps and not necessarily the temps themselves. This will be documented as one of the fastest growing ENSO events we have seen with those record WWB's we saw early on. Now the question comes does this as some models try to produce even more strengthening or do we continue to see stagnation and then a decline. 

A lot of answers will show up in the next month.

Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the European monthly depiction of monthly precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

 

[soadforecasterx]

So does this mean that this El Nino may not be as record breaking as it once looked?

[BlizzardWx]

ECMWF clusters week 3-6 seem to net hint at a move towards +PNA ridging in western Canada but there is a solid second group keeping ridging going somewhere in south-central Canada or north-central USA as we head into fall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

ECMWF clusters week 3-6 seem to net hint at a move towards +PNA ridging in western Canada but there is a solid second group keeping ridging going somewhere in south-central Canada or north-central USA as we head into fall. 

Roundy's stuff favors  W Canada.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Roundy's stuff favors  W Canada.

heh...   ENSO correlations for 300 years do too -

but, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that until the gradient locks in and the jet(s) configures accordingly ...etc. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.

 Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now.

  Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0!

 Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies:

7/22-31: Aug was +2.35

 

7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0

8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75

 

8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5

 

 The trend is clearly down.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

So does this mean that this El Nino may not be as record breaking as it once looked?

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat!

 

CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat!

 

CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

 

 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Thanks for posting that excellent graph! Now 2026 is essentially neck and neck with 1997. RONI/ONI will almost start warming again and likely soon/at a good pace, but:

-it has clearly fallen behind model consensus that had steady warming throughout this month rather than the net flatness/pause of the last 3 weeks

-so when warming resumes, even if in earnest, it will be restarting from a lower point than previously progged by models

 

[csnavywx]

On 8/21/2026 at 8:09 AM, csnavywx said:

We've tapped the brakes here on the subsurface (peaking in the short run around +10-11C) as the trades temporarily recovered a bit, but the recent very strong WWB plus a migration of the standing wave towards 160W over the next ~10d should put the pedal back to the metal. CFSv2 forecasts are just playing catch-up on fully integrating the effects of wind stress and should bottom out here in the next week or so before crawling back up.

Subsurface moving back up in response. Surface should follow over the next several days. 

 

1997-98 did not reach this level until mid-Oct. Any forecast that has us close to 82/83 or 97/98 at this point isn't really viable without a significant increase in trades *now*.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1How does this composite look now? I tweaked by subtracting the 1941-1970 climo period to wash out a lot of the lower heights and accentuate the positive anomalies in an effort to better capture the changing climate.

Might still be too much +PNA -50dm max for DJFM I'll take the under on (higher anomaly). Looks good though! 

[csnavywx]

The recurring interesting question for me has been how far east the warm pool will make it. Max SSTs are now sitting at 170-140W, which puts it neatly and completely inside the 3.4 region (and only a few degrees off of as far east as it ever got in '97). Further movement towards the east will increasingly put max SSTs inside Nino 3 at the "expense" of 3.4. If it gets to say, 130W or 120W, cooling will enter 3.4 from the *west* and it may end up stalling 3.4 while still spiking Nino 3. 

TLDR: This event may get so east-based as to break the measurement benchmark and cause it to systematically understate the event.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The recurring interesting question for me has been how far east the warm pool will make it. Max SSTs are now sitting at 170-140W, which puts it neatly and completely inside the 3.4 region (and only a few degrees off of as far east as it ever got in '97). Further movement towards the east will increasingly put max SSTs inside Nino 3 at the "expense" of 3.4. If it gets to say, 130W or 120W, cooling will enter 3.4 from the *west* and it may end up stalling 3.4 while still spiking Nino 3. 

TLDR: This event may get so east-based as to break the measurement benchmark and cause it to systematically understate the event.

I would have 0 complaints if that happened, would be a needed reset of the W pacific warm pool that a few of us have been talking about here for awhile now 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Now that everyone's convinced that the el nino won't peak as high, watch the 5C peak in February run verify.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Subsurface moving back up in response. Surface should follow over the next several days. 

 

1997-98 did not reach this level until mid-Oct. Any forecast that has us close to 82/83 or 97/98 at this point isn't really viable without a significant increase in trades *now*.

I believe most modeling has it peaking in November, faster than 82/83 & 97/98. If that's what happens, an earlier peak, it doesn't necessarily have to exceed those years. It still could, but it's not a given. The faster it has developed, the faster it fades? Idk, just sayin'.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just your typical nearly 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutians during El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Starting to think that maybe it’s the hyperactive pac basin that’s pushing all these high heights into the northern latitudes. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I would have 0 complaints if that happened, would be a needed reset of the W pacific warm pool that a few of us have been talking about here for awhile now 

I think any reset will be short lived. Nothing will stop a la nina from happening the following winter and we'll be back to a hot and dry pattern

Lakepaste, the problem with hot and wet is it makes nasty disease carrying bugs overpopulate and then I have to spend the entire summer spraying even nastier chemicals both outside and inside. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@40/70 Benchmark 23-24 maxed at -30dm in N. Pacific off the coast of CA (WPO area doesn't count) and the bigger story was probably +45dm south of the Aleutian islands

See Larry's post

 

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think any reset will be short lived. Nothing will stop a la nina from happening the following winter and we'll be back to a hot and dry pattern

 

I hope not. I prefer both hot and wet in the summer like during 2021 because it’s tropical-like. Had 90s and severe storms multiple times per week with lows in the 70s. That was an S tier summer. 

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.

Yea the dynamic models tend to always overdo things but with how quickly the evolution was that made sense. I have always felt statistical was the better suite as dynamic models tend to keep with how things are going at the present time moving forward which is really hard to do. The answer usually lies just above statistical model suite line.

Seeing as though there are some lessening of the overall push within the last 2 weeks and some more to come I would say we coast at this point. We will come close to the overall daily peak we saw in 2015 with a near 3C but trimonthly should end up around roughly 2.5-2.7 range when all is said and done, unless we have another surprise. Given that, RONI trimonthly may end up a bit lower than 2.5 on the trimonthly more so closer to 2.2-2.3 from the perspective of NOAA calculations. Now lets see if we can get the atmosphere to represent that of a super Nino coming up this fall.

There definitely seem to be limitations to overall intensity even in a warming climate, maybe if the PDO was not fighting back we could have reached those upper thresholds.

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now.

  Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0!

 Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies:

7/22-31: Aug was +2.35

 

7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0

8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75

 

8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5

 

 The trend is clearly down.

It looks maybe for the time of year we will come close to the highest RONI number but overall 1982/83 takes the cake when it happened in December.

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 8/23/2026 at 10:59 PM, EasternLI said:

Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. 

link to site?

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 8/23/2026 at 11:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

insignifcat

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 8/23/2026 at 11:17 PM, EasternLI said:

Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens!

I dont think it really is and either way the odds of el nino not coupling to the n pac during northen winter are near zero so imo the point is moot 

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 8/24/2026 at 6:25 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino.

As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.

I would say three years of la nina are likely

[ensonerd1233e343]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.

Mine are 3.3-3.5 oni  2.4-2.6 roni so we agree for roni i just think the tropics will be warmer so the gap between roni and oni will be bigger

[ensonerd1233e343]

12 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

So does this mean that this El Nino may not be as record breaking as it once looked?

still record breaking

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

I dont think it really is and either way the odds of el nino not coupling to the n pac during northen winter are near zero so imo the point is moot 

Everyone falls into the analog trap. 23-24 didn't couple and it peaked at +2.0c

Here are the last 3 El Nino Winters: