2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

There may be some gas left in the tank with this Nino. There is a possibility of ONI anomaly reaching near 3C if we can maintain this heat into the Oct-Dec timeframe, that will be quite the test for the next 2-3 months. Im not so sure we get much past 2.5C with RONI but will have to wait and see how the cold pool develops more. We have a nice +10 anomaly showing up and the 30C contour seems to be stopped at just west of 150W currently and some thermocline changes trying to show up toward the tale end of the gif. This is probably the bounce back after the KW in mid to late July and enhancement of trades again as we get into the first two weeks of September.

This has been fascinating to watch that even this pronounced of an ENSO event has not produced much in the way of +IOD yet and helped in switching over to a +PDO state even for a short amount of time.

I think the most impressive thing thus far has been how quickly this built up the temps and not necessarily the temps themselves. This will be documented as one of the fastest growing ENSO events we have seen with those record WWB's we saw early on. Now the question comes does this as some models try to produce even more strengthening or do we continue to see stagnation and then a decline. 

A lot of answers will show up in the next month.

Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the European monthly depiction of monthly precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

 

[soadforecasterx]

So does this mean that this El Nino may not be as record breaking as it once looked?

[BlizzardWx]

ECMWF clusters week 3-6 seem to net hint at a move towards +PNA ridging in western Canada but there is a solid second group keeping ridging going somewhere in south-central Canada or north-central USA as we head into fall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

ECMWF clusters week 3-6 seem to net hint at a move towards +PNA ridging in western Canada but there is a solid second group keeping ridging going somewhere in south-central Canada or north-central USA as we head into fall. 

Roundy's stuff favors  W Canada.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Roundy's stuff favors  W Canada.

heh...   ENSO correlations for 300 years due too -

but, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that until the gradient locks in and the jet(s) configures accordingly ...etc.