2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. 

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

[EasternLI]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens!

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter. 

I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino.

As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.

[GaWx]

 The NOAA weekly SSTa’s have been ~unchanged the last 2 weeks in all Nino regions except there has been 0.3 of cooling in Nino 4. This Nino 4 cooling jibes well with this OISST Nino 4 graph:

 

 They kept 3.4 at +1.8, which continues to be ~0.4 cooler than what this OISST has been suggesting:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino.

As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.

Once we get past cool ENSO episode, it's lights-out for the multidecadal Pac cold phase.

[GaWx]

 Check out how much cooler is August on the BoM RONI vs 2 weeks earlier:

Two weeks ago Aug was +2.6 and Aug had been +2.6 to +2.7 on EVERY weekly run going all the way back to the early June run!

Last and this week Aug cooled substantially to only +2.15!

 

 I've been following this carefully every BoM run since April 11th. EVERY month May through Aug has ended up ~0.4 cooler and Apr ended up 0.6 cooler than what the BoM had been stubbornly predicting for weeks on end mid-month and earlier for each of these nearby months without fail! 
 

 This tells me with good confidence that Sep won’t end up even close to the +3.0 to +3.1 that it has been progging on EVERY run for Sep back to the June 13th run. (This is the same kind of strong warm bias that it had for the ‘23 Nino.) Thus I’m predicting that Sept will end up no warmer than +2.7 and it may end up as cool as only +2.4.

 What does this portend for the Nov peak? The BoM has been progging an ~+3.5 Nov peak since the July 25th run. So, it appears it likely has finally about peaked in its progs. Therefore, based on Apr-Aug BoM runs, I’m now predicting that the actual monthly peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm Nino going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.