2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Jebman]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they.

Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.

As long as it's in the winter. I like my summers hot and dry to keep the mosquitoes away and to get a good view of the Perseids. This is the 40th anniversary of the first time I saw them, 4 nights in August 1986 and that was a whole week of nice clear early Fall kind of weather no haze and temperatures in the low 50s. No mosquitoes either!.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

Huh?

pretty sure I said “on a personal note”

of course it supports a point of view then, it’s called an op ed for a reason  

Don’t pin “tendency” on me though Like it’s some sort of general tact? I’m on the short list of most objective contributors. During analysis is a different written effort; I don’t play favorites between cold versus hot versus wet versus dry versus storm or no storm 

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

 

Keep rising

[bluewave]

Really impressive how much stronger the record WWBs were in June and July 2026 than 1997.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive how much stronger the record WWBs were in June and July 2026 than 1997.

 

Yea, I'm going through all of that stuff now for my update...crazy.

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm going through all of that stuff now for my update...crazy.

This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east.

 

I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store.

some clever research assistant - if hasn't already happened - will gain their master's thesis approval by demonstrating that there is a statistically significant occurrence of pattern return state that features ridging about 1/5th the distance around the Globe, downstream of these oceanic quasi or semi permanent warm regions ... and why.  Hint, the answer is NOT because the ocean is driving the pattern.  The impetus here being, there's something in the hemispheric scaffolding that's now different; among other aspect, also effecting the SST distributions over large total spacing.

It seems to me ...well, I'm curious to see, if that repositioning ( which I noticed myself just yesterday - ), means an end to the rich recurrent -EPOs us winter enthusiasts have enjoyed during these cold seasons since the 20teens.

Great.  

1, accelerating CC

2, on top of which there is a super warm ENSO blossoming

3, while there "might" be a signal that stems the N/A cold conveyor source.  

Forky's startin' to look like a genius. LOL   because he can apparently add.   like, (1+2+3)/3 ... ?   Not that anyone's disputing a warm winter - hell, even in the "cold" ones we seem to be closer to neutral (ave climo) - probably owing to the elephant in the room  ... But above and beyond that, the warmth could be extraordinary relative to, particularly should these aspects working together create synergy. 

I've been noticing a lot of climate -based tools with outlooks implicating -NAO ... The philosophical problem I have with using that in a seasonal outlook is a yes and no. 

The yes, there is an unarguable correlation between ENSO and NAO - particularly in Jan/Feb, that is true.   But the no, no NAO timing and placement can be defined using that correlation.

 

 

[stadiumwave]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.

 

Roundy has had some great discussion surrounding this over the summer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Roundy has had some great discussion surrounding this over the summer. 

I'm not in the camp that we are going to continue warming until infinity and beyond, so we'll see....just my hunch.

I love people who claim that their "opinions" are 110% grounded in objectivity-bullshit. The evidence is, or should be, however, there is an inherent element of subjectivity to the conceptualization that we arrive at given the facts at hand. No one definitively knows what our climate will look like in 100 years, and those who claim that they do are full of shit....whether or not they have any insight into said cognitive fecal matter is another issue entirely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

some clever research assistant - if hasn't already happened - will gain their master's theses approval by demonstrating that there is a statistically significant occurrence of pattern return state that features ridging about 1/5th the distance around the Globe, downstream of these oceanic quasi or semi permanent warm regions ... and why.  Hint, the answer is NOT because the ocean is driving the pattern.  The impetus here being, there's something in the hemispheric scaffolding that's now different.

It seems to me ...well, I'm curious to see, if that repositioning ( which I noticed myself just yesterday - ), means an end to the rich recurrent -EPOs us winter enthusiasts have enjoyed during these cold seasons since the 20teens.

Great.  

1, accelerating CC

2, on top of which there is a super warm ENSO blossoming

3, while there "might" be a signal that stems the N/A cold conveyor source.  

Forky's startin' to look like a genius. LOL   because he can apparently add.   like, (1+2+3)/3 ... ?   Not that anyone's disputing a warm winter - hell, even in the "cold" ones we seem to be closer to neutral (ave climo) - probably owing to the elephant in the room  ... But above and beyond that, the warmth could be extraordinary relative to, particularly should these aspects working together create synergy. 

I've been noticing a lot of climate -based tools with outlooks implicating -NAO ... The philosophical problem I have with using that in a seasonal outlook is a yes and no. 

The yes, there is an unarguable correlation between ENSO and NAO - particularly in Jan/Feb, that is true.   But the no, no NAO timing and placement can be defined using that correlation.

 

 

Yes, I have noted that the signal for -NAO to develop mid-season also favors some eastern bias. No guarantees...1972 was pre CC, didn't have an extremely hostile polar domain, and was still wretched.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the -NAO signs are more about a beacon of hope in a sea of winter-maelstrom, rather than a "silver-bullet" for the cold season...of it should be, anyway.

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not in the camp that we are going to continue warming until infinity and beyond, so we'll see....just my hunch.

I love people who claim that their "opinions" are 110% grounded in objectivity-bullshit. The evidence is, or should be, however, there is an inherent element of subjectivity to the conceptualization that we arrive at given the facts at hand. No one definitively knows what our climate will look like in 100 years, and those who claim that they do are full of shit....whether or not they have any insight into said cognitive fecal matter is another issue entirely.

 

Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. 

Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. 

Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. 

I think I relate to his philosophical approach.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. 

Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. 

It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere and planet tried to establish an equilibrium after the Super Nino. With some data showing earth briefly getting to 2C in 2027 (which is crazy) a pullback is possible, if not likely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere and planet tried to establish an equilibrium after the Super Nino. With some data showing earth briefly getting to 2C in 2027 (which is crazy) a pullback is possible, if not likely. 

The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth.

[EasternLI]

Looks like this latest WWB was the strongest of the summer. 

[BlizzardWx]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Bookmarked it! Looks great!

Just one question, any idea why the CANSIPS seasonal looks quite different than on tropical tidbits?

It's always possible a mistake was made, especially considering the massive amount of things I am working on to get it live. I will take a second pass on the cansips to see if I messed something up. 

[BlizzardWx]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, that is your site? Awesome job!

My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies.

Yep! I will put this on my list to get fixed. Appreciate the tip. I am having a lot of fun with it though like wishcasting a SSW 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, but was is equilibrium when d(C) is not only positive, but d(d(C)) at that.   The second derivative being the acceleration quotient.

That means that any return state is returning a higher level.  So if the idea is to return below the warmer state, that basis has changed higher.

Climate doesn't move that fast, no.  But as 2023 evinces ... the jolt by .5 and holding there, probably was a two-fold factorization of the Earth being behind schedule in warming - so a bit of a restoring force, while also having the longer term slope of changing positive.