2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking at that stuff... 

According to CPC most recent power point,

yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here:   https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C.   So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. 

I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3:

08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July! Going back to the start of records in 1950, there has never been a 1C+ rise within just one month. I‘m talking about any month in any ENSO. Will it actually warm that much in August??

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3:
08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
 The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July:

Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east

@Gawx Edit: The new OHC is up to +2.5C and climbing

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east

 Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61.
 Here are the largest on record:

 

0.85 Jan 1956

0.84 June 1968

0.78 Mar 1951

0.73 Feb 1976

0.71 May 2026

0.68 Nov 2009

0.68 Mar 2000

0.66 May 1967

0.61 Aug 1988

0.61 Jan 1975

0.60 Oct 1991

0.60 Jan 1953

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

@Typhoon Tip

[csnavywx]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

Yes, at first blush it's not a disaster for the SE. But last couple of strong Ninos makes it clear it may not be that cut and dry either. Either way, I'd bet on wet.

[csnavywx]

The large kelvin wave around 140W is probably the one to do most of the heavy lifting in a few weeks. Would expect subsurface anoms to increase past +10C here soon. Getting a little more tricky to find them when they get generated since the thermocline is pretty depressed already, but at least this one is still pretty visible.

[snowman19]

Region 1+2 is just going to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

1997 -1998 would be a case of the warmest departures for NYC occurring in January and February. The actual February average temperature was the warmest monthly temperature of the winter.

Dec…38.2°….+2.0

Jan…40.0°…..+8.6°

Feb…..40.6°….+7.0°

2023-2024 had the warmest departure in December and the 2nd warmest in February.

Dec…44.6°…..+5.5°

Jan….37.0°……+3.3°

Feb….40.1°……+4.2°
 

2015-2016 was the most extreme front-loaded super El Niño for warmth with +13.3 in December. 

Dec….50.8°…..+13.3°

Jan…..34.5°….+1.9°

Feb…..37.7°……+2.4°

[frontranger8]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

1997 -1998 would be a case of the warmest departures for NYC occurring in January and February. The actual February average temperature was the warmest monthly temperature of the winter.

Dec…38.2°….+2.0

Jan…40.0°…..+8.6°

Feb…..40.6°….+7.0°

2023-2024 had the warmest departure in December and the 2nd warmest in February.

Dec…44.6°…..+5.5°

Jan….37.0°……+3.3°

Feb….40.1°……+4.2°
 

2015-2016 was the most extreme front-loaded super El Niño for warmth with +13.3 in December. 

Dec….50.8°…..+13.3°

Jan…..34.5°….+1.9°

Feb…..37.7°……+2.4°

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

Jan/Feb look like the -WPO Nina pattern, but flipped. 

[GaWx]

The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

It probably helped that the Southeast had much colder winters back in that era. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I mean this goes into the discussion with @40/70 Benchmark that past super Ninos were not torches for the Northeast due to “clean forcing” as in, less competing Nina-like convection in the Maritime Continent. It used to be more of a torch signal for the upper Midwest. Only modern super Ninos have been torchy in the NE. 

Yea, that competing MC forcing has shifted that big ridge eastward, into se Canada and the northeastern CONUS.

[GaWx]

On 7/10/2026 at 11:18 AM, GaWx said:

 
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:

 In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!

 How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?

-100 days in 1998

-72 days in 1997

-66 days in 2015

-65 days in 2023

-62 days and counting 2026

 Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?

How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, roardog said:

How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?

 We’ll likely exceed 1997’s 72 days, which would put it as 2nd longest on record (back to 1991). But #1 (from 1998) is way up at 100 days. I have no idea if it will get that high. With that still being 33 days away, it would be quite awhile before I could even try to forecast whether or not it will be reached. Since that would be quite the accomplishment, I feel chances are well under 50% as of now. Let’s see how things go.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 straight days under -34 is pretty impressive

16 Jul 2026	1013.27	1018.25	-36.50	-25.58	-18.73
15 Jul 2026	1012.10	1017.65	-40.01	-24.45	-18.16
14 Jul 2026	1011.36	1016.35	-36.56	-23.53	-17.62
13 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.10	-34.53	-23.20	-17.20
12 Jul 2026	1009.89	1015.20	-38.53	-23.21	-16.92

 

It looks like the last time the 30-day was below -30 was 1983. We are -25.58

Since 1905 30 day has only hit -30 twice. 4x since 1876.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

This was a textbook frontloaded warm/backloaded cold winter. If we continued this into spring, I believe April 1983 was the coldest April on record CONUS. That one had a major freeze/snow event in the Eastern half of the country (impacting the midwest on the 13th-16th, and North Carolina northward on the 19th-22nd).

[Jebman]

Just for shits and giggles: How strong can El Nino get? Can it reach 7 degrees Celsius above the ENSO benchmark, or whatever it is called? I want a 15 degree Celsius Brobdingnagian Nino!!!!!!

Why? Because huge amounts of rain is so much fun!

I am a rain weenie, lol!

For the record: We ended up with 5.9 inches in this storm cycle, I call the Mid July 2026 Storm Cycle. I might start naming the cycles, because we will have so many of them in this Uber Nino! We are now up to 34.3 inches of rain on the year! Normal FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR is 30.0.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This was a textbook frontloaded warm/backloaded cold winter. If we continued this into spring, I believe April 1983 was the coldest April on record CONUS. That one had a major freeze/snow event in the Eastern half of the country (impacting the midwest on the 13th-16th, and North Carolina northward on the 19th-22nd).

February 11 1983 Dale City got to enjoy 17 inches of fresh snow! I remember jebwalking in it to my immense delight!

[GaWx]

On 7/14/2026 at 4:26 PM, GaWx said:

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[snowman19]

As suspected, given the super El Niño/++PMM, the EPAC tropical cyclone season is shaping up to be a blockbuster

In other news, even the notoriously too cool CDAS daily has region 1+2 at almost +3.5C now



And it has region 3.4 on the verge of +2.0C

[LakePaste25]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As suspected, given the super El Niño/++PMM, the EPAC tropical cyclone season is shaping up to be a blockbuster

 

 

In other news, even the notoriously too cool CDAS daily has region 1+2 at almost +3.5C now



And it has region 3.4 on the verge of +2.0C

 

Entire basin looks pretty favorable for development into August. Makes sense with the Hadley cell out in the central pacific. While I think the Eastern Pacific has the highest chance of above normal ACE due to the +PMM you mentioned, I think the basin as a whole has a chance to be above normal in all 3 regions. 

 

[GaWx]

The CFS AAM at this site FINALLY updated for the 1st time in 2 weeks!

Prior run from July 3rd:

 New one from today: +2 now but progged on 7/25 to drop to +1 vs the ~+2.2 mean on old run; progged mean doesn’t rise back to +2 til Aug 4th. Old run mean for Aug 4th was way up >+3. All of this is added evidence of a significant + bias out >2 weeks. Regardless, +AAM in full control, which is continued evidence of an intact steadily strengthening Nino:

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Entire basin looks pretty favorable for development into August. Makes sense with the Hadley cell out in the central pacific. While I think the Eastern Pacific has the highest chance of above normal ACE due to the +PMM you mentioned, I think the basin as a whole has a chance to be above normal in all 3 regions. 
 

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

[LakePaste25]

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link?

384hr 12z GEFS

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

Thats not going to ever happen with the EWB off SA.These winds are killing KW from getting that far east and the MJO should go back into the WP,if anything you might see an expansion  from downwelling but 10-12/Not going to happen

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link?

384hr 12z GEFS

They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/16/2026 at 10:01 AM, GaWx said:

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

 

On 7/16/2026 at 9:37 AM, csnavywx said:

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

Interesting to see a map of 1877-78. I knew the core of warmth was in the upper midwest, because while it was certainly a mild winter at Detroit, it wasnt nearly as extreme as in Minneapolis.

Ive mentioned it before, but the 1875-1882 period had a very odd "every other year" pattern locally of very cold winter followed by very mild winter. 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80 & 1881-82 were all warm winters overall. I have no idea how ENSO played into it outside of 1877-78.

1877-78 at Detroit (using present-day departures):

Nov: 39.2F (-2.0F)....Snow 1.0" (-0.9")
Dec: 38.1F (+6.8F)....Snow 1.9" (-7.0")
Jan: 27.3F (+1.5F)….Snow 23.1” (+9.1”)
Feb: 29.2F (+1.2F)….Snow 17.4” (+4.9”)
Mar: 41.3F (+4.1F)…Snow M (est 1-2"))
Apr: 53.4F (+4.5F)…Snow 0 (-1.5”)

Huge storm Jan 31st (14.8"). 

The winter followed a somewhat similar path as other strong Ninos in that there were some very good winter blasts but the warmth won out. And realistically, thats the best formula to run a strong Nino in the north. You want that roller coaster up and down, helps with some good storms and assures you get some arctic blasts with the warm spells. Way better than mundane, stagnant 40s every day.