Predict (and discuss) the cold and snow includes a contest (for Feb 7-9)

[Roger Smith]

This thread may now also be used to discuss the forthcoming light snow and very cold event starting Friday night and lasting into Monday. The first discussion as such begins in the thread dated Thursday Feb 5th at around 4 p.m. ... continue to enter the contest if you wish, to the deadline 06z Saturday. 

 

CONTEST

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. 

I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. 

Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days.

Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late).  My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not. 

If you do edit your post, kindly indicate a time (EST or z) when you last did that, for order of entry considerations. I won't otherwise know you've edited your entry.

Your template if you want to use it

MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___"

Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry.

MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). 

but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. 

DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). 

Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. 

___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. 

I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. 

Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days.

Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late).  My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not. 

Your template if you want to use it

MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___"

Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry.

MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). 

but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. 

DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). 

Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. 

___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total. 

MAX 17F ... MIN  6F ... SNOW  0.2"

[coastalplainsnowman]

Some day we should do Super Bowl - type boxes with Max Temp and Min Temp on the axes.

Could do it on Super Bowl Sunday itself.

Split the day into quarters.

Max and Min temp between  Midnight to 6AM, 6:01 - Noon, 12:01 PM - 6PM, and 6:01PM to Midnight.

 

Anyway, 19 / 9 with 0.75” snow

[SACRUS]

 

Max 20f ... Min 5f ... Snow : 0.4

[[email protected]]

Max 20, Min 9.

[Prue11]

Max 21 

min 9

snow trace 

[IYC77]

Max 18
Min 7
Snow 0.8

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk

[NorthShoreWx]

 

Max 16⁰ ... Min 6⁰ ... Snow : 0.4"

[wxallannj]

Max 21   min 8     Snow:  0.2"

[TriPol]

Max 18f ... Min -1f ... Snow : 1.3"

[dmillz25]

Max- 19

Min- 5

Snow-0.7”

[Stormlover74]

Max 19

Min 7

Snow .4

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Max 17°

Min   3°

Snow 1.4 inches 

 

[Rwes1]

Max 22°

Min 8°

Snow .10”

[bkviking]

Max: 17°

Min: 4°

snow: .7”

[Rjay]

Tony's guess

Max 17

Min 2

0.6 inches of snow

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

Max 24°

Min 8°

Snow 0.5”

[Roger Smith]

Guidance still shows light snow reaching the NYC area just before the end of the calendar day Friday so there could be 0.1" of your snow falling before the contest period but it still looks like whatever may fall will start falling just as the contest period opens. Whether any is added late Monday into Tuesday now looks a bit dubious. As to temperatures, would say there is no chance for a really low max for Saturday because the very cold air is going to filter in to some extent as a norlun type of system develops over New England after 06z Saturday. I could imagine temperatures being around 30F at midnight Friday, falling to low 20s overnight and never recovering all day, in the teens, then falling to lowest value Sunday morning and so the big question would be, any significant warm advection late Sunday or does the temperature stay low until past midnight when perhaps it might rise a bit towards Monday morning? I am amending my guess from 14,4 to 16,4 after considering these options. Same snowfall of 0.6" (my entry is always considered last entry so anyone who ties me on these values will be ahead). 

[Roger Smith]

The lowest thickness values of 505 dm are over NYC around 06z Sunday (0100h EST Sunday) after which they slowly increase. It could be one of those nights in rural areas where temperatures tank in the evening, hit rock bottom after midnight then waver or rise slightly towards dawn. In rural areas of NJ and se NY could see -10 F or lower. The air mass waiting to come south is not brutally cold, it is currently -30F in western Nunavut (Ennadai Lake, Rankin Inlet) to -35 C at Cambridge Bay. But there's a pool of -35 C over northern Quebec that will be pulled into the circulation without having to cross any bodies of water to get to western New England or the Hudson valley. Great Lakes influence will be modified too, as Lake Erie is frozen over in many areas, and Lakes Huron and Ontario have near-freezing water temps and some ice cover too. Hudson and James Bay are of course frozen now but even so air crossing ice covered water can pick up slight amounts of heat if snow cover on that ice is not overly deep.  

[snowman19]

Max: 21

Min: 2

Snow: 0.5

[Roger Smith]

 

This early list will provide contest entrants with a faster way to review entries ... if you edit one of these, your order of entry will change.

Entries are still welcome until deadline of 0100h Saturday (06z) or just after midnight Friday. 

Contest entries to 02z Friday February 6th

listed in order of coldest max to warmest max, then coldest min to warmest min within each group

FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN ___ snow

Roger Smith (xx) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 0.6"

Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 0.4"

CPcantmeasuresnow (12) ________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 1.4"

Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 0.6"

bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 0.7"

DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) ______________________ 17 ___ 6 _____ 0.2"

TriPol ( 9 ) ________________________________ 18 ___-1 _____ 1.3"

IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________ 18 ___ 7 _____ 0.8"

dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 0.7"

Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 0.4"

coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 0.75"

SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 0.4"

[email protected] ( 4 ) ___________ 20 ___ 9 _____ -- --

snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 0.5"

wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 0.2"

Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ Tr

Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 0.1"

PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 0.5"

___________________________-

Contest rules are in the original post.