CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 2 years ago a week from now…we had that CT Special that was supposed to bury the whole area, but then shit the bed 24 hrs before, and then came back to bury CT…and screw pretty much everybody else. Eff that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Box adjusted, appropriately imo... This is pretty close to HREF... some guidance had another max in south RI but not enough support: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Eff that one. That's to nice to that one. Shoot it into the sun. I remember sitting under heavy echoes with nothing coming out of the sky, laughing/crying at all the schools/events/workplaces which were canceled 36h in advance. In particular the schools which closed on Sunday evening for Tuesday, or, worse, on Monday morning after it became quite clear that the storm was going to bust hard. A big, late enough shift that the BOX forecaster was surprised in the AFD. And this forum didn't even have time to make a toaster run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Box adjusted, appropriately imo... This is pretty close to HREF... some guidance had another max in south RI but not enough support: NAMs give me .39 qpf that is 5 to 7 Euro and EPS HRRR don't know what else they need 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Spaizzo said: Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago . 2015 Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago . 1/7/11 which happened to be a Friday at rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago . It was Jan 2011…got 10” here. Was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2015 Jan No 2011 Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAMs give me .39 qpf that is 5 to 7 Looks like King Complainer in Taunton does quite ok…as we knew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, WinterWolf said: It was Jan 2011…got 10” here. Was awesome. Thanks while I always hold out hope in these thanks to that. I was told today it never happened that drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago . https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-2011 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Both 18z NAMs held fairely steady though the 3k reduced the wildness in Essex county and maybe got a touch jucier in metrowest/central MA. But the same idea...still the best shot at warning is North shore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18 lz HRRR went ham here but it looks like the nam also likes Rhode Island to Worcester too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAMs give me .39 qpf that is 5 to 7 Euro and EPS HRRR don't know what else they need 12z GFS and RGEM also like RI, soundings there looked good too They're probably accounting for ocean enhancement for higher confidence to warning amounts North Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Eff that one. Lol I knew you’d chime in…boned you bad. It was a CT Crusher that Eff’d everybody else. I know that feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 19 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: Thanks while I always hold out hope in these thanks to that. I was told today it never happened that drastically. It did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Thinking my parents in Beverly have a good chance to see 6+. Feel pretty good about my spot too tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 27 minutes ago, ariof said: That's to nice to that one. Shoot it into the sun. I remember sitting under heavy echoes with nothing coming out of the sky, laughing/crying at all the schools/events/workplaces which were canceled 36h in advance. In particular the schools which closed on Sunday evening for Tuesday, or, worse, on Monday morning after it became quite clear that the storm was going to bust hard. A big, late enough shift that the BOX forecaster was surprised in the AFD. And this forum didn't even have time to make a toaster run. It was gonna bust hard…then came back for CT and gave central areas 12-16”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: Thinking my parents in Beverly have a good chance to see 6+. Feel pretty good about my spot too tbh BVY up to Salem, Manchester-by-the-sea, and Cape Ann could be ground zero. These are fickle so no guarantees, but those spots have done very well before on IVT/Norlun-esque setups. These soundings are excellent too for those near the coast with those steep low level lapse rates being even more enhanced. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Took some measurements this afternoon ahead of the snow. 14-15” on average around the yard. Hopefully not too much blowing tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: BVY up to Salem, Manchester-by-the-sea, and Cape Ann could be ground zero. These are fickle so no guarantees, but those spots have done very well before on IVT/Norlun-esque setups. These soundings are excellent too for those near the coast with those steep low level lapse rates being even more enhanced. Should I be concerned about blowing snow "during" the event or after when the arctic air moves in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Nice AFD, not a mundane setup: -AO and -NAO teleconnections yielding a very suppressed polar jet this period, with storm track well south of New England. However, this supports a potent, high latitude closed low to descend from James Bay into New England this weekend. This feature will be accompanied by an arctic front Sat, which will yield a complex snow event for SNE. This vigorous closed low induces cyclogenesis well southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark Sat. However, such strong forcing for ascent results in an inverted/Norlun trough from the offshore low extending northwest into SNE Sat. This will result in narrow bands of snow Sat moving west to east across CT/MA/RI. Model data reveals a combination of steep low level lapse rates (up to 9C/km in 0-2 km layer), deep saturated layer, strong convergence and at least modest omega in the snow growth region, will yield a 2- 4 hr period of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times, from late Sat morning into the afternoon. The snow squall parameter ramps up rapidly between 18-22z across eastern MA Sat afternoon. 12z NAM bufkit for KBVY, indicates up to 20 u/bars of lift in the -10C to - 15C layer 15z-18z. This should yield favorable SLR and low vsbys. This is also supported by HREF offering 30-50% probs of hourly snowfall rates exceeding 1" and 20-30% for greater than 2" per hour, with these high rates focused across eastern MA westward into RI and the Worcester Hills. Duration of strong lift, deep saturation and steep low level lapse rates is brief (2-4 hr window) and this will limit accumulations to mainly 2 to 4 inches, with highest amounts across RI and central-eastern MA. This boundary becomes more enhanced as it enters eastern MA, with multiple models generating over 0.50 inches of qpf across Essex county, with some ocean effect enhancement contributing to the higher totals. In addition, the 13z NBM (v5.0) snow probs have 20- 30% probs of 8+ inches across Essex county, esp the Cape Ann area, and 50% prob of 6+ inches of snow. Given multiple models have strong low level convergence, steep low level lapse rates, a deep saturated layer and at least modest forcing for ascent in the snow growth region, will hoist a small winter storm watch area for Essex county. Snowfall projections here will be for 4-8", with even a low prob of isolated higher amounts pending the evolution of this mesoscale snow band associated with the inverted/Norlun trough. Keep in mind, these mesoscale snow bands are very difficult to forecast and this is a situation where snowfall amounts can vary greatly over short distance. Thus, continue to check back and monitor our updated forecast. For the remainder of coastal eastern MA, given the OES component, isolated amounts of up to 6 inches is possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Took some meat this afternoon ahead of the snow. 14-15” on average around the yard. Hopefully not too much blowing tomorrow night I'm hoping for a good amount.of drifting when the winds kick in.. The snow falling now is pure powder.. dusting so far and light snow continues 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm hoping for a good amount.of drifting when the winds kick in.. The snow falling now is pure powder.. dusting so far and light snow continues I was wondering if that was reaching the ground . Nothing doing here yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I love it when the wind is cranking the snow around out there. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Someone in Gloucester or Rockport is going to get lucky enough and probably pull off 8-9". Someone is going to be pulling off 3-4" per hour rates for a time with thunder/lightning going on. This signal has just been way too consistent and across multiple forecast models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Back to -SN in Kendall Square. VIS to the west is unlimited, but to the east is about 3SM. Ground slightly whitened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Gentle dendies floating down with sun. This stuff pulsates so I expect it to weaken some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gentle dendies floating down with sun. This stuff pulsates so I expect it to weaken some. Been snowing most of the day but lightly.. Sun is just strong enough so only got a dusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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