Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

2 years ago a week from now…we had that CT Special that was supposed to bury the whole area, but then shit the bed 24 hrs before, and then came back to bury CT…and screw pretty much everybody else. 

Eff that one.

[wxsniss]

Box adjusted, appropriately imo...

This is pretty close to HREF... some guidance had another max in south RI but not enough support:

[Spaizzo]

Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago


.

[ariof]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Eff that one.

That's to nice to that one. Shoot it into the sun.

I remember sitting under heavy echoes with nothing coming out of the sky, laughing/crying at all the schools/events/workplaces which were canceled 36h in advance. In particular the schools which closed on Sunday evening for Tuesday, or, worse, on Monday morning after it became quite clear that the storm was going to bust hard. A big, late enough shift that the BOX forecaster was surprised in the AFD. And this forum didn't even have time to make a toaster run.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Box adjusted, appropriately imo...

This is pretty close to HREF... some guidance had another max in south RI but not enough support:

NAMs give me .39 qpf that is 5 to 7 Euro and EPS HRRR don't know what else they need 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Spaizzo said:

Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago


.

2015 Jan 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago


.

1/7/11 which happened to be a Friday at rush hour

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago


.

It was Jan 2011…got 10” here. Was awesome. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2015 Jan 

No 2011 Steve.  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAMs give me .39 qpf that is 5 to 7

Looks like King Complainer in Taunton does quite ok…as we knew. 

[Spaizzo]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It was Jan 2011…got 10” here. Was awesome. 

Thanks while I always hold out hope in these thanks to that. I was told today it never happened that drastically. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Now heres a vague question. Anyone remember the inverted trough or norlun event in Western CT? Our inch was like 8? It was quite a bit ago


.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-2011

[ORH_wxman]

Both 18z NAMs held fairely steady though the 3k reduced the wildness in Essex county and maybe got a touch jucier in metrowest/central MA. But the same idea...still the best shot at warning is North shore. 

[CoastalWx]

18 lz HRRR went ham here but it looks like the nam also likes Rhode Island to Worcester too.

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAMs give me .39 qpf that is 5 to 7 Euro and EPS HRRR don't know what else they need 

12z GFS and RGEM also like RI, soundings there looked good too

They're probably accounting for ocean enhancement for higher confidence to warning amounts North Shore

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eff that one.

Lol I knew you’d chime in…boned you bad. It was a CT Crusher that Eff’d everybody else. I know that feeling. 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Thanks while I always hold out hope in these thanks to that. I was told today it never happened that drastically. 

It did. 

[MuddyWx]

Thinking my parents in Beverly have a good chance to see 6+. Feel pretty good about my spot too tbh

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, ariof said:

That's to nice to that one. Shoot it into the sun.

I remember sitting under heavy echoes with nothing coming out of the sky, laughing/crying at all the schools/events/workplaces which were canceled 36h in advance. In particular the schools which closed on Sunday evening for Tuesday, or, worse, on Monday morning after it became quite clear that the storm was going to bust hard. A big, late enough shift that the BOX forecaster was surprised in the AFD. And this forum didn't even have time to make a toaster run.

It was gonna bust hard…then came back for CT and gave central areas 12-16”. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Thinking my parents in Beverly have a good chance to see 6+. Feel pretty good about my spot too tbh

BVY up to Salem, Manchester-by-the-sea, and Cape Ann could be ground zero. These are fickle so no guarantees, but those spots have done very well before on IVT/Norlun-esque setups. These soundings are excellent too for those near the coast with those steep low level lapse rates being even more enhanced. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Took some measurements this afternoon ahead of the snow. 14-15” on average around the yard. Hopefully not too much blowing tomorrow night 

[512high]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

BVY up to Salem, Manchester-by-the-sea, and Cape Ann could be ground zero. These are fickle so no guarantees, but those spots have done very well before on IVT/Norlun-esque setups. These soundings are excellent too for those near the coast with those steep low level lapse rates being even more enhanced. 

Should I be concerned about blowing snow "during" the event or after when the arctic air moves in?

[wxsniss]

Nice AFD, not a mundane setup:

-AO and -NAO teleconnections yielding a very suppressed polar jet
this period, with storm track well south of New England. However,
this supports a potent, high latitude closed low to descend from
James Bay into New England this weekend. This feature will be
accompanied by an arctic front Sat, which will yield a complex snow
event for SNE. This vigorous closed low induces cyclogenesis well
southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark Sat. However, such strong forcing
for ascent results in an inverted/Norlun trough from the offshore
low extending northwest into SNE Sat. This will result in narrow
bands of snow Sat moving west to east across CT/MA/RI.

Model data reveals a combination of steep low level lapse rates (up
to 9C/km in 0-2 km layer), deep saturated layer, strong convergence
and at least modest omega in the snow growth region, will yield a 2-
4 hr period of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times, from late
Sat morning into the afternoon. The snow squall parameter ramps up
rapidly between 18-22z across eastern MA Sat afternoon. 12z NAM
bufkit for KBVY, indicates up to 20 u/bars of lift in the -10C to -
15C layer 15z-18z. This should yield favorable SLR and low vsbys.
This is also supported by HREF offering 30-50% probs of hourly
snowfall rates exceeding 1" and 20-30% for greater than 2" per hour,
with these high rates focused across eastern MA westward into RI and
the Worcester Hills. Duration of strong lift, deep saturation and
steep low level lapse rates is brief (2-4 hr window) and this will
limit accumulations to mainly 2 to 4 inches, with highest amounts
across RI and central-eastern MA.

This boundary becomes more enhanced as it enters eastern MA, with
multiple models generating over 0.50 inches of qpf across Essex
county, with some ocean effect enhancement contributing to the
higher totals. In addition, the 13z NBM (v5.0) snow probs have 20-
30% probs of 8+ inches across Essex county, esp the Cape Ann area,
and 50% prob of 6+ inches of snow. Given multiple models have strong
low level convergence, steep low level lapse rates, a deep saturated
layer and at least modest forcing for ascent in the snow growth
region, will hoist a small winter storm watch area for Essex county.
Snowfall projections here will be for 4-8", with even a low prob of
isolated higher amounts pending the evolution of this mesoscale snow
band associated with the inverted/Norlun trough. Keep in mind, these
mesoscale snow bands are very difficult to forecast and this is a
situation where snowfall amounts can vary greatly over short
distance. Thus, continue to check back and monitor our updated
forecast. For the remainder of coastal eastern MA, given the OES
component, isolated amounts of up to 6 inches is possible.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Took some meat this afternoon ahead of the snow. 14-15” on average around the yard. Hopefully not too much blowing tomorrow night 

I'm hoping for a  good amount.of drifting when the winds kick in..  The snow falling now is pure powder.. dusting so far and light snow continues 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm hoping for a  good amount.of drifting when the winds kick in..  The snow falling now is pure powder.. dusting so far and light snow continues 

I was wondering if that was reaching the ground . Nothing doing here yet 

[Connecticut Appleman]

I love it when the wind is cranking the snow around out there.  Bring it!

[weatherwiz]

Someone in Gloucester or Rockport is going to get lucky enough and probably pull off 8-9".  Someone is going to be pulling off 3-4" per hour rates for a time with thunder/lightning going on. This signal has just been way too consistent and across multiple forecast models. 

[ariof]

Back to -SN in Kendall Square.

VIS to the west is unlimited, but to the east is about 3SM. Ground slightly whitened.

[CoastalWx]

Gentle dendies floating down with sun. This stuff pulsates so I expect it to weaken some.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gentle dendies floating down with sun. This stuff pulsates so I expect it to weaken some.

Been snowing most of the day but lightly.. Sun is just strong enough so only got a dusting