February 2026

[Carvers Gap]

Here are the winter monthly averages for TRI(so far):

January -1.6F...snow 8.6 which is +5.6 AN

December +0.7F...snow 0.9 which was -0.7 BN

February (which will certainly modify some with WELCOMED warmed temps!  bring it on) as of 2/4:  -17.4F...snow is +0.4 so far

February had the coldest day(regardless of month) since 2015 according to David Boyd of WCYB along w/ two record lows on Feb 1st and 2nd.  February 1st was -27.8 BN and Feb 2nd was -28.4 BN.  There are portions of lakes frozen solid right now which rarely freeze over in NE TN.  There have been three record lows set in the 2000s at TRI....February 2026 now holds two of those three record lows. 

We have had back-to-back winter storms during the past two weekends...an ice storm and snow storm.  It snowed again last night.  I would guess MBY probably has had about 12" of snow so far this winter.  Lots of nickel and dime stuff in addition to the big storm.  

And yes, temps after Christmas were warm, but oddly TRI didn't set a single record high here, but again....the temps for both December and January will average out BN for both months combined at TRI.  With the exception of just a few days, TRI has been BN since Jan 11. This has been an impressive cold spell.  

[Mr Bob]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Agreed. Even expanding that out a bit, the period from December 20th to January 10th was the 2nd warmest on record at Tri-Cities Airport and 3rd warmest at Knoxville (exceeded only by a couple of questionable recordings from the 19th century - it was more than 3F warmer than any year since 1890). Yes, it's been very cold since mid-January, but I don't know why some feel the need to carry on with this myth that there was no torch around the Holidays / New Year. The 3-week period centered around New Year's was about as warm as it gets in the Tennessee Valley.

Tri-Cities

Knoxville

 

Thanks for the in depth stats. I think everyone agrees there was a warm period over the holidays, but this is a forward looking thread so let’s take it easy on the past details.  

[Carvers Gap]

Portions of E TN mountain counties, some areas of SW VA, and mountain counties of SE KY are under a winter weather advisory for tomorrow as we are set to see what is hopefully the last cold shot for a bit.  I need a break from the cold, and you won't hear that very often from me.  We have just recently been BN(sometimes severely so) during our coldest climo of the year.  TRI is at roughly 10" of snow so far since Jan 11th.  Places around Nashville are still without power from the ice storm almost two weeks ago.  Road crews and schools need a break.  I know some places in NE TN have run out of salt.  

I would guess Feb will end up possibly AN due to the thaw next week, and the month being a short month.  I had a warmer Feb as part of my winter forecast back in June - so part of me hopes it is slightly AN.  However, the last ten days of the month could return to colder temperatures which might last into the well into March...However, as Jeff notes in the banter(?) thread, I don't think severe is out of the question.  Often in our forum, severe weather and winter weather can coexist in the month of March.  

[Carvers Gap]

MRX graphics for the weekend....

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the photo of S Holston Lake.  A picture is worth a thousand words.... It not uncommon for high elevation lakes to freeze during cold winters in NE TN.  It is quite uncommon for TVA lakes in NE TN to have that much ice in my experience.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

And to reference my earlier post about this being the coldest day at TRI since 2015...

 

 

[John1122]

Freezing fog after the snow last night produced some scenic views this afternoon as I headed off the mountain and back to the basketball tournament. High today was only 31. School has been out two weeks here and the lake is frozen. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, Mr Bob said:

Thanks for the in depth stats. I think everyone agrees there was a warm period over the holidays, but this is a forward looking thread so let’s take it easy on the past details.  

You're welcome, Bob. I didn't bring it up. Just think we should be accurate if we're going to claim the forecasts were wrong for that period. We have a lot of weather forecasters and meteorologists on here, and it's bad enough to be slammed for a missed forecast, let alone forecasts that were correct.

[midwoodian]

Ice storm started as a heavy rain outlook from CPC. Let's not do that again! Instead, how about severe weather?

TWC sniffing something out lol. Bet it’s gone in the forecast tomorrow.




.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You're welcome, Bob. I didn't bring it up. Just think we should be accurate if we're going to claim the forecasts were wrong for that period. We have a lot of weather forecasters and meteorologists on here, and it's bad enough to be slammed for a missed forecast, let alone forecasts that were correct.

Haha.  Oh get a grip.  This is a message board...not a scientific paper. And honestly, this forum is about as accurate as one can find on AmWx, and a lot less whiny than most places - but I bet you know that already.  @Holston_River_Rambleris a great poster.  You failed to mention both January and December (when averaged together) will be BN for temps at TRI w/ AN snowfall.  Talk about misleading and only telling part of the story.  That is cherrypicking on your part.   Plus, you are in the February thread trying to discuss stuff from almost two months ago about a region I am assuming(not sure to be honest) that you are not a part of.  We don't need a hall monitor from another forum.  Trust me, Holston and Mr Bob are a lot more polite than I would have been.  You are just in here stirring the sh!t IMHO.  

[John1122]

The 3k NAM is dropping 2 inches over my area Friday night. Not surprisingly, I'm going to Chattanooga for the Super Bowl this weekend. Debating on whether to leave tomorrow or Saturday. 

[Mr Bob]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You're welcome, Bob. I didn't bring it up. Just think we should be accurate if we're going to claim the forecasts were wrong for that period. We have a lot of weather forecasters and meteorologists on here, and it's bad enough to be slammed for a missed forecast, let alone forecasts that were correct.

Read the room. It’s not difficult.  You are not a regular contributor in here so dropping in for this stuff out of the blue is the wrong vibe.  

[John1122]

I finished +1 for November, but with 2 inches of snow. 

-1 for December and -3 for January. 

It's been a brutal winter stretch here with two significant winter storms and multiple small events. Even with BN precip/drought, after last night, I've recorded 17 inches of snow since November along with 1/2 inch of sleet and near a half inch of ice.  

If you look back on winters here, there are often extremes within them. December of '84 was very warm, similar to this late December period, and then we had January of '85. 

[jaxjagman]

39 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I finished +1 for November, but with 2 inches of snow. 

-1 for December and -3 for January. 

It's been a brutal winter stretch here with two significant winter storms and multiple small events. Even with BN precip/drought, after last night, I've recorded 17 inches of snow since November along with 1/2 inch of sleet and near a half inch of ice.  

If you look back on winters here, there are often extremes within them. December of '84 was very warm, similar to this late December period, and then we had January of '85. 

Been a crappie winter win here thus far for us,unless you get into ice storms.

Per Nashville in Jan.1.4" SN,that was before the ice storm and then a dusting after the ZR finally ended,that was the extent to our snow this winter other than token flakes at times which didnt add up to anything

Temps were 2.4 BN.Last Jan we was 6.3 BN

[John1122]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Been a crappie winter win here thus far for us,unless you get into ice storms.

Per Nashville in Jan.1.4" SN,that was before the ice storm and then a dusting after the ZR finally ended,that was the extent to our snow this winter other than token flakes at times which didnt add up to anything

Temps were 2.4 BN.Last Jan we was 6.3 BN

With the amount of cold we've had at times since November, this would normally have been a 35-40 inch snow winter here. So it's definitely not been as good as it could have been from a frozen precipitation stand point for most of the state. 100 miles north in Kentucky, they're probably at 40+ inches this winter. 

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, John1122 said:

With the amount of cold we've had at times since November, this would normally have been a 35-40 inch snow winter here. So it's definitely not been as good as it could have been from a frozen precipitation stand point for most of the state. 100 miles north in Kentucky, they're probably at 40+ inches this winter. 

 

Yes,its been like that for whatever reasons North of 1-40 seemingly the last couple decades,its the battle ground and we 90% of the time,lose

[BlunderStorm]

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the photo of S Holston Lake.  A picture is worth a thousand words.... It not uncommon for high elevation lakes to freeze during cold winters in NE TN.  It is quite uncommon for TVA lakes in NE TN to have that much ice in my experience.

 

 

That reminds me, I should take some more shots of the Clinch before the warm up. It will be the most iced I have seen it since Feb 2015 (that's what got me first lurking on amwx) where in select portions it wholly froze over at the bends. Maybe some good shot opportunities on Lake Witten or Hayters Gap too if they've been plowed. I'd try Hidden Valley or Laurel Bed but that's probably an insurance premium nuke if I've seen one haha.

[Coach B]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

With the amount of cold we've had at times since November, this would normally have been a 35-40 inch snow winter here. So it's definitely not been as good as it could have been from a frozen precipitation stand point for most of the state. 100 miles north in Kentucky, they're probably at 40+ inches this winter. 

While there is certainly time left, many of us missed a golden opportunity to have a banger of a season. Places in all direction are well above normal. 

 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Not used to seeing this forum get heated! Yes there was a warm stretch for a few weeks around the holidays but it’s been cold and dry for the most part this winter. It would have been nice to have a little more moisture during this cold phase but there’s more chances coming.

[Carvers Gap]

That map is exactly why predicting snow in a seasonal forecast is very difficult.  Temps and precip patterns are generally easier.  During La Nina, the west end of the state normally finds its way into snowfall.  During weak La Nina's w/ a -QBO, the east end of the state often finds its way into normal snowfall(or above) with very cold temps.  Ice hit the middle of the state.  Whether we like the frozen precip types or not....the state has seen plenty of frozen precip.  Many places are out of salt.  Been a pretty brutal stretch of winter for most in the forum(not all).

What has been interesting this winter is to see the MJO really not play a bigger role.  HL blocking and the EPO have ruled the roost so far.  The big losers in the snow sweepstakes(and this can flip on a dime) so far have been portions of the Sierra Nevada and a good portion of the Rockies.  Canada actually has done well north of Seattle.  I bet if one pulled out a drought map, that map above would likely match it.  Drought begets drought.  Middle TN had drought for a good part of summer and fall.  

NE TN finally found some snow after several winters of watching others get snow, and a lot of it.  We didn't experience the long term drought which others have had.   We had some rain this fall, and that is often a harbinger of where snow will fall during winter.

I do think we are slowly going to climb out of this pattern(trough east...ridge west) as February progress.  I think we see warm weather next week(though maybe less warm than originally modeled), and then maybe one last parting cold shot(and maybe very cold) at the end of February and into early March.  Modeling has this to some degree, and LC has mentioned it as well (has the hot hand).  The Euro Weeklies are not warm for March...and many of us will be ready for spring.  LC says the pattern should flip pretty quickly during March to warm.  The Weeklies aren't quite on board with that yet.

[iluvsnow]

The Climate Changer gets his kicks going from forum to forum to spread his CC crap. Just ignore him. Other forums know him for what he is.

[BlunderStorm]

Radar presentation from the clipper looks quite healthy. Wonder if John is seeing anything. It's virga here for now though relative humidity is 82% imby. I'll move to obs if desired. This thread is very open ended but I don't want to bury pattern discussion.

[nrgjeff]

Welcome to the land of Nada this weekend. You're a week late, ha! 

12 hours ago, John1122 said:

The 3k NAM is dropping 2 inches over my area Friday night. Not surprisingly, I'm going to Chattanooga for the Super Bowl this weekend. Debating on whether to leave tomorrow or Saturday. 

Yea the clipper has some gumption on clouds physics. 

Separately, we need to re-open Politics over in Off-Topic to let off some steam. Better there than here!

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Welcome to the land of Nada this weekend. You're a week late, ha! 

Yea the clipper has some gumption on clouds physics. 

Separately, we need to re-open Politics over in Off-Topic to let off some steam. Better there than here!

I noticed it's had a convective look on modeling for days now.

[Matthew70]

11 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

 

Yes,its been like that for whatever reasons North of 1-40 seemingly the last couple decades,its the battle ground and we 90% of the time,lose

The ole I40 dividing line.  Very true Jax to this winter for middle TN has been a frustrating & crappy one.  The temps to me have been great.  Just the snow dept. sucked. Hard to believe January last year was so much colder than this January.  

[John1122]

28 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Radar presentation from the clipper looks quite healthy. Wonder if John is seeing anything. It's virga here for now though relative humidity is 82% imby. I'll move to obs if desired. This thread is very open ended but I don't want to bury pattern discussion.

36 degrees and virga here. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Already got some flurries in Kingsport. 

[BlunderStorm]

Column just saturated. 31F with DP of 26 and visibility of 3 miles dropping quickly. Classic nickels and dimes, the everymans snow, the snow that comes to mind when you think of snow lol.

Edit: Visibility 5 minutes later dropped under half a mile and snow is coming down in smaller button size clumps 

[bearman]

Looks like heavy returns in Kentucky. I would think it is ripping under them.

[jaxjagman]

On 1/31/2026 at 11:26 AM, jaxjagman said:

Gonna be a Valentines Sweetheart for someone and the Kiss of Death for someone.Hard to figure this one out but its still a couple weeks out.GEFS shows the NAO/PNA possibly crapping out FOR US,but we are talking two weeks away/JMA has the MJO moving through P1-2,thats typically a cold look in J/F/M

Be very cautious what the models show show into the extended pattern