Is we back? February discussion thread

[Typhoon Tip]

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty decent model agreement on a complete shift from what we are seeing now in about 10-14 days. It’s that time of year.

Going to take a long time to melt out, but definitely could be some nice days towards mid March 

How about 5" of basin rain into this pack at 55F whilst the ground beneath is still frozen

mm? mmm?

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like Thursday night is coming !

[OrangeCTWX]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

People should learn what indices are, what they mean.

It would offer a huge manifold of knowledge, from which one may then understand operational models with better predictive skill. 

In this case, the indices (derived by weight the ensemble) support the emerging/ steadily increasing warm signal that we are seeing in the operationals. It doesn't mean that will go on forever until Earth's sitting on the surface of the sun... At some point the signal with "max" and or suffer daily idiosyncratic aspects not presently seen... But in principle, the totality of it would mean the end of winter and the onset of spring.   Yup. 

Right now ... you didn't ask but I'm fine with holding hyperbole to 'melt and mud season' - use that as a basis and then add if (and we probably will have to - ) we need. 

Yes thats definitely what I was implying with my post. 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

 

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

 

I think the Old Farmers Almanac was more accurate. 

[met_fan]

21 hours ago, radarman said:

I'd put my average at like 55" but who knows.  We haven't sniffed 55" in years.  But I'm at 68" atm

Oh wow, 68”? - that’s Belchertown? That’s like 25” higher than across the river here.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

HUH?  Lol. 

[radarman]

55 minutes ago, met_fan said:

Oh wow, 68”? - that’s Belchertown? That’s like 25” higher than across the river here.

70 after today!  

[JACKASS]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

HUH?  Lol. 

To dumb it down for you;  there's more yellow, orange, and reds than shades of blue across the globe.

[met_fan]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

70 after today!  

  Crazy, because I work in Ware and they have been pretty much similar to my backyard for every snowfall this year.

[radarman]

1 minute ago, met_fan said:

  Crazy, because I work in Ware and they have been pretty much similar to my backyard for every snowfall this year.

Unclear what the differences are but here's my event log fwiw.  Have pics of a lot of these-

25/26 70"

12/2 6.5" moderate pac s/w, cold air in place, retreating hp, primary near BM, but warm layer pushed far inland. SN->ZR/RN with fluff overnight

12/14 2" weak ocean storm / amplification moving offshore, cold temps.  Small flakes fell all morning, bit of an IVT. 6-8" jackpot NYC/NJ  

12/23 1" E Canada clipper to the south and west.  Minor bust, late burst for White christmas

12/26 5" light. Another clipper focused CT/NY but a nice late burst/mesoband did us good.

1/1 2" beautiful fluff with weak N stream disturbance followed by arctic fropa

1/4 .5" light snows with weak, dry clipper

1/6 .5" more light northern stream action, 2-4" inches up north

1/7 .5" sleet, wet flakes.  Followed by some rain.  Net loss.

1/17 5" two part clipper, light overnight to dense and sticky. Overperformer

1/18 4.5" an inch dense as moisture streamed in, then 3.5" fluffy overnight mid-level magic from ocean storm

1/21 2" fluff.  Surprise northern stream waa event over deep cold air.  4" in N CT/ ORH

1/25-26 22".  2 part HECS with true arctic airmass.  Swfe on roids dropped 15" settled, small dense flakes, then 7" on day 2, pure downy fluff.

2/7 4".  Northern stream s/w, arctic fropa hooking into distant ocean storm.  Cold, high ratio fluff.  Overperformed.  Crushed NEMA, SECT.

2/10 .5". Northern stream convective blobs on a weak fropa. Bad sounding w/ warmish temps, dry air.  Minor bust locally.

2/20 4" heavy.  snow to sleet to snow on a swfe, redeveloper.

2/23 8" dense.  All time blizzard. SEMA/RI jack.  Fringed a bit. Windy, dry snow. 

2/25 2" fluffy.  Fairly vigorous, fast moving northern stream s/w. Widespread 1-3" in SNE

[met_fan]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

Unclear what the differences are but here's my event log fwiw.  Have pics of a lot of these-

25/26 70"

12/2 6.5" moderate pac s/w, cold air in place, retreating hp, primary near BM, but warm layer pushed far inland. SN->ZR/RN with fluff overnight

12/14 2" weak ocean storm / amplification moving offshore, cold temps.  Small flakes fell all morning, bit of an IVT. 6-8" jackpot NYC/NJ  

12/23 1" E Canada clipper to the south and west.  Minor bust, late burst for White christmas

12/26 5" light. Another clipper focused CT/NY but a nice late burst/mesoband did us good.

1/1 2" beautiful fluff with weak N stream disturbance followed by arctic fropa

1/4 .5" light snows with weak, dry clipper

1/6 .5" more light northern stream action, 2-4" inches up north

1/7 .5" sleet, wet flakes.  Followed by some rain.  Net loss.

1/17 5" two part clipper, light overnight to dense and sticky. Overperformer

1/18 4.5" an inch dense as moisture streamed in, then 3.5" fluffy overnight mid-level magic from ocean storm

1/21 2" fluff.  Surprise northern stream waa event over deep cold air.  4" in N CT/ ORH

1/25-26 22".  2 part HECS with true arctic airmass.  Swfe on roids dropped 15" settled, small dense flakes, then 7" on day 2, pure downy fluff.

2/7 4".  Northern stream s/w, arctic fropa hooking into distant ocean storm.  Cold, high ratio fluff.  Overperformed.  Crushed NEMA, SECT.

2/10 .5". Northern stream convective blobs on a weak fropa. Bad sounding w/ warmish temps, dry air.  Minor bust locally.

2/20 4" heavy.  snow to sleet to snow on a swfe, redeveloper.

2/23 8" dense.  All time blizzard. SEMA/RI jack.  Fringed a bit. Windy, dry snow. 

2/25 2" fluffy.  Fairly vigorous, fast moving northern stream s/w. Widespread 1-3" in SNE

I’m not doubting you at all - sorry if I gave that impression

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, met_fan said:

I’m not doubting you at all - sorry if I gave that impression

No worries whatsoever.. I know it seems locally high.  

The overall number of events has been impressive.  Even the pennies have added up this year.  Will mentioned my area, in far east Btown, is sort of banked up against the western slope of the ORH hills, mild as it may be.  But the active northern stream disturbances have suited us pretty well even if the differences might only be a quarter inch here, an inch there or whatever.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, radarman said:

70 after today!  

Jeezuz, , how is everybody in SNE 15”-20” ahead of Greenfield and Brattleboro?  
A lot of Massachusetts is ahead of Berkshire East at this point! A good friend of mine is the marketing guy up there so I’ll ask him what their season to date total is.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, met_fan said:

I’m not doubting you at all - sorry if I gave that impression

I think Franklin County and Berkshire County have been on the short end of the measuring stick this year and that’s just how it goes.
Probably Albany too?

[radarman]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think Franklin County and Berkshire County have been on the short end of the measuring stick this year and that’s just how it goes.
Probably Albany too?

Not sure about Albany in the HV but I feel like parts of the Catskills have done great this year.  Esp north western Catskills.  I skied Plattekill in Roxbury for the first time this year (love it btw) and have been paying attention to their ski reports and totals.  They've gotten hit hard.

A number of systems have been driven SSE through there and skirted parts of SNE and CNE moreso than a traditional clipper track.

[met_fan]

6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Not sure about Albany in the HV but I feel like parts of Catskills have done great this year.  Esp north western Catskills.  I skied Plattekill in Roxbury for the first time this year (love it btw) and have been paying attention to their ski reports and totals.  They've gotten hit hard.

A number of systems have been driven SSE through there and skirted parts of SNE and CNE moreso than a traditional clipper track.

Albany is around 55”, but areas outside of the valley there have done better

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, met_fan said:

Albany is around 55”, but areas outside of the valley there have done better

Average there is like 62” or something, so a good winter so far.

[OrangeCTWX]

Let’s snow next Monday and then install the following week

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Let’s snow next Monday and then install the following week

You laugh. Someone will be doing just that, if those temps verify.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

To dumb it down for you;  there's more yellow, orange, and reds than shades of blue across the globe.

Well I was pretty sure that’s what he was getting at…but I just don’t know why it can’t be said in plain language. 

[JACKASS]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well I was pretty sure that’s what he was getting at…but I just don’t know why it can’t be said in plain language. 

Not everyone needs to communicate at a level suitable for you to grasp.

LOL @ "plain language"!!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Not everyone needs to communicate at a level suitable for you to grasp.

LOL @ "plain language"!!

Hey asswipe…piss off. How’s that for plain language. 

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey asswipe…piss off. How’s that for plain language. 

Aww, LMAO

And you're a school teacher?

FUCK!!!

[Kitz Craver]

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Aww, LMAO

And you're a school teacher?

FUCK!!!

And you’re a Jack ass…perfect user name for you. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Jeezuz, , how is everybody in SNE 15”-20” ahead of Greenfield and Brattleboro?  
A lot of Massachusetts is ahead of Berkshire East at this point! A good friend of mine is the marketing guy up there so I’ll ask him what their season to date total is.

I’ve snuck above 80”.   Might be sneaking to B’East in a couple of weeks…