Is we back? February discussion thread

[Typhoon Tip]

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty decent model agreement on a complete shift from what we are seeing now in about 10-14 days. It’s that time of year.

Going to take a long time to melt out, but definitely could be some nice days towards mid March 

How about 5" of basin rain into this pack at 55F whilst the ground beneath is still frozen

mm? mmm?

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like Thursday night is coming !

[OrangeCTWX]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

People should learn what indices are, what they mean.

It would offer a huge manifold of knowledge, from which one may then understand operational models with better predictive skill. 

In this case, the indices (derived by weight the ensemble) support the emerging/ steadily increasing warm signal that we are seeing in the operationals. It doesn't mean that will go on forever until Earth's sitting on the surface of the sun... At some point the signal with "max" and or suffer daily idiosyncratic aspects not presently seen... But in principle, the totality of it would mean the end of winter and the onset of spring.   Yup. 

Right now ... you didn't ask but I'm fine with holding hyperbole to 'melt and mud season' - use that as a basis and then add if (and we probably will have to - ) we need. 

Yes thats definitely what I was implying with my post. 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

 

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

 

I think the Old Farmers Almanac was more accurate. 

[met_fan]

21 hours ago, radarman said:

I'd put my average at like 55" but who knows.  We haven't sniffed 55" in years.  But I'm at 68" atm

Oh wow, 68”? - that’s Belchertown? That’s like 25” higher than across the river here.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

HUH?  Lol. 

[radarman]

55 minutes ago, met_fan said:

Oh wow, 68”? - that’s Belchertown? That’s like 25” higher than across the river here.

70 after today!  

[JACKASS]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

HUH?  Lol. 

To dumb it down for you;  there's more yellow, orange, and reds than shades of blue across the globe.

[met_fan]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

70 after today!  

  Crazy, because I work in Ware and they have been pretty much similar to my backyard for every snowfall this year.

[radarman]

1 minute ago, met_fan said:

  Crazy, because I work in Ware and they have been pretty much similar to my backyard for every snowfall this year.

Unclear what the differences are but here's my event log fwiw.  Have pics of a lot of these-

25/26 70"

12/2 6.5" moderate pac s/w, cold air in place, retreating hp, primary near BM, but warm layer pushed far inland. SN->ZR/RN with fluff overnight

12/14 2" weak ocean storm / amplification moving offshore, cold temps.  Small flakes fell all morning, bit of an IVT. 6-8" jackpot NYC/NJ  

12/23 1" E Canada clipper to the south and west.  Minor bust, late burst for White christmas

12/26 5" light. Another clipper focused CT/NY but a nice late burst/mesoband did us good.

1/1 2" beautiful fluff with weak N stream disturbance followed by arctic fropa

1/4 .5" light snows with weak, dry clipper

1/6 .5" more light northern stream action, 2-4" inches up north

1/7 .5" sleet, wet flakes.  Followed by some rain.  Net loss.

1/17 5" two part clipper, light overnight to dense and sticky. Overperformer

1/18 4.5" an inch dense as moisture streamed in, then 3.5" fluffy overnight mid-level magic from ocean storm

1/21 2" fluff.  Surprise northern stream waa event over deep cold air.  4" in N CT/ ORH

1/25-26 22".  2 part HECS with true arctic airmass.  Swfe on roids dropped 15" settled, small dense flakes, then 7" on day 2, pure downy fluff.

2/7 4".  Northern stream s/w, arctic fropa hooking into distant ocean storm.  Cold, high ratio fluff.  Overperformed.  Crushed NEMA, SECT.

2/10 .5". Northern stream convective blobs on a weak fropa. Bad sounding w/ warmish temps, dry air.  Minor bust locally.

2/20 4" heavy.  snow to sleet to snow on a swfe, redeveloper.

2/23 8" dense.  All time blizzard. SEMA/RI jack.  Fringed a bit. Windy, dry snow. 

2/25 2" fluffy.  Fairly vigorous, fast moving northern stream s/w. Widespread 1-3" in SNE